Why Third Parties Don't Win Elections

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TheBluesMan

Moderator Emeritus
Source: http://hammeroftruth.com/2006/07/13/the-walls-third-parties-face-at-every-turn/

Why Third Parties Don’t Win Elections
by Stephen VanDyke

We hear it again and again in the news: voters are unhappy with Democrats and Republicans, approval of both major parties is in the dumps and there’s a general dislike for the status quo. So this year, more than any other, I want to give voters the low-down on why the status quo is going to stay the same. Sadly, whether you like it or not. It’s a problem that we’ve only recently become aware of with some regularity thanks to the decrentralization of the Internet: the system is rigged this way.

You see, the truth is that even as more and more independent candidates are being fielded for office each year, the number of them actually being elected has remained relatively flat (that’s not to say it never happens, but that it’s just so rare that it’s relatively unnoticeable). I’ve decided it’s in everyone’s political best interests to identify and break down these walls that have been erected by both incumbents and an apathetic media for third parties in this country. Here’s my rough take on what these are (in order of apparent priority):
  • Restrictive ballot access laws
    If a major party candidate can keep rivals off the ballot, they can then ignore those voter’s concerns without fear of losing (especially if their major party rival does the same). Ignoring contrarian viewpoints has traditionally been a cornerstone of repressive government. Fair and equal ballot access reform should be a priority for all third parties and anyone interested in true political reform. Third parties largely need to move on from this issue if their only contention is that they aren’t recognized as a party, but their candidates have the same signature requirements as major parties.

  • Lackluster media coverage
    Traditionally, third party candidates have to sell their ideas much harder than their major party rivals because media organizations typically don’t find anything newsworthy about them (unless they are beating the voter disaffection drum and pretending to care). Sadly, this directly translates into lost votes since an uninformed voter will not vote for a candidate they have heard little or nothing about. Whether this is intentional slighting on the part of some media outlets or just laziness in covering politics is debatable. The most-covered independent campaigns are typically ones that field either a star/celebrity candidate (Kinky Friedman anyone?) or use novel approaches (read: publicity stunts) to force their way into the public eye.

  • Fundraising and volunteers
    This deserves to go after the media coverage, because while a campaign is usually small when it’s starting, the coverage of the campaign is what drives informed voters to begin financially supporting and volunteering for a campaign. Once the media coverage is triggered, a campaign can typically sustain it’s momentum through increased news generation, campaign events and fundraisers.

  • Inclusive polling
    Many pollsters will often lump all third parties into “other” categories or not include them at all. Unfortunately, without the aforementioned media coverage, when they are included they often fall into the 2% margins which can harm campaigns even more than not being included. One way that third parties can attack this issue is by openly criticizing the pollsters who are not inclusive and paying for their own push polls to publicize themselves further. Another method is to sue state-funded university pollsters and take the case to a federal level.

  • Debating major candidates
    The bar has been set excruciatingly high for third parties, with organizations like the League of Women’s voters demanding 10-15% polling. This will never happen until the conditions above are met. Presidential candidates Michael Badnarik (L) and David Cobb (G) were arrested while trying to serve papers to cease the debates in 2004, but in reality it was little more than a variation of the publicity stunt angle, which paid off poorly for them to actually be in the debate, though it did help their publicity substantially (at least on the Internet).

  • Election day (voting methods)
    This is the last hurdle for third parties, and is often the most difficult. While many argue for a reform to Condorcet or IRV (Instant Runoff Voting), the reality is that those are both methods that are meant to short-circuit all the problems above. While logically we should be able to vote for candidates in order of ranked preference, it shouldn’t matter unless the race is a three-way extremely tight one. Personally, I would like to see this stay the last priority for third parties, since it’s not bound to change the outcome if their candidates remain unknown because of the walls stated before.
I won’t bore you with a lot of speculation on how these can all be miraculously fixed overnight, because the truth is we’re probably looking at a tough decade of electoral reform in fifty different wars for us to even have just a slim super-minority of candidates in federal office. I don’t look at our battles from an ideological presentation standpoint, because I truly don’t think that what’s been holding third parties back (Libertarian especially) is bad reception of the platform, or the pledge, or whatever.

I’m sure some people are always going to look at third parties and sniff their noses at one or two issues, leaving reformers and purists to duke it out amongst each other because they think that’s why they keep losing races. But in reality, it’s not.

This is a good presentation which highlights many sound reasons why third parties don't have a fair chance in this country. Radically altering voting methods isn't the panacea for third parties. They need to be recognized and included at every step of the political process.
 
Here's something that severely bugs me about voting...

The monstrosity known as the Electoral College, why do we need government to choose our president for us? The Electoral College can vote however it wants to regardless of the popular vote. (As proven with Electile Dysfunction 2000!) So why are we trusting a group of anonymous individuals to vote for us? It kind of kills the point of going to the polls doesn't it? Here's something else, how come I can't transfer my credits and graduate from the Electoral College, and why won't they accept me as a student?:rolleyes:


Epyon
 
TheBluesMan,
Very good article!
They need to be recognized and included at every step of the political process.

Unfortunately, it's the Democrats and Republicans who are making the laws. They don't want a third party.
So how do we force them to do this?
 
The Electoral College can vote however it wants to regardless of the popular vote. (As proven with Electile Dysfunction 2000!)
Please cite a source to prove the latter statement.
 
Epyon, you're confusing different aspects of the electoral system.

First, the vote for president is, for each state, a popular vote. However, it's a winner-take-all popular vote system in almost all states. That is State Law. States can allocate electoral votes however they want.

Second, the electors don't have to vote for their party's candidate, but they almost always do. The election outcome in 2000 was caused by the winner-take-all electoral system, and had nothing to do with electors switching their votes.
 
Moving on to more substantive issues...

# Election day (voting methods)
This is the last hurdle for third parties, and is often the most difficult. While many argue for a reform to Condorcet or IRV (Instant Runoff Voting), the reality is that those are both methods that are meant to short-circuit all the problems above. While logically we should be able to vote for candidates in order of ranked preference, it shouldn’t matter unless the race is a three-way extremely tight one. Personally, I would like to see this stay the last priority for third parties, since it’s not bound to change the outcome if their candidates remain unknown because of the walls stated before.
I vehemently disagree. I think Mr. VanDyke is confusing cause and effect.

People are not interested in 3rd party campaigns because they intuitively understand the voting system. The voting system only allows voting for one candidate, and the winner generally takes all. That leads to undesirable voting behavior by everyone; idealists waste their vote on third parties, while mainstream voters vote for a major party even though they're both terrible.

People intuitively understand that they need to vote for a candidate who has a chance at winning. There are rarely more than two such candidates (1992 was an anomaly, and it reinforced the lesson). Because there are only two viable candidates in modern times, people are forced -- by the voting system -- to vote for the lesser of two evils.

Why should they care about 3rd party campaigns when they can't justify voting for 3rd parties? It's a game theoretic nightmare.
 
Epyon said:
The monstrosity known as the Electoral College, why do we need government to choose our president for us? The Electoral College can vote however it wants to regardless of the popular vote.
First off, the constitution mandates the state electing the president, not the population. Popular vote rules the day all the way up to the state level. At that point popular vote elects electors who represent the state. States can decide to apportion their vote but it is ill advised. Key to understanding the electoral college is to remember the United States is a nation of states. The states are charged with electing the president, not the populace. Those who haven't studied the electoral college haven't thought their way through the implications of direct election by the voter. Perhaps someone could start a thread discussing the implications of direct vote for president.

In any case part of the checks and balances built into our system is the balance between popular representation and federal representation. Dead european white guys fixed the problem with direct representation at the national level (house of reps) and federal representation (senate). Originally senators were employees of their states; elected by and paid for by their states. The senate was such a powerless organization that states had a hard time convincing politicians to do a term in DC representing the state. To instill a little enthusiasm for the job congress passed and the states ratified the 19th amendment (IIRC) mandating direct election of senators. PERHAPS THE BIGGEST BONER WE EVER MADE. A lot of our current stupidity in congress is directly related to aforementioned boner. I maintain direction election of a president will quickly assume the title of Biggest Boner. There are a number of compelling reasons for NOT electing the president by popular vote.
 
The monstrosity known as the Electoral College, why do we need government to choose our president for us? The Electoral College can vote however it wants to regardless of the popular vote.
That would lead to the cheater states rigging the entire election instead of just their state's results.
 
idealists waste their vote on third parties, while mainstream voters vote for a major party even though they're both terrible.
At least I can say that I didn't vote for either dimwit. Also, people who try and badmouth you on such politics have a hard time because they don't realize that there are other parties.:rolleyes:
 
Oh, I don't disagree. Voting 3rd party has advantages. We just can't claim to be voting for someone with a realistic chance of winning. :)

(Exceptions, like Ventura's run for Governor and perhaps Perot's run for President in '92, are easy to spot ahead of time... it was obvious that those 3rd party candidates were unusually strong. And even then, like in Perot's case, they probably won't win.)
 
Here's an idea...

Let's start my campaign on presidency! From this day forward, I hereby establish... the Pizza Party, the Surprise Party, the Birthday Party, and the Slumber Part!! Hooray! Epyon 2008! Vote for me! If you vote for me, all of your wildest dreams will come true! I've decided on my running mate... the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles! :D


Epyon


This campaign was brought to you by Epyon; funded in part by the Pizza Party, Surprise Party, Birthday Party, and Slumber Party.
 
One important factor that Mr. VanDyke left out was politically unattractive candidates. Does anyone remember Perot's meltdown, when he began talking about Bush I sending black helicopters to invade his daughter's wedding (or some such nonsense)? Also, I was in California during the recall of Gray Davis--the man who put "goober" back into gubernatorial. I saw the televised "debate" between Arnold, McClintock, Huffington, etc. Arnold looked the best of the lot, and he didn't look all that good. McClintock looked like he had arrived at the wrong birthday party with the wrong present. The rest ... well, they should have phoned home, because the mother ship must have left them behind.

Candidates from the two major parties aren't often much to brag about, but geez, most of the third party folks I've seen are downright scary (not to besmirch the honorable Teddy Roosevelt and his foray into the Bull Moose party). Of late, Pat Buchannon was probably the most viable, even if you can't stomach his politics.

With the stranglehold that the two major parties have on our politics, a third party is an uphill battle. Most people with serious political ambitions will probably cast their lot with the majors rather than risk a third-party run. It's a bit like getting good football players to ignore the AFC and NFC to start another football league. Some might try it; most will go with what they know.

As for the Electoral College, that system--though imperfect--saves our national election process from becoming total mob rule. Smaller states may end up getting a bigger voice in the election than is their fair share, but at least they have a voice. Without the EC--a brilliant piece of realistic political foresight--many of the smaller states would have little reason to vote.
 
Third party candidates do win some local elections. Thats the way it should be, and its about the only level of elections where this is possible. In many Democratic Countries, there is power sharing based on the amount of votes cast for each party entered. Third, and indeed even smaller parties can share in some of the decision making.
In America though, for the Presidential election, its 'winner take all'. There is no power sharing. No third party can garner enough votes to win, so IHMO, every third party vote in a Presidential election is a wasted vote, or even worse, a vote that really counts for the opposition. The winner alone makes policy come the following January.

The comments on the Electoral College deserve an entire thread of it's own.
 
Local elections are one thing, but if you are not pleased with your presidential choices, then instead of choosing the lesser of two evils you just shouldn't vote. Register, show up to the polls, vote for a senator or any legislation that you support, and then leave. Statistically you will show up as a proud American who excersied their right to vote, but you will have effectively nuked your ballot and won't be helping either candidate. If enough people in this country started doing that, the quality of politicians would have to go up because they would have to start running on real issues instead of playing divide and conquer.
 
Huchahucha, I'm tempted not to vote in any federal or state race with only democratic and republican candidates (barring someone exceptional like Ron Paul). I think that's going to be my policy from now on. Local elections I'll vote on. Policy issues I'll vote on. Just not party-controlled puppets.

Mannlicher said:
In America though, for the Presidential election, its 'winner take all'. There is no power sharing.
How would you propose to have power-sharing in a single elected position? The President must be unitary. The president's powers are (supposed to be) extremely limited, so there's no particular reason to neuter them further by turning the position of President into a committee.

If you're talking about elections for Congress being distributed by party according to party vote, that's also objectionable. I want to know who I'm voting for. I don't want to vote for a party and have a pool of party representatives who will be chosen from. Also, changing to a proportional-representation election scheme would eliminate the geographical nature of voting. Right now, one geographical region votes for one candidate (two candidates in the case of Federal Senatorial elections). With proportional voting, a much larger geographical region votes for multiple candidates.

Voters can't research more than a few individual politicians, which is why proportional voting systems in other countries have voters vote for parties rather than individuals. With proportional voting, Texas might have 5-8 parties, and it's bad enough to expect a voter to be adequately familiar with all of them. If you want a multiple-winner election for, say Texas's (Federal) Congressional Representatives, you're expecting everyone in the state to be familiar with probably upwards of 70 candidates. That's not remotely feasible.

Mannlicher said:
[...] every third party vote in a Presidential election is a wasted vote, or even worse, a vote that really counts for the opposition.
Nope. A vote for a 3rd party is the same (for purposes of the election) as not voting. A third-party or uncast vote has only half the effect of voting for the major-party "opposition".
Bush vs Gore vs Other. If the votes are x to y to z, and you're the last voter:
a) You vote for Bush. New major-party votes: x+1, y... Bush's margin increases by 1.
b) You vote for Gore. New major-party votes: x, y+1... Bush's margin decreases by 1.
c) You vote for a 3rd party, or you don't vote: x, y... Bush's margin stays the same.
 
+1 WhyteP38, our local third party loosers would scare Karl Marx off his grog!
It's worse at the national level.
 
+1 WhyteP38, our local third party loosers would scare Karl Marx off his grog!
It's worse at the national level.
Yeah, and it's a shame. I'd like to have choices other than Coke or Pepsi. Or worse, Pepsi or Diet Pepsi.

But ... if ya wanna get elected, you go with what will get ya elected. Tilting at windmills doesn't pay the rent.

Oh ... forgot to add ... the funniest line of the recall campaign. Arnold was giving a radio interview and was asked about CA's marriage-protection ballot initiative. He replied, "I think that gay marriage should be between a man and a woman." How's that for being on both sides of an issue? :)

Funny stuff. Most people thought he had misspoken, but sometimes you have to wonder if he was thinking of Michael and Arianna Huffington at the time.
 
Tyme, you have convinced me!

Since I would otherwise not vote -- and I did not, in fact, vote after 1976 and prior to 2004, on the belief that "it only encourages them" -- I shall continue to vote for third party candidates. Because otherwise I would rarely be able to vote for anyone at all!

I refuse to hold my nose and vote. The lesser of two evils is still evil and it remains evil no matter how many people vote for it.
 
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