Terrorist Using Nuclear Weapons...Poll

Possibility of terrorist using nuclear weapons on USA?

  • Very possible

    Votes: 46 45.5%

  • 50/50 chance

    Votes: 19 18.8%

  • Low chance

    Votes: 33 32.7%

  • Never happen, just science fiction stuff.

    Votes: 3 3.0%
  • Total voters
    101
M

madmag

New member
Possibility of terrorist using small tactical nuclear weapons? The reason I think this is a real possibility is that there are three requirements to use nuclear weapons.

1) You need the knowledge to build a weapon. That knowledge is available to most any that want to read non-restricted engineering books.

2) You need the will to use such a bomb. Terrorist are not like countries. They have no fear will instantly use such a bomb.

3) You need the critical mass material. This is the only hard part. We just hang by a thread that someone does not get enough material together to make a small tactical bomb.

So, I think we already have two out of three requirements for terrorist to use a nuclear weapon on this Country.

I vote very possible.
 
Last edited:
Plutonium compression, no.

Uranium collision "gun" device, quite possible. Most likely in a port, which is WHY the ports need to be secured.

One in NY Harbor could shut down Wall Street, and one at one of the major loading ports on the east or west coast, west coast especially, could seriously disrupt the supply chain. Think of how many things you're using right now that are MADE IN CHINA...
 
Oh, it has a very good chance of happening. The future is a long time. In the next 25 years, though, the main thing is how Iran falls apart. Iran is an economic and political basketcase. They're making moves to conquer the oil-producing states of the Middle East to buy themselves more longevity. That's why they want the bomb.


They won't be successful in building an empire for a variety of reasons, but the critical thing for us is what they do as they collapse. The Soviet Union had amazingly mild death spasms, perhaps because they thought they would get a giant cash infusion from the West (similar to the Marshall Plan). But when Iran crashes, who knows?
 
If we would build enough nuclear plants here that we no longer cared about their oil, (cheap enough power = viable waste catalyzation to fuel oils, even), we'd not need to worry what they do. Just sit back with popcorn.
 
Nuclear fission sounds good to me. Won't solve all of our energy problems, but would go a long way. Plus, it's cool.


But that's not going to stop the terrorists.


Iran is still fighting to stay above water, will get the bomb, won't get Saudi Arabia et al, and will collapse. There are and will remain plenty of hotheads who want to blow up Manhattan. If they can get a bomb from Iran sometime in the next 15 years, well, there's not much that can deter them. We might interdict them, but I don't like the odds.
 
You need a category of Who knows? There are alot of much easier things than small nukes that terrorists could do that would cause big problems for us. I'm certainly not going to mention any.
 
1) You need the knowledge to build a weapon. That knowledge is available to most any that want to read non-restricted engineering books.
Click to expand...
Just because the knowledge is available does not mean any Jihad Joe can actually put it to use. There are relatively very few people on the planet that can understand the engineering behind a nuclear bomb to actually make one work, let alone do so without killing themselves in the process.

Getting the material is hard, actually using it is a lot harder.
 
Getting the material is hard, actually using it is a lot harder.
Click to expand...

I have to disagree. Getting the material is hard. It would scare you on how easy it is to use. I wish it were otherwise.
 
A compression warhead is difficult. A uranium collision device is simply a matter of being able to use shop tools to measurements. The "technology" is 1945...and most of Little Boy's technology wasn't the detonation rail, which is just the two enriched pieces shaped like a cone and cup, but the atmospheric sensing gear meant to trigger detonation at a certain altitude.
 
A uranium collision device is simply a matter of being able to use shop tools to measurements.
Click to expand...

Yes, unfortunately true.

I guess part of understanding the danger is the realization that it is not hard to do when you have the material. It's hard to bring the subject up because you don't want to give anyone ideas, but the truth is the knowledge is so common place that it almost like keeping an internal combustion engine secret. For many years the AEC has tried to track & locate the amount of fissionable material in the world. They have basically lost track of enough material to build several bombs. Many good books on the subject. One new one I intend to read is called the Atomic Bazaar.
 
It really is a matter of time. If you have enough money you can buy the expertise. Hmmmm what is the former Soviet Union paying thier Nuclear Scientists these days?? Oh thats right they aren't.
 
Heck, check Wikipedia and you can get pretty good rough directions for a gun-type uranium weapon. Fortunately, getting enough of the right material is quite difficult and requires a lot more expertise than the weapon itself.

Which is why everybody gets nervous when countries like Iran start building large centrifuge cascades. If the material becomes available, the weapon is surprisingly, and disturbingly, easy. Relatively.
 
Vewey possible. Several years ago the top nuke guy in Pakistan sold millions of dollars worth of know-how and, iirc, materials, to some very bad people. Who knows how many more are out there just like him that we don't even know about.
 
I'm sure someone with the know how will sell something to these people and it may be sooner than we think:mad:
 
4 basic categories of "atomic" weapons

Meaning weapons that use radioactive material.

1) Thermonuclear device -the H-bomb - fusion technology
very unlikely to be developed and used by terrorists, possible use if acquired as an operable (or repairable) unit - "The Sum of All Fears"

2) Nuclear Device - A-bomb - fission technology
unlikely to be developed by terrorists, but likely to be provided to them by "rogue state" regime.

3) Criticality device - mechanically much simpler than a bomb, in fact what can happen if the "bomb" is a dud. Not explosive like a bomb, but generating up to a few thousand degrees of heat for a brief time, and lethal levels of radiation, which can last for some time, depending on a number of physical factors. Very easily constructed with sufficient fissile material.

4) Dirty bomb - conventional explosive technology, using radioactive materials in bomb casing, to be spread by the explosive. Very constructable by terrorists, if they are provided with radioactive material. And not requiring the fissile material. Nuclear "waste" material would serve.

Neither of the last two will have the impact of the first two, as they are not atomic explosions, but a criticality device can kill a number of people, particularly if properly planted, as it could be constructed to emit only radiation, and thus be virtually undetectable without radiation detection instrumentation.

A dirty bomb could contaminate a multi block area, possibly with dangerous levels of hazardous materials, requiring an intensive, and expensive decon effort, but nothing that is technically difficult.

Creating (refining) the material for an atomic bomb is both simple and complex at the same time. Fissile Uranium is a naturally occurring isotope, but it is only about .7% of natural Uranium, and is distributed throughout the non-fissile material. And it is not separable by chemical means. What this means is that not only does one need the appropriate separation technology, but one has to process approximately two tons of pure natural Uranium to obtain enough material for one Hiroshima size bomb. A much larger amount of Uranium ore would be needed, and purification and refinement of the fissile material, is a complex task, beyond the capabilities of a terrorist group, but not beyond the capabilities of a nation state. India, Pakistan, N.Korea have all managed this feat, Israel is reputed to have nuclear capacity, and of course, the current bogeyman is Iran.

Whether or not the terrorists have the will to use the "bomb" if they get their hands on one is, I believe without doubt. Their biggest problem will be deciding amongst themselves which target to hit.

There is one thing that might stay the hand of the terrorists, and it is not the fear of death, or of our eventual response, but that such an act would be an abomination in the eyes of God. However, since we cannot count on them believing that such an act would be an abomination, and in fact they might believe such an act was not only justified, but was demanded by God, we must consider that there could be a nuclear weapon used in the future.
 
There is one thing that might stay the hand of the terrorists, and it is not the fear of death, or of our eventual response, but that such an act would be an abomination in the eyes of God. However, since we cannot count on them believing that such an act would be an abomination, and in fact they might believe such an act was not only justified, but was demanded by God, we must consider that there could be a nuclear weapon used in the future.
Click to expand...

These people have stood next to baby carriages in a civilian cafe and blown themselves up. What do you think?
 
Possibility of terrorist using small tactical nuclear weapons? The reason I think this is a real possibility is that there are three requirements to use nuclear weapons.

1) You need the knowledge to build a weapon. That knowledge is available to most any that want to read non-restricted engineering books.

2) You need the will to use such a bomb. Terrorist are not like countries. They have no fear will instantly use such a bomb.

3) You need the critical mass material. This is the only hard part. We just hang by a thread that someone does not get enough material together to make a small tactical bomb.

So, I think we already have two out of three requirements for terrorist to use a nuclear weapon on this Country.

I vote very possible.
Click to expand...

A terrorist does not need to know how to design and build an atomic bomb, he only needs to acquire one.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top