So much for the naysayers

O

Onward Allusion

New member
Headline from NPR - - -

FBI: Murders Up Nearly 11 Percent In 2015; Violent Crime Rose Slightly

"Newly released FBI data show the number of murders in the U.S. rose nearly 11 percent last year and violent crime increased by nearly 4 percent, but crime researchers said homicides and other violence still remain at low rates compared with a crime wave from 20 years ago."

I suspect the numbers are understated like most stats of this nature. I mean, Chicago is included in the numbers and it's documented that they fudge the numbers. More reason to carry and possibly with more ammo . . .
 
At first blush I'm going to say both sides will try to use these numbers. Pro-gun will say all the more reason to buy a gun and carry. Anti-gun will say we need more gun control.

Having written the above I admit it's not like I'm going out on a limb here.
 
The other part to it is that the numbers are driven by several cities. DC, Bloodymore, Milwaukee, KC Chiraq and Houston if I remember correctly. The numbers are back down this year.

They also mentioned that the crime is a very local thing, certain neighborhoods are where most is centralized. They of course didn't break down what the demographic was but I suspect the Amish are behind the numbers :D
 
Last edited:
Chicago numbers are crazy high and climbing.

A lot of this is blamed on the Ferguson effect. From my perspective this is not true in my area. We are not doing much anything different. I am seeing a more violent breed of criminal than in recent memory. Most criminals get along with the police understanding that we are separate sides and just doing a job. A younger element is very violent and seems to want to fight a lot more than unusual.

New and much more potent drugs are hitting the streets. Drugs that have a historical association with high crime are re-surging in popularity.
 
Drugs that have a historical association with high crime are re-surging in popularity
Click to expand...

I think this is a small part of it along with natural minor fluctuations. Heroin use is at an all time high with Meth use still rampant. Add into that the high cost to support those habits and the profit to be made from them and you are just asking for violent crime.
 
Besides all the other factors commonly mentions, consider for a moment, just how long is a "generation"???


Every 15-20 years we have a new batch of criminals, AND we have a new batch of police. Of course, there is a lot of overlap, but that is generally what happens.

Again, generally, people don't wait until they are in their 40, & 50s (or up) to become career criminals, and those who are, almost always get there by being criminals at younger ages, who simply got older, and didn't change their criminal ways.

It is the younger generations that commit most violent crime. Passions (all kinds) are stronger, and they are in better physical condition.

SO, a blip, even a large one, in the crime statistics MAY only be just that, a blip, a spike, and does NOT indicate a real trend until SEVERAL years worth of data show the same thing.

I think it is kind of ...inaccurate.. to compare crime stats, from now, with 20 years ago, WITHOUT recognizing that the majority of the people NOW committing (street) crimes are not the same people they were 20 years ago.

Also, over the years, I have reached the point where I no longer take the FBI's word at full face value, on anything. Tis sad, but their performance in recent decades has fallen short of their once sterling reputation, in some cases VERY short. They may be the "premier" law enforcement group in the nation, but they have repeatedly shown themselves to be human, neither infallible, nor omnipotent. Drastically so, during the Clinton administration....I would expect a similar situation under another, similar administration.
 
They may be the "premier" law enforcement group in the nation, but they have repeatedly shown themselves to be human, neither infallible, nor omnipotent.
Click to expand...

The word human pretty much assures us that those other two words, infallible and omnipotent are going to be true regardless of what one is talking about. I think the FBI is no exception and is also susceptible to the generational thing. Much of the mindset of the FBI is not made or drastically changed in a year or 8. Policies and theories on crime and criminals is embedded much deeper than that. Folks in control have been there most of their life. A change in Presidents is not going to change their mind, nor many of their policies. While the setting of a term limit of ten years for the director, may help, the new director will definitely follow many of his mentor's ideals until he/she can establish their own competency. Add to the fact that anytime they fail, they are under the heavy scrutiny of today's media, while much of their success in the overall scheme of things is disregarded.
 
44AMP noted:
They may be the "premier" law enforcement group in the nation, but they have repeatedly shown themselves to be human, political, neither infallible, nor omnipotent.
Click to expand...
There, fixed it for ya'.

I spend decades being a federal contractor to FBI, DoJ and other 3 letter agencies, often being at private meetings with these and other guys. Without a doubt, politics ALWAYS played a big part with the FBI course of action, and truth has consistently been a casualty with them from my perspective. To take this report or any other publication from their press at face value is folly.

Their public persona is clearly at odds to reality.
 
Without a doubt, politics ALWAYS played a big part with the FBI course of action
Click to expand...

You mean like how white nationalists are still the greatest terror threat to the United States, according to their indoctrina... I mean training? I literally had an agent tell me that not very long ago

We now have 3 RADICAL ISLAMIC terror incidents where the FBI investigated a person, ruled it unfounded, and that person later went on to commit an act of terror. We now have 54 innocent people killed after someone was already investigated by the FBI, one person had numerous separate tips reported on them. I understand that we can't imprison someone on the suspicion of being a terrorist, but golly gee they're not exactly batting a 1.000 right now.



In other news... virtually no one here has much to fear from the increase in violent crime. While truly innocent victims exist, most shootings are over gang turf/respect and most armed home invasions (not breaking/enterings) are at drug houses. I'm not sure the violent crime increase is a reflection of an increase in "truly innocent" victims. I suspect it does not, and hence there is no need for us to increase firepower.
 
Probably just my paranoia, but it seems to me that Rohm Emmanuel has done very little or nothing to try and solve the murder rate in Chicago. I believe he has an agenda including Obama to use the Chicago murder rate and PD corruption to have an excuse for federal intervention in what should be local or state business only. If they do it there and are successful, than will the feds be coming to a city near you? It's for our own good , after all, because we obviously can't solve our own problems. They want the Feds to take over every aspect of life in America.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/
 
Tough to call a one-year change a trend. There is a lot of noise to sift through to find the signal, especially when the longer-term trends look like this:


Homicides-1900-2010-2.jpg


I mean, maybe we are in the trough, but you can only tell that retrospectively.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top