Glenn E Meyer said:
I read a legal scholarly book on the court's decision processes. The best predictor was pre-existing political beliefs. Precedents are then searched to support the political position.
The exception is the member who regards self as king maker and goes back and forth for personal power and influence over others.
That's how you get the 5/4 decisions many times.
Let's focus on the RKBA components and not stray much into general politics or this will get shut down also.
Glenn, you've floated this idea that court decisions are sub-rational before. It is literally anti-intellectual[EDIT - that isn't offered rhetorically or as a euphemism for something else, but to suggest that it devalues the currency of ideas]. Simply correlating prior positions with decisions doesn't support a conclusion that a decision is made, then
Precedents are then searched to support the political position.
Scalia's decision in the flag burning case wasn't a result of his affection for flag burning, but a coherent first amendment analysis. He wasn't a criminal, but upheld the rights of criminal defendants if that was where the analysis led. Thomas wasn't a MJ enthusiast, but would have prohibited federal prosecution of a fellow for growing his own MJ that wasn't destined for interstate commerce.
Where a person's conclusion is based upon a stated analysis, it is fair to give the analysis scrutiny. To first disregard the role of an analysis as mere apology for a subrational urge to reach a particular decision would be an error.
The more reasonable explanation of the correlation of prior positions and a decision is that both were taken on the basis of a coherent view; they may correlate because they have a common basis.
I do suspect that O'Connor's incessant shifting had a cynically political element (political in the context of her power on the court, not in a general way), but that shouldn't suggest that the other eight were less sincere or conscious in their analyses.
The power of Scalia to change our view of constitutional jurisprudence didn't rest in changing the results people preferred, but the rigor and fidelity to text expected of a constitutional decision.
To paraphrase Ron Burgundy, "It's kind of a big deal".
I know we have different professionally based views on this, but I am often surprised by how often people under oath will tell me what they really think, even when disclosing the truth isn't in their interest.