Report on Concealed Carry Permits

B

BarryLee

New member
John Lott’s Crime Prevention Research Center has released a report related to concealed carry permit holders. I haven’t read the entire report yet, but a few highlights. Currently 11 million individuals hold permits. However, the number is actually higher since some states do not require permits to carry or report the numbers. Secondly in the time frame 2007 - 2013 the violent crime rate dropped by 22 percent while the number of permits increased by 130 percent. Obviously there are other factors that may have played into the drop in crime, but more guns did not result in “blood in the streets” as some have predicted.

http://crimepreventionresearchcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Concealed-Carry-Permit-Holders-Across-the-United-States.pdf
 
it's the only info we have, but on the flip side, some people have permits in more than one state, so they are being double counted.

nonetheless, more is better. now, if everyone who had a concealed carry permit was also an NRA member, and vice versa, that would be awesome.
 
The study showed lots of interesting facts. Let me start with how incredibly law-abiding we (CC license holders) are:
The numbers are similarly low in Texas. In 2012, the latest year that crime data are available, there were 584,850 active license holders. Out of these, 120 were convicted of either a misdemeanor or a felony, a rate of 0.021 percent, with only a few of these crimes involving a gun.
Click to expand...

We are more law-abiding than the police are:
The Florida numbers can easily be compared to data on firearms violations by police officers during the three years from January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2007. 6 During that time period, the annual rate of such violations by police was at least 0.007 percent. That is higher than the rate for permit holders in Florida.
Click to expand...
 
There are some good statistics in that report that help illustrate our arguments against gun control.

Thank you for sharing.
 
Secondly in the time frame 2007 - 2013 the violent crime rate dropped by 22 percent while the number of permits increased by 130 percent. Obviously there are other factors that may have played into the drop in crime, but more guns did not result in “blood in the streets” as some have predicted.
Click to expand...

No, there was no blood in the streets. However, there was no drop in crime rates because of CCW either. The crime rate in England has been falling since 1996 as well. That is NOT the product of CCW.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/apr/24/crime-rate-england-wales-falls-lowest-level-33-years

The same goes for Canada. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/what-s-behind-canada-s-improving-crime-stats-1.1315377

Fatal car crashes have also been in decline during this period? Because of more guns? http://www.statisticbrain.com/car-crash-fatality-statistics-2/

It is absurd to continue to throw out a correlation in association with a positive outcome (more guns equals less crime) without any sort of known causation. The is especially true given that most people with concealed carry permits are not carrying.
 
but more guns did not result in “blood in the streets” as some have predicted.
Click to expand...

Of course it hasn't! Guns don't turn people into murdering psychopaths. Other than psychopaths, people have a hard-wired empathy aversion toward killing or harming other people. A few chunks of metal screwed together isn't going to change that. Guns aren't Red Kryptonite like the Antis want everyone to believe.
 
Fair enough. There are NO KNOWN DATA to substantiate that CCW has reduced crime or crime rates, regardless of how many times people want to claim that crime rates are down because of CCW or try to associate reduced crime with CCW.

You are right. That sounds much better and is more accurate. Thank you.
 
It is absurd to continue to throw out a correlation in association with a positive outcome (more guns equals less crime) without any sort of known causation.
Click to expand...

I agree, but don’t you feel that the study shows more CCW has not increased crime? To me that seems like the big takeaway here.
 
All this is handled by complex multiple regressions and comparisons between equivalent areas with and without changes in gun laws.

Causality is so suspect in the econometric analyses. There hasn't been a modern study on criminals to discern their views of CCW and crime. If there has been, I missed it.
 
Why would CCW increase crime? Permits aren't handed out to felons?
Click to expand...

Well, I agree, but many anti-gun folks have been stating that it would. In Georgia we’ve had a long debate over the last couple of years as the legislature worked to pass expanded rights for license holders. The local media has run a number of stories suggesting that the new law will increase crime. It seems like this study refutes those insinuations.
 
Okay, so 18 pages and the best thing that can be said is that CCWs didn't increase the crime rates...not that we haven't known this for at least the last 20 years, but that really isn't the focus of the report. The report makes it sound like CCW is driving down crime (Deterrence) and nothing in the report actually substantiates this.

Or maybe CCW has been so strong in the US, it has driven down crime in Canada and England as well?
 
Another problem with this 'study' is that the author and the Crime Prevention Research Center is not exactly impartial.

It's on par with Bloomberg citing a study by MAIG.
 
However, the number is actually higher since some states do not require permits to carry or report the numbers
Click to expand...

That's not a highlight. That's a "I skewed the numbers one way for one set of circumstances and didn't fairly skew them back for another equally likely scenario" way to get your argument tripped up. How many people do you know who have multiple permits? For example, how many Washingtonians may have a Utah and/or Oregon permit? (WA+ Utah covers a lot of states for WA residents, and Utah training in local shops touts it's also good for Oregon who recognizes nobody else, and only sort of issues to Washingtonians (at least until Peruta percolates) - I'm sure there's a number of others like this. I think the other big state to get a non-resident from is Florida.
 
Just about everyone I know has two or three licenses/permits. I have four, and I'm contemplating applying for maybe two more. But I live in a state with limited reciprocity, so I need non-resident permits from other jurisdictions to fill in the gaps. And as more states are restricting reciprocity to residents of the issuing state only, getting permits for states I may be visiting is becoming more necessary.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top