This Year's Deficit to Hit Record $427 Billion

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This Year's Deficit to Hit Record $427 Billion
Tuesday, January 25, 2005


WASHINGTON — The White House will project that this year's federal deficit (search) will hit $427 billion, a senior administration official said Tuesday, a record partly driven by wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The official, among three who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity, said the estimate was a conservative one that assumed some higher spending than other analysts use. Last February, the White House projected that the 2004 shortfall would hit $521 billion, only to see it come in at $412 billion.

The official said the figure represented progress because it would be smaller than last year's record $412 billion shortfall when compared to the size of the growing U.S. economy. That ratio is a key measure of the deficit's potency.

"Our projections will show we remain on track to cut the deficit in half by 2009," one of President Bush's (search) budget goals, the official told reporters.

Even so, the number was among a blizzard of figures released Tuesday that illustrated how federal deficits remain a problem that Bush and Congress must reckon with.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (search) said that thanks to tax cuts and hurricane aid passed since its last calculations in September, the 10-year deficit had worsened since then by $503 billion, not counting war expenditures.


The congressional analysts projected that this year's deficit would hit $368 billion — which would be the third highest ever — excluding war costs. Adding expenditures for Iraq and Afghanistan operations would push this year's red ink to about $400 billion, said Congress' nonpartisan budget analyst.

Underscoring budget pressures hounding lawmakers, senior administration officials invited reporters to the White House to outline their upcoming request for an additional $80 billion, or slightly more, to help pay this year's costs of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"I am grateful that Congress in a strong bipartisan fashion has consistently voted to support our troops, and I urge it to do so again," Bush said in a written statement.

There is little doubt lawmakers will follow Bush's lead, as they have repeatedly since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. The latest proposal would bring war spending so far to about $308 billion, including $25 billion to rebuild Iraq and Afghanistan, according to the Congressional Research Service, which provides reports to lawmakers.

Bush plans to send his 2006 budget to Congress on Feb. 7. It will not include a request for more war funds for that year, the officials said, saving that request for later.

Tuesday's forecast by the Congressional Budget Office was widely awaited at the start of a year when Bush and Republicans are likely to propose tight spending restraints — and battle Democrats and some GOP lawmakers over those plans.

The budget office projected $855 billion in shortfalls for the decade ending in 2015. The office estimated that deficits would gradually fade into slight surpluses by 2012 — but not many were taking that forecast at face value.

In making those estimates, the budget office assumed that current tax and spending laws would be unchanged, as it is required to do by law. The practice is designed to give lawmakers a neutral starting point to work from when crafting legislation.

As a result, the budget office projections omitted war costs and some of Bush's top legislative priorities.

The budget office said assuming U.S. troop strength in Iraq and Afghanistan stays steady through next year and then declines gradually, those wars would add $590 billion to the decade's deficits.

Bush's proposal to prevent his tax cuts from expiring — and easing the impact of the alternative minimum tax on middle-income Americans, a move both parties favor — could add red ink exceeding $2.3 trillion, the budget office said.

The budget office did not say how much Bush's plans to revamp Social Security would cost, but it has been estimated at $1 trillion to $2 trillion.

On the other hand, the budget office assumed most domestic programs would grow at the same rate as inflation. Keeping such spending at about the same level as this year for the entire decade — which Bush may come close to proposing — could reduce deficits by $1.3 trillion over the period, the budget office said.

Republicans used the deficit figures to argue that budget savings must be found this year, including from popular benefit programs.

"If we do nothing, our kids and grandkids will be overwhelmed by the costs of our inaction," said Senate Budget Committee Chairman Judd Gregg, R-N.H.

Democrats blamed Bush and the GOP for the daunting piles of red ink.

"Republicans control the House, the Senate and the White House, but they can't control the budget and they can't escape responsibility for its dismal condition," said Rep. John Spratt of South Carolina, top Democrat on the House Budget Committee.

The administration officials provided little new detail about their war package.

They said of the $80 billion, about $75 billion would be for the Defense Department, with most of it for the Army. They said such spending would include personnel costs, the start of an effort to add at least 17 combat brigades to the Army and replacing worn out equipment.

The rest of the money would largely be for aid the State Department would give to U.S. allies and for other expenses. Included would be money to help new Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, to build an embassy in Baghdad and to aid victims of fighting in Sudan's Darfur province.

They did not state whether the request would include aid for Indian Ocean countries staggered by the tsunami. But one said the United States was spending $5 million daily there, and the administration would seek a "significant request, very generous assistance."

The United States has already committed $350 million to tsunami recovery efforts.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,145335,00.html
 
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Bush's New Agenda Could Cost Trillions
Friday, November 05, 2004

WASHINGTON — With federal deficits already running amok, it is unclear how President Bush (search) will pay for his second-term agenda, a potentially multitrillion-dollar smorgasbord that includes overhauling Social Security and revamping the tax system.

Bush laid out lofty goals Thursday at his first news conference since his Election Day triumph. He said he wanted to buttress Social Security (search), simplify the tax system, strengthen the economy, fight terrorism, bolster education, and battle AIDS (search) and poverty abroad.

"I earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and now I intend to spend it," the president said.

But all the political capital in the world won't pay for his pricey priorities. And unlike four years ago, when his first term began amid projections for $5.6 trillion in federal surpluses over the next decade, the budget's future looks bleak.

Thanks to recession and the burden of higher spending and tax cuts that Bush won, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office now sees $2.3 trillion in accumulated deficits over the next 10 years. That excludes the costs of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, easing the alternative minimum tax's growing burden on middle-class families, and the long-term crunch retiring baby boomers will place on federal support programs like Medicare.


That leaves deficit hawks wondering how Bush would pay for his second-term wish list, finance the wars and meet his goal of halving federal shortfalls by 2009.

"I don't think you can do all of that and still cut the deficit in half in five years," said Robert Bixby, executive director of the bipartisan Concord Coalition, which favors deficit reduction.

Bush could decide to simply borrow the needed money, which would drive deficits higher, "and the real economic consequences of such a binge would come after he leaves office," Bixby said.

For his second term, Bush envisions reshaping Social Security so workers can use some taxes they pay to support the system to create personal savings accounts. He has not advanced details or cost estimates, but some analysts have estimated the 10-year price tag at between $1 trillion and $2 trillion.

Bush wants to make 2001 and 2003 tax cuts permanent — they will otherwise expire by this decade's end — at a roughly $1 trillion price tag. He said Thursday he wants to simplify the tax system at no net cost, but in the past such exercises have often resulted in tax cuts as part of the drive to get lawmakers' votes.

It is hard to estimate the long-term costs of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, but this year's expenses alone may approach $100 billion. Domestic security costs several tens of billions annually, while his initiatives for education and foreign aid are relatively small, just a few billion a year.

White House budget office spokesman Chad Kolton said Thursday that Bush can still halve the deficit by 2009 while addressing his goals.

"These are national priorities that need to be addressed, long-term issues that would be more expensive to wait to deal with than to deal with now," Kolton said.

Democrats dispute that.

"All he talked about today were things that will increase the deficit," said Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-N.D. "He's going to have to at some point confront reality."

With the GOP's electoral successes this week, Bush can count for support on Congress' growing cadre of conservative Republicans — with some caveats.

Rep. Mike Pence, R-Ind., a leader of House conservatives, said a Social Security overhaul and tax simplification are central tenets of the conservative agenda.

But he added, "Restoring luster to our reputation as fiscal conservatives will be a very high priority for the Republican majority," including "moving toward a balanced budget."

To help achieve that, Pence said conservatives want to pare back part of the Medicare prescription drug benefits and avoid expanding the education revisions that Bush and GOP leaders have pushed through Congress.

Financial markets may also play a role in Bush's second term. Despite two consecutive record federal deficits — last year's was $413 billion — the markets have yet to show much concern and interest rates have stayed low.

"Realistically, a lot of these things turn out to be smaller than they sound," said Ethan Harris, an economist at the brokerage firm Lehman Brothers. "Wall Street doesn't get worried until it sees the details and the politics that's there."

But he and other analysts warned that while foreign investors and central banks have helped finance recent U.S. deficits, the risk that they will stop providing cash increases if large amounts of red ink remain consistent.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,137674,00.html
 
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