I get awful tired of posting on this, and as I said before, there are tons and TONS of posting here for people to read about if they do a search. There should really be a specific forum on TFL for discussing handgun bullet effectiveness.
Any load can fail. A 115gr at 1300+ FPS can fail if you hit the arm, or some other body part that is not going to produce an incapacitating wound. I think no one here will disagree on that point. The 115gr bullets at 1300+ FPS have a lot of Kinetic Energy. This is why some people suggest you use them.
A 115gr 1300+ FPS bullet that hits your bullet proof vest delivers all of its Kinetic Energy. It does not deal you any harm. Why? Because it doesn't hit any part of your body that could incapacitate you. Therefore Kinetic Energy alone, is meaningless. Thus all people here would agree that a bullet needs to penetrate correct?
The question is how far does the bullet need to penetrate to be effective? Here is where disagreement starts to arise.
Expanding a hollowpoint bullet requires a certain amount of energy. The lead must be bent out of shape (kinda like a lot of people who get into these debates
) thus we need a certain amount of the energy in the bullet to expand it. When the bullet expands, it has more resistance to moving forward than it did before. Thus the hole created by the bullet as it is crushing tissue while moving forward is bigger. This reduces penetration. Thus, a bullet with a larger expanded diameter should penetrate less than a bullet with a smaller expanded diameter. This, however is not the case with the 115gr bullets.
According to the California Highway Patrol's bare gelatin testing:
pen = penetration, RD = Retained Diameter, RW = Retained weight.
9mm Corbon +P 115 gr JHP: Vel=1367f/s; pen=10.2"; RD=0.50"; RW=70.5gr
9mm Federal 147 gr JHP (9MS): Vel=961 f/s, pen=12.3", RD=0.61" RW=147.1gr
As you can see the 147gr bullet penetrated farther, and has a larger expanded diameter than the 115gr bullet. The 115gr bullet fragmented during travel, and while in a rifle bullet this contributes to wounding, the same is not true for pistol bullets. The fragments are found along the would track (rather than outside of it).
Some people do not accept gelatin results. They prefer to rely on the "word on the street" which is often based on the opinions of gun writers who are not forced to verify their information. Since this is not the Soviet Union, or China, we will not be able to take real human beings, and test bullets on them in a scientific environment. We can however, examine bullets that have been fired into criminals after the fact. As has been mentioned in other posts, the 147's fired into real people are penetrating 13-15 inches and expanding to between .60 and .62 in humans. At least in California. Perhaps people have different bodies in California than they do elsewhere. The problem with Marshall and Sanow's OSS percentage is that there are many, many reasons why a person "stops". Many of these reasons are psychological. We cannot rely on psychological reasons, unless we can give a psychological interview to each person we think we might have to shoot one day, and determine whether they are likely to stop from a non-lethal wound. We can, however rely on a physiological causes of a person stopping. One way is to disrupt the Central Nervous system directly. The other way is to cause the person to lose enough blood that their brain is unable to function due to a lack of oxygen delivery.
So... how much penetration do you need? That depends. How big is the guy you are shooting? If he's a scrawney guy like me, and you are facing him head on, 10" is probably enough. But 14" isn't too much... because it requires 6X as much force to exit the body. This is why many bullets are found just under the skin of the victim. When you consider that your bullet ha a diameter of .60" and isn't moving that fast, it's easy to see how your elastic skin could keep it contained. Unfortunately, bullets can, and often do, do strange things. They, *gasp* don't always travel in straight lines! You might not be facing me head on! You might have to shoot through my arm (which has a rather thick bone in it). Your bullet, might not penetrate as far in the flesh as it does in gelatin! I might be, a BIG GUY, with BIG MUSCLES. Or I could be a FAT GUY with LOTS of FAT. Ever see guys like that? Ever watch those shows where they show you guys in prison? Where they are lifting weights. Ever see many skinny guys in there? Mike Coates was carrying 145gr .357Magnum Winchester Silvertips.
the 2nd pen and RD is after denim. These are the FBI tests.
.357 Mag 145 gr STHP: Vel=1166 f/s, pen=15.8", RD=0.58", pen=12.9", RD=.64"
Yet all 5 failed to penetrate deep enough.
They had a lot of Kinetic Energy, and a lot of penetration, and a large expanded diameter, but they didn't penetrate deep enough to hit a spine. This being the case, one can only say that tactics are more important than bullets, and shot placement is more important than bullet choice.
What do hunters carry? Bullets that penetrate. Why would you want anything different? Are animals any different than people physically?
The one case a person might make against the 147's is that because they penetrate deeper, there is a greater case that they will over-penetrate, and hit innocents. I have asked before, and still have found NO incident where a 9mm 147gr JHP after striking a reasonable part of the anatomy, exited the body. The FBI's rational for not worrying about over-penetration is that since they miss 85% of the time, why worry about it? Most .45ACP 230gr Hard Ball rounds fail to exit the body. The only bullet with a history of doing so is the FMJ 9mm. This is why the NYPD switched from carrying 9mm FMJ, they currently carry 124gr +P Gold Dots. They penetrate 13.4" and expand to .68" in FBI tests.
Thus while I think that well designed 124gr bullets are acceptable, and 147gr bullets are ideal, 115's don't get adequate penetration to be effective.
The compromise seems to be to go to 124gr if you are still a member of the energy school, but want adequate penetration. That being said, I prefer the performance offered by the 147gr bullets.
-Morgan