Statistical "Proof" of Election Fraud?

Dave R

New member
Read it and weep. Thanks to the Las Vegas Sun. Maybe we should give Jace a "thank you" e-mail for bringing some science to this issue.
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November 10, 2000
Statistics point to more than random error in Florida vote
By Jace Radke
jace@lasvegassun.com
LAS VEGAS SUN

At one in 49 million, the chances of hitting Megabucks on one spin are slim, but not as slim as the odds that Vice President Al Gore would make up as much ground as he has in the Florida recount, according to a UNLV study.

Economics professor Tom Carroll began running statistical equations Thursday on the net gains both Gore, who gained more than 2,200 votes, and Texas Gov. George W. Bush, who added about 700 votes, have made in the recount. He found that the statistical chances for such large and different totals to occur as a result of random glitches was less than infinitesimal.
"The probability of being struck by lightning is about one in a million," Carroll said. "The same person would have to be hit by lightning 30 times to compare with what we've seen in this recount”

Carroll's equations assume that any problems in the original counting of ballots in Florida were caused by computer errors or innocuous human errors, and the chances that errors of this magnitude were the result of computer or human mistakes is extremely thin according to Carroll's calculations.

"A recount is a 50-50 proposition, so statistically speaking, making up something like 1,700 votes is highly unlikely," Carroll said. "For this to have been just random error is statistically unlikely. It wouldn't be unlikely to see some changes in the number of votes during a recount, but the differences should come much closer to canceling each other out."

Carroll, a Democrat, used the computations to illustrate a point in his Thursday night statistics class for students seeking a master's degree in business administration.

"The students were flabbergasted to see what they've been learning applied to a real-life situation," Carroll said. "It really is a small, small number as far as the chances of such a big difference between the changes in the numbers of votes between the candidates. It's something like 179 zeros and then a two and a three."

Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., and former Gov. Bob Miller, honorary chairman of the Gore campaign in Nevada, are among the Democratic officials nationwide questioning the chances of such irregularities showing up in the recount.

"As someone who has experienced two close recounts, I know that they don't usually lead to big changes in the vote totals," Reid said at a Thursday news conference. "This election changes all the rules. In the Florida recount we've seen huge changes in the vote totals, and on top of that, there are serious allegations of voting irregularities and potential fraud. This election needs to be scrutinized closely."
Reid went through a recount of Washoe County when Senator-elect John Ensign attempted to win Reid's seat in 1998. On election night Reid won by 401 votes, and after the recount the final margin was 428. Bush had a 1,784-vote election night lead over Gore. After the recount, the unofficial margin for Bush is 327 votes.
 
Don't forget that we are talking about a guy who can get thousands of dollars in campaign bucks from a group of monks who have taken a vow of poverty.
 
The point of the exercise is to show that the only way for Gore to have realized such a large increase IS through fraud. Either that or there is going to be one GIANT thunderstorm across Broward, Palm Beach and Miami-Dade Counties and everyone will be hit by lightning at the same time.
 
another study

http://www.pushback.com/justice/elections/RobertCook1.html


The following items are summarized from a posting by Robert Cook, a nuclear engineer who has done a statistical analysis of
the 19 thousand double-punched ballots in Florida that seems to indicate intentional fraud.

Dr. Cook's begins his posting with this statement:

Statistical evidence establishes beyond reasonable doubt that 19,120 Presidential race ballots were destroyed by
deliberate double-punching ballots in Palm Beach County FL with a "second punch" for Al Gore or Pat Buchanan. (In
1996, an additional 15,000 Dole and Perot ballots were destroyed by double-punching presidential ballots in Palm
Beach County, FL.)

His claims include the following:

The national error rate of double-punching ballots is less than 1/2 of one percent (0.5%), which would have been 1,800
ballots in Palm Beach County--but there were instead over 19,000 double-punched ballots (many of them had both
Democrat candidate Al Gore and Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan punched) This is ten times greater than any
other reported double-punching error rate in any county in the US using paper punch ballots.
Many Democrats have been insisting that these votes must clearly have been intended for Gore, since Buchanan didn't
get that many votes anywhere else in nearby Florida counties, and blame the staggered "butterfly" ballot used in this
county, but this ignores the fact that 15,000 double-punched ballots were invalidated in Palm Beach County during the
1996 presidential election, and also ignores the fact that large numbers of double-punched ballots were invalidated
elsewhere (in Chicago, IL and Duval County in Florida, and none of these areas used the "butterfly" ballot.
"ONLY in Palm Beach did this "double punch" error happen ONLY in the Gore-Bush-Buchanan selections for
President. (In a truly random "error," the mistakes happen in every race, all at about the same rate. In Palm
Beach, the massive errors (over 19,000) ONLY happened in the Presidential race.)"
"ONLY in Palm Beach did Gore GAIN 750 votes in a recount. In 50 out of 67 counties in FL, the actual change
in the recount was 5-7 votes, and in 63 out of 67 counties, the total change was less than 30 votes either way.
Further, in 63 out of 67 counties the "changes" were somewhat evenly divided between ALL the candidates, in
rough proportion to the original number of votes. This is the statistically expected result, and represents a true
and legal recount of the ballots without any change in the ballots themselves."
"This means that Palm Beach FL had an error rate in favor of Gore more than 120 TIMES greater than any
other county, (Two other heavily Democratic "inner city" counties (Flagler and Pinellas) had changes greater
than 400 votes. Whether or not fraud existed in those counties is possible, but not analyzed here.) In a
statistically valid recount, half of the errors would favor Bush, and half favor Gore. This extreme change from
the normal in only three counties shows massive "tampering" towards Gore in those three counties between the
original machine count (already tainted by fraud.) and the second machine recount."
"ONLY in Palm Beach County do the smaller (Congressional) races outdraw the Presidential race. Again, the
number of total Republican votes "missing" (not counted in the presidential race) is equal to 15,000 Bush votes
destroyed by double punching in the Presidential race."--"The only way this could occur is if 15,000 registered
Republican voters went to the polls, and "forgot" to cast their votes for president, or were "confused" and voted
twice for President but did NOT replace their ballot at the polling booth; while remembering to correctly and
accurately punch 15,000 votes for the Republican Congressional candidate in their district."
"ONLY in Palm Beach did Buchanan get less than HALF the of votes he received before in 1996. Buchanan's
"lost" votes in that county in 2000 were much greater than in any other district in Florida. (Buchanan received
over 8,000 votes in 1996 Republican PRIMARY (where only registered Republicans can vote; but he received only
3,407 under the Reform Party from ALL voters in the 2000 Presidential election. (Pat Buchanan has relatives
who lives in Palm Beach County, and this local support greatly increase the number of local voters who choose
Buchanan, compared to every other region of the country. There are over 14,551 members of the Reform party
in Palm Beach County - which indicates that less than 1/5 of the Reform voters voted for their own candidate.
The Fraud is NOT whether Gore voters were "confused" and voted for Gore, but rather WHY Reform Party and
Libertarian voters were prevented from registering THEIR vote!)"

Please read the rest of Robert Cook's analysis for the rest of the story.


Thanks to TFL member "Nevada"
 
Unfortunatly the majority of u.s. residents are not sophisticated/ educated properly to asess this information and it will be lost on most of them.
 
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