The AWB and 3rd Party Candidates in Battleground States

J

Jamie Young

New member
Does anyone have any figures on polls taken in any of the Battleground States for the Libertarian and Constitution Partys?

I know for a fact that there were an enormous number of Republican Conservative hunters that were going to pull the Libertarian or Constitution Party levers if Bush signs the AWB. All polls that I've seen only had Nader on them but never anyone else.

I personally would not be surprised if Pennsylvania had a 6-8% Libertarian and a 4% Constitution Party vote in the November election. The AWB issue might put a hole in this balloon.

I expect to see polls rise in Pennsylvania if Bush doesn't chicken out in the debates.
 
He was.

I know several people (myself included) that are holding there vote for Bush or Constitution party. We had Peg Luksik of the Constitution party get 9 or 11% in the 96 election which was a record. I know there are enough P.O. Conservative Democrats and Republicans in the State that it could happen again.

I believe PA has the 2nd largest number of Gun shows in the country and everyone is going to be cheering for Bush if he changes his opinion on the AWB during the debates. I hope they question him on it.
 
In 2000, there were 4,913,119 votes cast for President in PA. The Libertarians scored 11,248 of those (0.22%). The Constitution Party racked up 14,428 votes (roughly 0.23%).

Source: http://www.nationmaster.com/encyclopedia/U.S.-presidential-election,-2000-(detail)

In 1996, there were 4,506,118 votes cast for President in PA. The Libertarians scored 28,000 of those (0.62%) and the Constitution Party scored 19,552 (0.43%)

Source: http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe1996/presge.htm#PA


In short, I think it is really unlikely the Constitution and LP combined will exceed 1.5% of the vote in PA this election.
 
Interesting.

Those numbers are very low due to the fact that most Conservatives voted for Bush out of fear Gore.

These are the results from the Governors race.

1998
Tom Ridge*
58% (1,725,744)
def.
Ivan Itkin
31% (929,198)
Peg Luksik (Constit)
10% (312,230)
Ken Krawchuk (Libert)
1% (33,198)

1994
Tom Ridge
def.
Mark S. Singel
Marguerite "Peg" Luksik (Ind.)
13% (460,269)


In the Governors race the Constitution party Candidate got close to half a million votes in 1994 and over a 1/4 of million in 1998.

I still think 3rd Party candidates could alter the election. Especially when there is less than 1% difference in the polls (between Bush and Kerry).
 
Good question. Only close site that I look at is:
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php
At this site, scroll down past the US Map to "Most Recent State Polls", and click on the state. Note that there are more than one PA listing, depending on the source of the poll. It doesn't break it out by independant party.
I'm not sure that polls tell us anything anyway - too few voters have input to any given poll.
I always vote Libertarian even in Calif State contests. And we have a few in office. But I have to confess that my greatest satisfaction is I can always say "you can't blame me, I voted Libertarian". I wish it were the other way around - ie please blame me, I voted Libertarian". heh heh
Mac
 
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Those numbers are very low due to the fact that most Conservatives voted for Bush out of fear Gore.
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OK, maybe that accounts for 2000; but what about 1996 - and practically every election before that until 1972 for that matter?

In the Governors race the Constitution party Candidate got close to half a million votes in 1994 and over a 1/4 of million in 1998.
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You aren't worried that this also shows a declining trend? In any case, it looks to me like many voters for those parties favor building a local power base to work from before they attempt to expand in the national elections judging from the disparate numbers.

I still think 3rd Party candidates could alter the election.
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No question. Depending on the numbers they can alter it between 0.22% and 10% (based on your Governor's race numbers) in the direction of either GWB or Kerry.
 
OK, maybe that accounts for 2000; but what about 1996 - and practically every election before that until 1972 for that matter?
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When the Republicans put up Liberal Republicans against Liberal Democrats the Conservates will pull a different lever if given the option. I admit that the big reason for Peg Luksiks turn out was the Pro-Life vote, but she was also a much stronger Candidate on gun rights than Tom Ridge.

I think gun rights is a bigger issue in PA and so is this AWB than most people realize.

I'm really glad the AWB issue has come up right before the election and not after.
 
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