Supply timeline

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breakingcontact

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This isn't about bans or politics. This is assuming no laws change. Let demand stay up in this scenario.

From what I understand the retailers/wholesalers/manufacturers are wiped out of a lot of popular shooting gear.

How long should it take the supplies to recover? (Lots of variables: foreign/domestic, small/big, companies changing their products out of fear and 100 other factors)

Sitting on the sidelines. Just have to determine when it should all be over and i can get back in.
 
I think they're gonna have higher capabilities than they did in 08. A lot more manufacturers in the mix too.

I'm hoping that the market will rebound sooner this time, at least for the ammo.
 
I don't know but those Ruskies better get back to work and start shipping my cheap 5.45x39 and 7.62x39 fodder ammo
 
FWIW a friends brother with a FFL was told 3 years for an AR. He is a small time guy that works from his home. The only local gunsmith can't even get bolts. Course he can't get anything else either. He thinks Obama will just
issue another edict and ban about everything. So far congress has not called him on any of his illegal acts
 
As one concrete example, Brownells makes their own AR-15 mags (yes, they actually do). They issued a statement saying they sold out 3.5 years' worth of typical sales in 72 hours. :eek:

As they went on to explain, one way or another, the demand spike is going to be relatively temporary. Therefore, they (like just about every other manufacturer currently under long backorders) will NOT be investing to expand capacity to catch up with the backorders.

How long will it take them to catch up? I don't know, and I expect it will vary greatly by manufacturer. But, with them likely to only run current capacity as hard as they can, I think some of the existing backorders could go on for many months before being filled. I had some bullets on backorder for several months in 2008 and this situation is many times worse, I expect.
 
Depending on what Biden includes in his "plan" many of these manufacturers will turn to making other products. We''ll just have to wait and see. I wouldn't be surprised if my Winchester lever guns are classified as "assault weapons". I think it also must be remembered that the biggest customer for most of these companies are Federal and State Government agencies. We have been unable to keep up with the demand for small arms ammunition for U.S. armed forces for a very long time now. The U.S. buys tons of ammo from Israel and South Korea to keep our military going. (what a great idea THAT is)
 
There are no more volume USGI mag manufacturers than in 2008. It took about 18 months to get caught up back then. Same for ammo, though the steel cased ammo is more varied and plentiful than in 2008.

Given this run is more severe than 2008 I would expect we'll have a supply drought for at least 12 months and maybe 24 months. While there is incrementally more capacity we also have a surge in new gun owners in the last four years. Many of them are just getting started assembling a basic battery and supplies.
 
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