Random telephone polling is the most precise, scientific, and incorrect way to gauge the progress of a primary election cycle. It's based on a false premise; the pollsters actually know who's going to vote.
The random polling has a stunningly dismal track record for predicting a nominee, and little wonder. Consider the following:
-A week before the 1988 Iowa caucuses, Bob Dole and George H.W. Bush were thought to be, in the words of a Chicago Tribune story, "far in front of their four competitors." When the caucusing was over, Bush found himself not in first or second place but in third, well behind televangelist Pat Robertson.
-Four years later, Bush got another surprise when Pat Buchanan beat him in New Hampshire.
-In 2004, Howard Dean was expected to cruise to victory in Iowa, while John Kerry was running a poor third (3%) in the polls. Come caucus night, it was the other way around.
-In November 1991, notes the AEI Political Report, a survey of Democrats put Bill Clinton sixth in a field of six (at a measly 4%), chasing Mario Cuomo, Jerry Brown, Doug Wilder, Bob Kerrey and Tom Harkin. Guess who won?
-In November 1975, Jimmy Carter had a microscopic three percent of the Democratic vote.
In fact, there were only two times in the entire history of random polling where it successfully predicted the outcome of a Democratic primary, and only 3 times for a Republican primary...even as far into the process as the Iowa Caucus.
So let's dispense with the Rudy vs. Hillary nonsense. Nobody knows who's going to win this thing. Support who you like and quit telling me who "can't" win. If you want to predict a likely outcome, look at fundraising, grassroots support, and straw polls.
The random polling has a stunningly dismal track record for predicting a nominee, and little wonder. Consider the following:
-A week before the 1988 Iowa caucuses, Bob Dole and George H.W. Bush were thought to be, in the words of a Chicago Tribune story, "far in front of their four competitors." When the caucusing was over, Bush found himself not in first or second place but in third, well behind televangelist Pat Robertson.
-Four years later, Bush got another surprise when Pat Buchanan beat him in New Hampshire.
-In 2004, Howard Dean was expected to cruise to victory in Iowa, while John Kerry was running a poor third (3%) in the polls. Come caucus night, it was the other way around.
-In November 1991, notes the AEI Political Report, a survey of Democrats put Bill Clinton sixth in a field of six (at a measly 4%), chasing Mario Cuomo, Jerry Brown, Doug Wilder, Bob Kerrey and Tom Harkin. Guess who won?
-In November 1975, Jimmy Carter had a microscopic three percent of the Democratic vote.
In fact, there were only two times in the entire history of random polling where it successfully predicted the outcome of a Democratic primary, and only 3 times for a Republican primary...even as far into the process as the Iowa Caucus.
So let's dispense with the Rudy vs. Hillary nonsense. Nobody knows who's going to win this thing. Support who you like and quit telling me who "can't" win. If you want to predict a likely outcome, look at fundraising, grassroots support, and straw polls.