What Social Security Crisis?

Wallew

Moderator
In 1935, wealthy liberal do-gooder Franklin Delano Roosevelt, the most notorious violator of Constitutional federalism in the 20th Century, found a clause in that venerable document authorizing the central government to provide retirement benefits for all Americans. Apparently, 100 years earlier, that clause did not exist. So claimed another Democrat, Tennessee's Davy Crockett, who rose on the floor of Congress and chastised his colleagues for their proposal to appropriate benefits for the widow of a distinguished naval officer.

Crockett protested: "I will not go into an argument to prove that Congress has no power to appropriate this money as an act of charity. Every member upon this floor knows it. We have the right, as individuals, to give away as much of our own money as we please in charity; but as members of Congress we...have not the semblance of authority to appropriate it as a charity."

Crockett was echoing the words of our Constitution's author, James Madison, who said, most eloquently, "I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence, the money of their constituents...." Madison further noted, "If Congress can do whatever in their discretion can be done by money, and will promote the General Welfare, the Government is no longer a limited one, possessing enumerated powers, but an indefinite one, subject to particular exceptions."

However, those words were long lost on FDR, who eviscerated federalism in his relentless endeavor to make the central government the agent of salvation for all ills. In June of 1934, he announced to Congress one lasting example of that endeavor -- his intent to create a nationalized Social Security program, ushering the United States into the ranks of Europe's welfare democracies. The nation was in the midst of the Great Depression, and FDR was funding his political dynasty by redistributing wealth. After all, as noted by George Bernard Shaw, "A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend upon the support of Paul." FDR's plan, like all unbridled populist-entitlement programs, was popular with the democratic majority -- and helped ensure his re-election to office three times.

Social Security's first beneficiary was Ernest Ackerman of Cleveland, Ohio, who retired one day after the Social Security Act was signed into law 14 August 1935. A nickel was withheld from Ackerman's final paycheck, but he received his one-time lump-sum Social Security payment ... 17 cents.

That 12-cent return was the beginning of unforeseen things to come. Soon, congressional amendments added benefits for spouses, minor children and survivors, and by 1950 the program assured virtually universal coverage. 1972 saw the addition of the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program (AKA "welfare"), and by 1975 the addition of annual Cost of Living djustments (COLAs) assured the SS juggernaut's exponential growth. In 1977, Medicare became an independent entitlement, spun off from the Social Security system. Today, despite its humble beginnings, the Social Security system confronts our young people with the grim prospect of paying for unfunded promises made to past generations.

Notwithstanding the "welfare reform" acts of the 1990s, when Social Security turned 65, SSI benefits covered 6,688,489 Americans at a cost of $32,165,856,000, while Social Security itself disbursed some 431,949,000,000 to 45,877,506 beneficiaries. However, those staggering numbers are mere chump change compared to what lies ahead.

President George W. Bush's modest proposal to reform Social Security appears to be a good start at diverting this behemoth from its collision course with insolvency. Predictably, though, the latest retort from the Left is, "What insolvency? What crisis?" Indeed, these do-nothing Demos claim the Fed's IOUs in Social Security's so-called "trust fund," combined with minor tweaks to the system, will keep it solvent for generations.

Well, not exactly. Unless Democrats plan to "tweak" the system by increasing both the retirement age and the current 12.4% SS tax, adding more government debt and reducing benefits, Social Security will not have the revenues to refund current IOUs and meet the SS revenue shortfall. IOUs? For generations, every dime forcibly taken from worker paychecks -- ostensibly to finance the non-existent SS "trust fund" -- has been taken from that fund and applied to other massive entitlement programs.

Social Security outlays now consume 4.28 percent of GDP but will exceed 6 percent in 20 years. There are two reasons for this growth: demographics and benefits increases.

There are 48 million Social Security beneficiaries today, but in 2030 there will be 84 million. In 1950, there were 16 SS taxpayers for every recipient. Now there are only 3.3 taxpayers for every recipient, and that will be reduced 30 percent by 2030. Additionally, when SSI was formed, life-expectancy was 61 years, which is to say, most Americans did not make it to 65. Now, however, average life expectancy is 77.

The second reason for the SSI balloon is that benefits have not been indexed to inflation. Future retirees are being guaranteed retirement increases that grow substantially faster than inflation.

Social Security, as currently managed, will incur an estimated unfunded liability of 27 trillion 2003 dollars over the next 75 years. To offset this jaw-slackening shortfall, President Bush has proposed the incremental privatization of some SSI taxes by allowing individuals under age 55 to invest in personal retirement accounts (PRAs). Additionally, Congress must resolve to index benefits to inflation.

The President's three-year PRA opt-in for SSI taxpayers born after 1950 would allow them to put up to four percent of their wages in their PRAs. At retirement, those invested in PRAs would be guaranteed to receive at least what their payout would be if they only had SSI income. But those beneficiaries whose PRAs have a higher return can share in that return, which reduces the burden on the SSI fund, and the principal balance is fully inheritable.

The PRA plan would "cost" about $664 billion in "lost" SSI revenue over the next ten years. Of course, this lost SSI revenue is merely revenue that's been moved to PRAs, and thus isn't available to "borrow" from the SSI trust fund for other entitlement programs -- and that's why the Demos are hopping mad. Still, all Americans need to understand that the PRA plan does not fully address the revenue shortfall crisis looming on the horizon. That crisis can be resolved only when Congress commits to bringing SSI benefits in line with SSI revenues.

http://FederalistPatriot.US/news/ssi.asp
 
One of the many things missing from this post is the money taken out of the "SSA Lockbox", how much it was and what impact its disappearance has on the compounding of the funds.

I'm certain that the author will provide these details.

Mind you, I have no problem with any and all proposals.

Just give me back the 6.2% that I've put into the fund and I'll go away quietly. Keep my employer's 6.2% and all the interest earned over time as my gift.
 
Every paycheck I get, I look at the money deducted for SS and say to myself, there is money I will never see again. Sadly, many people don't realise that. This country is broke and the war in Iraq is the least of our worries. We have crackheads getting "disability" benefits, while I am going through college with Stanford loans that I have to pay back and still don't cover all of my tuition. Border jumpers are getting more help than I am.

A guy (from Kalifornia no less.) used to live next to my family's house. He had 20+ illegal Mexicans in his basement. (I'm in North Dakota.) The Beaners (We use that term here to descibe illegals) and the "owner" went fishing on the weekend, then left the fish guts and beer cans on the front lawn when they came back. Then HE got pissed when people started to complain to him about the mess. He then yelled at the people who where complaining and managed to piss off about everyone in the neighborhood in a matter of a few weeks of the Beaners moving in. Then he is surprised when someone places a call to the INS and they haul him and his "workers" off to jail. He tries to sue the city for lost buisness, then gets a big dose of reality when the juge throws the case out. The juge told him "You may be able to pull that off in California, but not here." He then sells the house and moves due to "hostile neighbors." :p

Sorry for the rant, I'm just tired of all the crap that is going on in this country.
 
I am going through college with Stanford loans that I have to pay back and still don't cover all of my tuition

The interest on student loans is deductible in its entirety without any time or other factor limitations. As long as you file a tax return you'll be able to deduct 100% of the interest that you have paid on your loans.

Tuition expenses as such are also deductible in the "Hope" and "Lifetime" education credits also to be claimed on the tax return. Hope for the first two years and Lifetime thereafter without a time or age limit as the name Lifetime identifies.

The most basic of tax preparation services will file your return accordingly and the IRS will send you your money in about 14 days.

You can also file yourself for free at the http://www.irs.gov website and your refund will be processed even faster.

Apologies to Wallew for contributing to a diversion of his topic.
 
Tax deductible still does not mean that is is free. Say I pay $6000 in interest in student loans every year, being single that means that I only get a $603 tax break, leaving me to pay the other $5397 in real money.

Maybe its just that I am also a student in that I totally agree with crosshair
 
One of the things on SS that I have not seen covered by anyone, from the president on down is how come the government, when it runs out of money, is allowed to "borrow" from the SS fund, yet they never pay it back. :eek: :mad: That would go a long way towards reducing any chance of SS going broke. The democraps pushed that into law. mayber the republicans should remove that law from the books and them repay the system what they owe, with interest.
Now my question is this. Why hasn't anyone even looked into this aspect?
Paul B.
 
One of the things on SS that I have not seen covered by anyone, from the president on down is how come the government, when it runs out of money, is allowed to "borrow" from the SS fund, yet they never pay it back.

My question exactly in my earlier post.

Do not expect an answer to this one nor to the following two questions:

All economic models presented so far assume that this "borrowing" will cease and the "lock box" will not be further violated effective today! Really?

Even if one were to believe this, it begs the follow-up question as to where the government will find the money, at what cost and how it will pay for it.
 
The government has all the marbles. By law, any excess receipts in the Social Security Trust Fund MUST be invested in U.S. Treasury securities. When SS buys these bonds with SS "contributions", that money magically becomes part of "general revenues" and is available to be spent by the govt. THAT is why, in the years when there was "no deficit", total debt owed by the U.S. kept climbing. It was all smoke and mirrors. :barf:
 
As of 02/01/2004, according to David Walker, Comptroller of the US Gov't, overall Federal debt is $40 TRILLION. And, it is climbing. That is current debt and future obligations. That is more than three times the current Gross Domestic Product and about $100,000 of Federal public debt for each citizen of the USA.
 
A new immigration dispute
Goode opposes plan for Mexican workers to qualify for benefits

BY PETER HARDIN
TIMES-DISPATCH WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT Feb 13, 2005


WASHINGTON -- A Virginia Republican and some other foes of President Bush's immigration policy are seizing on a hot issue -- Social Security solvency -- to wield on the immigration front.




5th District Rep. Virgil H. Goode Jr. of Franklin County last week introduced a resolution telling President Bush not to submit for congressional approval an agreement with Mexico.

The pact "negatively impacts the Social Security system . . . and puts America's seniors at risk," the resolution stated. Goode was backed by 27 co-sponsors.

At a time Bush was talking about shoring up a Social Security system facing problems, Goode and his allies hoped pairing two volatile issues would help gain support in Congress.

The agreement would allow more Mexican workers who have labored in the United States, and their family members, to become eligible for Social Security benefits, and a number of illegal immigrants would be included.

The little-known pact has an unwieldy government name -- a totalization agreement -- and is similar to bilateral accords in place with 20 other nations.

It would coordinate the U.S. and Mexican social-security systems to avoid double taxation of multinational companies and their employees, and to protect benefits of employees who work in both countries.

The Social Security Administration has estimated the agreement would cost Social Security about $105 million per year during the first five years.

But Goode fears a larger, significant drain on Social Security at a time Bush has warned of fiscal jeopardy.

Goode quoted from a Government Accountability Office report from 2003. It labeled the cost of a Mexico agreement "highly uncertain" and questioned the potential impact on Social Security of millions of unauthorized Mexican workers here.

"I submit those who truly want to protect the Social Security Trust Fund need to exclaim a resounding 'No' to the proposed Totalization Agreement with Mexico," Goode said at a news conference.

"Estimates may vary, but I believe [the pact] will cost the Social Security Trust Fund billions, not millions" of dollars, he added.

"A significant new population, perhaps hundreds of thousands or millions, would have access to Social Security under a Mexico totalization agreement," warned Rep. J.D. Hayworth, R-Ariz. He has sponsored his own resolution for Congress to disapprove a Mexico pact.

Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo. and chairman of the Congressional Immigration Caucus, said Bush was telling citizens the Social Security system was in need of overhaul at the same time he intended to add as many as millions of workers to the rolls.

"On the stump, he's fond of saying he is wanting to present the Congress and the United States with big ideas. Well, some of those big ideas, like this, are pretty dumb," Tancredo said.

A Social Security spokesman had no comment on Goode's bid to kill the pact before Congress gets it. The agreement was signed by the U.S. Social Security commissioner and her Mexican counterpart June 29 and is still at the Social Security Administration, said the spokesman, Mark Lassiter.

Social Security's actuaries believe the agreement would have a negligible long-range effect on the Social Security trust funds, Lassiter said.

"This agreement eliminates a serious and unnecessary impediment to American and Mexican businesses and their employees," Commissioner of Social Security Jo Anne Barnhart said last year.

Some of the attacks on the Mexico pact are coming from people "well known for their opposition to immigration . . . and this may be another tool for them to use," said Deborah W. Meyers, an analyst with the Washington-based Migration Policy Institute, a think tank.

But George W. Grayson, a College of William and Mary government professor and authority on Mexico, said the pact could become a lot more expensive than similar agreements with other nations. Advancing it is "wrong-headed," he said.

Grayson, a former Democratic delegate in Virginia, saluted former colleague Goode.

"It's really politically incorrect to question benefits accruing to illegal aliens," Grayson said. "I don't think Virgil will get invited to the White House Cinco de Mayo party this year."
 
Organized crime. Both "parties" still run it. The current Congress and sitting President support it.

Still sometimes wonder why so many people trust and support people that lie to them and steal from them.
 
Lak,

The answer is simple...people have become desensitized to the rip-off. A great majority think that the status quo is how the system should actually work. The folks who know that this thing stinks like last weeks catch are too invested in their lives to go out and fight it like it needs to be fought. By that I mean with massive civil resistance and 'disobedience'.

No third party or whatever you want to call it is going to be allowed by those in power to upset the apple cart. The power brokers know it and are just as happy that some folks spin their wheels politically in what amounts to an impotent gesture. Those movements always get co-opted or assimilated anyway.

The level of discomfort and indignation simply has not gotten to the point where massive amounts of people are willing to be arrested and go to jail over it. This issue really needs to take on the deminsions of the civil rights struggle of the 50's and 60's. I can't speak for anyone else, but I'm typing this from the security of my home, not from a hideout or a prison cell so I'm not ready to take to the streets either. Time will tell, though.
 
congress doing something that really isnt allowed in the constitution....


wait a minute WHO LET THIS HAPPEN.


i thought our govt was SUPPOSED to play fair.


grrrr
 
gburner,

I did say sometimes. But I should perhaps have added that I meant people who should know better. To me there is an astounding level of compartmentalization evident in the way many people - that should know better - view our government and those in charge.
 
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