Polls, Turnout, and Congess

L

LightningJoe

New member
I think the smarter Democrats have been aware since July that the presidency was lost. Since then, I suspect they've had other priorities.


They've got very slim majorities in the House and Senate. Back in the Spring (eons ago politically), the assumption was that they would greatly increase their majorities in 2008. But that would require good turnout.


A lot of people go to the polls for the opportunity to vote for the President. If the Democrats got the impression it was over at the top of the ticket, their turnout would probably be reduced, endangering expectations of increased Congressional majorities, maybe even giving up a chamber to the Republicans.


I think the Democrats are trying to keep up enthusiasm for their badly dysfunctional candidate mainly to protect their Congressional majorities. They want the disappointment to occur circa 10:00 pm 11/4. If it sinks in around the middle of October, Nancy Pelosi or Harry Reid (or both) might be handing over the gavel.
 
I think you give the followers of the messiah (that's decidedly with a small "m") too much credit. As mentioned in another thread by Saab1911, they know nothing that doesn't come in 30 second sound bites during their favorite TV show, and Obama makes some good sound bites.
The dems fully expect their man to win but I do agree that they're in for a loss. I think it will come down to that moment in the booth when your brain asks your hand if your really sure the man on the handle your reaching for can be President. I think Obama will lose a large number of votes at that very last second.
 
living in your own world there LJ

becasue you seem to be the only one making the claim over the dems being sure they had lost the election in July. Every indication had McCain behind until he made the Palin announcement.
 
Every indication had McCain behind until he made the Palin announcement.
Click to expand...

Part of the problem is that polls at this point have no meaning 10 minutes after they're asked. I put no stock in the numbers at this point in the game. In fact, I generally dismiss poll numbers until the ones that comes from the ballets. Traditional Red/Blue state figures matched with relatively long term numbers (last couple years) from other indicators in the contested states is much more telling of the final outcome.
35-15 McCain
 
living in your own world there LJ
Click to expand...


Hey, I enjoy my sick dream world.


But if there were any smart Democrats (and there have got to be few, e.g. Bill Clinton), they've got to have been extremely skeptical about Obama's chances since July. But, like Clinton, they may not much care. The Presidency wouldn't do them any good. That office only gets them in trouble. The Congress is where they make their money. And they can carry on like fools and have a wonderful time (like Biden has for 30+ years).


Controlling Congress is what smart Democrats would value. They should stay away from the Presidency (while still trying to seem like they're interested). Occupying the Presidency is just an opportunity for them to screw up and make enemies.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top