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From The American Enterprise Online http://TheAmericanEnterprise.org/hotflash.htm
HOT FLASH
November 14, 2000
Palm Beach Vote Not "IRREGULAR"
Statistically, Gore's complaints don't add up
By Christopher DeMuth
In all of the arguments over the Florida presidential vote, there is one essential linchpin in the Democrats' efforts to have the votes of
Palm Beach County recounted and "adjusted" in some manner. That is the assertion that the county's votes were anomalous or
irregular as compared to other Florida counties, and that Pat Buchanan received an inexplicably high number of votes. The "high"
Buchanan vote--combined with complaints about the "butterfly" design of the Palm Beach ballot and the assertions of some voters
that they mistakenly voted for Buchanan rather than Gore--suggests that the county's voting procedures artificially suppressed the
Vice President's vote.
The "high" Buchanan vote is essential because, without it, all that remains are the arguments over ballot design and the morning-after
complaints of voters selected by the Gore organization. These factors alone cannot be grounds for a ballot hand-count, court
intervention, or any other form of post-election adjustment--unless we are prepared to do the same in hundreds of other counties in
Florida and other states where the vote was close. The butterfly ballot was used in other jurisdictions, and there are both pros and
cons to this (and other) ballot designs. The Bush and Gore organizations could undoubtedly produce an endless stream of voters
who failed for one reason or another to register their "true" choices in the voting booth. If these issues justify post-hoc adjustment,
the election result will be postponed indefinitely and effectively nullified.
But there was not, in fact, anything anomalous or irregular in the Palm Beach County election returns, and nothing in the returns
suggests that Buchanan "took" votes from Gore. The arguments to the contrary consist of two assertions. The first is simply that
Buchanan received more votes (3,412) in Palm Beach County than in any other Florida county. But Palm Beach is one of Florida's
most populous counties, and 16,695 of its residents are registered with the Reform, American Reform, or Independent parties--the
second largest county registration for these parties in all of Florida. Taking account of the county's size and party registration,
Buchanan's Palm Beach County vote was strong but not a statistical "outlier." In several other counties, Buchanan received a higher
percentage of votes cast than his 0.79% in Palm Beach County. And in several others, he garnered more than 20 percent
(3,412/16,695) of the Reform, American Reform, and Independent Party registration.
The second, more sophisticated assertion is that Buchanan's Palm Beach County vote was much higher than would have been
projected by statistical methods. Last week, two economists associated with the Vice President released the results of a regression
study that compared the Buchanan, Gore, and Bush votes in all Florida counties. If Buchanan had received the same votes relative to
Gore and to Bush in Palm Beach as in other Florida counties, his Palm Beach vote would have been only 1,200. This, they said,
"appears to suggest some irregularity" in the Palm Beach County vote.
Their study, however, entirely omits party registration data. Party registration varies considerably from county to county, and it is
obviously a powerful measure of voters' inclinations--unaffected by ballot design and other voting procedures. It makes much more
sense that a candidate's vote would correlate, county by county, with his party's voter registration than with the votes cast for the
other candidates.
Kevin Hassett of the American Enterprise Institute and John Lott of the Yale Law School have analyzed the Florida voting data with
party registration data factored in. Each scholar independently reached the following conclusions:
* First, most though not all of Buchanan's "excess" Palm Beach County votes (compared to his votes in other counties) can be
explained by the high Reform, American Reform, and Independent Party registration in Palm Beach County.
* Second, Gore also received "excess" votes in Palm Beach County. Whether compared to Democratic Party registration or to the
votes received by Bush and Buchanan, Gore did better, not worse, in Palm Beach County than in other Florida counties. Gore's
Palm Beach "excess" was even greater than Buchanan's.
* Third, Bush received fewer votes in Palm Beach County than in other Florida counties. Again, this was so whether Bush's votes
were compared to votes received by the other candidates (the Gore analysts' procedure) or to Republican Party registration (the
procedure used by Hassett and Lott).
Statistical analysis cannot account for all of the variation in voting patterns from jurisdiction to jurisdiction. But it can and does say
that there was nothing "irregular" in the Palm Beach County voting returns, and nothing to suggest that Buchanan's votes somehow
suppressed Gore's. If anyone can complain about losing "mistaken" votes to Buchanan on the butterfly ballot, it is not Gore but
Bush (Buchanan appeared between Gore and Bush on the ballot).
There are many possible explanations for the relative performance of the three candidates that have nothing to do with ballot design.
Buchanan's residence in Palm Beach County may have boosted his votes. Palm Beach County is heavily Democratic, and perhaps
some of the Democratic voters talked their Republican friends into voting for Gore. We cannot say for sure, but we can say that
nothing in the voting returns invites further scrutiny.
Indeed, precisely because Palm Beach County is predominantly Democratic, even "neutral" adjustments, such as hand counts that
add "partially perforated" ballots, will artificially skew the Florida vote in Gore's direction if applied only in that county. So the
interests of fairness as well as finality both argue for taking the Florida recount (now completed with the exception of some overseas
ballots) as final.
Christopher DeMuth is president of the American Enterprise Institute. He was a policy adviser to Governor Bush during the election
campaign.
The American Enterprise Online - www.TheAmericanEnterprise.org
HOT FLASH
November 14, 2000
Palm Beach Vote Not "IRREGULAR"
Statistically, Gore's complaints don't add up
By Christopher DeMuth
In all of the arguments over the Florida presidential vote, there is one essential linchpin in the Democrats' efforts to have the votes of
Palm Beach County recounted and "adjusted" in some manner. That is the assertion that the county's votes were anomalous or
irregular as compared to other Florida counties, and that Pat Buchanan received an inexplicably high number of votes. The "high"
Buchanan vote--combined with complaints about the "butterfly" design of the Palm Beach ballot and the assertions of some voters
that they mistakenly voted for Buchanan rather than Gore--suggests that the county's voting procedures artificially suppressed the
Vice President's vote.
The "high" Buchanan vote is essential because, without it, all that remains are the arguments over ballot design and the morning-after
complaints of voters selected by the Gore organization. These factors alone cannot be grounds for a ballot hand-count, court
intervention, or any other form of post-election adjustment--unless we are prepared to do the same in hundreds of other counties in
Florida and other states where the vote was close. The butterfly ballot was used in other jurisdictions, and there are both pros and
cons to this (and other) ballot designs. The Bush and Gore organizations could undoubtedly produce an endless stream of voters
who failed for one reason or another to register their "true" choices in the voting booth. If these issues justify post-hoc adjustment,
the election result will be postponed indefinitely and effectively nullified.
But there was not, in fact, anything anomalous or irregular in the Palm Beach County election returns, and nothing in the returns
suggests that Buchanan "took" votes from Gore. The arguments to the contrary consist of two assertions. The first is simply that
Buchanan received more votes (3,412) in Palm Beach County than in any other Florida county. But Palm Beach is one of Florida's
most populous counties, and 16,695 of its residents are registered with the Reform, American Reform, or Independent parties--the
second largest county registration for these parties in all of Florida. Taking account of the county's size and party registration,
Buchanan's Palm Beach County vote was strong but not a statistical "outlier." In several other counties, Buchanan received a higher
percentage of votes cast than his 0.79% in Palm Beach County. And in several others, he garnered more than 20 percent
(3,412/16,695) of the Reform, American Reform, and Independent Party registration.
The second, more sophisticated assertion is that Buchanan's Palm Beach County vote was much higher than would have been
projected by statistical methods. Last week, two economists associated with the Vice President released the results of a regression
study that compared the Buchanan, Gore, and Bush votes in all Florida counties. If Buchanan had received the same votes relative to
Gore and to Bush in Palm Beach as in other Florida counties, his Palm Beach vote would have been only 1,200. This, they said,
"appears to suggest some irregularity" in the Palm Beach County vote.
Their study, however, entirely omits party registration data. Party registration varies considerably from county to county, and it is
obviously a powerful measure of voters' inclinations--unaffected by ballot design and other voting procedures. It makes much more
sense that a candidate's vote would correlate, county by county, with his party's voter registration than with the votes cast for the
other candidates.
Kevin Hassett of the American Enterprise Institute and John Lott of the Yale Law School have analyzed the Florida voting data with
party registration data factored in. Each scholar independently reached the following conclusions:
* First, most though not all of Buchanan's "excess" Palm Beach County votes (compared to his votes in other counties) can be
explained by the high Reform, American Reform, and Independent Party registration in Palm Beach County.
* Second, Gore also received "excess" votes in Palm Beach County. Whether compared to Democratic Party registration or to the
votes received by Bush and Buchanan, Gore did better, not worse, in Palm Beach County than in other Florida counties. Gore's
Palm Beach "excess" was even greater than Buchanan's.
* Third, Bush received fewer votes in Palm Beach County than in other Florida counties. Again, this was so whether Bush's votes
were compared to votes received by the other candidates (the Gore analysts' procedure) or to Republican Party registration (the
procedure used by Hassett and Lott).
Statistical analysis cannot account for all of the variation in voting patterns from jurisdiction to jurisdiction. But it can and does say
that there was nothing "irregular" in the Palm Beach County voting returns, and nothing to suggest that Buchanan's votes somehow
suppressed Gore's. If anyone can complain about losing "mistaken" votes to Buchanan on the butterfly ballot, it is not Gore but
Bush (Buchanan appeared between Gore and Bush on the ballot).
There are many possible explanations for the relative performance of the three candidates that have nothing to do with ballot design.
Buchanan's residence in Palm Beach County may have boosted his votes. Palm Beach County is heavily Democratic, and perhaps
some of the Democratic voters talked their Republican friends into voting for Gore. We cannot say for sure, but we can say that
nothing in the voting returns invites further scrutiny.
Indeed, precisely because Palm Beach County is predominantly Democratic, even "neutral" adjustments, such as hand counts that
add "partially perforated" ballots, will artificially skew the Florida vote in Gore's direction if applied only in that county. So the
interests of fairness as well as finality both argue for taking the Florida recount (now completed with the exception of some overseas
ballots) as final.
Christopher DeMuth is president of the American Enterprise Institute. He was a policy adviser to Governor Bush during the election
campaign.
The American Enterprise Online - www.TheAmericanEnterprise.org