Rant on "The Vulnerability of Scale"

[MeekAndMild]

This is a spinoff thread from the Walmart complaint thread. Consider the vulnerability of scale and its risk to the US economy, not the least part of which is the firearms trade. 'Vulnerability of Scale' is the fact that the larger systems become the easier it is for problems to occur which destroy them. This happens because the larger the system the easier it is to turn a smooth operation into a chaotic one. Think 'butterfly effect'. Familiar examples include traffic flow down I-10 through Houston, the 1970's electrical blackouts and power grid collapse, the fall of the Texas A&M bonfire and the collapse of the Tulipmania scheme in Holland.

Here is the problem I have with WalMart and vulnerability of scale: What is the point of buying cheap if what you need isn't available and all other alternative sources have been eliminated? Suppose it isn't available because all the manufacturing resources have been exported to China because Wal Mart or other conglomerate has been undercutting US industry for years on end... then one day the Chinese decide they need the product more than the US?

Suppose for the sake of argument you don't need a gallon of pickles or 10 rolls of toilet paper for the price of 6. For the sake of argument suppose it is something which seems to be in very short supply all of a sudden, and disappears from Wal Mart, and all the other stores in town because there are only a couple of wholesalers and they all buy from the same Chinese importer.

Suppose this is something you never think of, like lye for soapmaking? This happened to Mrs Meek recently. She uses about a half pound of lye every few years when she decides to make her secret buttermilk soap recipe. So what happened? None in the entire town!

Well at a couple of stores, even the county farmers co-op they told her their wholesaler couldn't get it because of meth labs buying it. Not true, else why does the co-op still sell other chemicals which can be diverted to make meth?

So I tracked it down and it turns out that world lye resources have been bought up by China and other countries for aluminum making. Aluminum, who would have thought of it? Look down to the bottom of the article for the one line explanation. http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/03/16/business/shortage.php

So what happens when the Chinese decide they need the components of smokeless powder or the springs to make rifles more than we do? Good old WalMart has been there driving down prices and driving manufacturing overseas.

 

[Scott Conklin]

Well, you can take this well beyond Wal mart and China, though. The hurricanes and $3 a gallon gas completely altered the grocery shelves in some ways last year. Certain foods simply cost too much to transport, and some were not available. If gas goes to $3 again you can rest assured certain regions of the US will lose certain product availability.

Now, add in a crisis of some form. Pick whatever floats your boat. Panic buying can empty a huge store in hours...and fuel costs can keep it empty. That's in relatively rural areas. For urban areas that vulnerability of scale, the tranportation of goods long distance from specific suppliers and/or producers, coupled with a 'crisis'(media) induced panic could easily create chaos.

That's why I keep saying our current model can not survive. What we call the modern world IS a modern invention. It's been around just over 100 years. Easy energy transmittal and easy mobility and easy food variety and easy convenience are not the norm and they can't exist indefinitely. We don't have the energy and resources to keep it working for everyone all the time now on a global scale. Add more billions of people and decreasing easy energy and it becomes problematic, at best, very quickly.

Whether it is foreign states controlling markets, actual shortages, weather, war, terrorism or whatever combination, our infrastructure stretches too thin and eventually it will fall apart. That's guaranteed(whether you believe it or not). What will be interesting is seeing what we come up with afterwards, and whether it is better or worse... What would be smart would be to create the alternative now. But I believe that would require going back to self-sufficiency in too many things(like energy and food) for most people to do it willingly. Of course, we couldn't do it with the current population issues anyway...but that problem will cure itself.