Pol/Gov/Oil: oil myths, Middle East, sky is the limit, we are running out, etc.

T

theinvisibleheart

New member
According to US DOE's EIA(Energy Informationa Administration) website listed below,

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/...ons/company_level_imports/current/import.html

top 5 countries are in order of decreasing export to US:

...NATION.............K Barrel(s)/day Dec 2007 stat
1. CANADA............1,780
2. SAUDI ARABIA.....1,675
3. VENEZUELA.........1,246
4. MEXICO..............1,234
5. NIGERIA..............1,210


Couple of interesting point:

1. as you can see, Iraq doesn't even make the top 5 list of oil exporters to US.

2. combined oil import from Canada, Venezuela, Mexico, and Nigeria far outweighs the import qty from Saudi Arabia(the sole Middle Eastern country in the top 5 list)

3. the real effect of Middle Eastern oil is in the price of oil, primarily sweet crude rather than sour crude, in the world market. So even if we imported zero oil from Middle East, if there is political instability in the region, the price of oil (even domestically produced one) will go up. This is because in the case of commodity like oil with standardized exchange and futures market, the value of the asset is not based on what you paid for but what it will sell for.

If I'm a gas station owner and know that the price of oil went up in the futures market, I would need to charge more since in order to replenish the underground gas tank, I would need to pay more. Forward rate is the best economic predictor of future rate.

4. there are number of untapped oil spots in the world. The problem is the cost of extraction and processing makes it economically unviable unless the price of oil in the world market goes up.

If the price of oil(sweet) in the world market goes up, these untapped oil spots will most probably be exploited (unless more cost effective alternative(non-oil) energy resource gets developed first).


As you can, the odds of unlimited price climb in the price of sweet crude oil is unfounded(the supply of sour crude which requires more processing is greater than sweet crude).

We can probably not import any oil directly from Middle East but we can't be isolated from the price effect of sweet crude in the world commodity(oil) market due to turmoil in the Middle East.

In the long run, long before any resources become exhausted, cheaper, more efficient alternative gets developed (e.g. whale oil/oil lamp being replaced by electric bulb, horse buggy being replaced by gas driven automobile, etc.).

The very process of sweet crude being priced higher in the world market makes it more economically attractive to develop more untapped oil spots and also develop alternative source of energy.
 
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there are number of untapped oil spots in the world. The problem is the cost of extraction and processing makes it economically unviable unless the price of oil in the world market goes up.
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Alaska. There is so much oil up here its pathetic, and the Bunny hugging Democrats wont let us get it.

Thats one of my big bitches about Mccain btw. He isnt a drilling in Alaska guy.

Drill, drill, drill I say

WildoiloiloilAlaska ™
 
Whatever happened to the Alaska Independence Movement?

I would have thought that the denial of drilling in ANWAR would have been a real boost to arguments for Alaskan independence.

Aren't the folks up there tired yet of nutjob Greens denying them the use of Alaska's resources?
 
this from 5-year old data:

http://www.doi.gov/news/040122cfact.htm


How much oil is there?
The US Geological Survey issued a new report in 2002 that significantly revised hydrocarbon estimates upwards. The agency now estimates that the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska has between 5.9 to 13.2 billion barrels of technically-recoverable oil on the federal lands in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska with a mean estimate of 9.3 billion barrels. Assuming price levels of $22 to $30 per barrel, there are an estimated 1.3 to 5.6 billion barrels of economically recoverable oil, an amount equal to what we import from Saudi Arabia in 3 to 6 years.
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http://www.epa.gov/fedrgstr/EPA-IMPACT/2003/February/Day-27/i4818.htm


Oh...and it can be done with VERY little environmental impact.
 
Whatever happened to the Alaska Independence Movement?

I would have thought that the denial of drilling in ANWAR would have been a real boost to arguments for Alaskan independence.

Aren't the folks up there tired yet of nutjob Greens denying them the use of Alaska's resources?
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Alaska Independence, like all the other US independence/succesionist movements in the US, is a joke promulgated by political nutcases or well meaning fools.

We get way too many $$$ from the Feds and without the economic/political ties with the US this place would be completely Third World (as parts still are).

The Green movement, in it's relationship with Alaska is based among other things on paternalism and racism and unfortunately, MCain probably wont have the cojones to point that out. He needs Sarah as his VP :)

Oh...and it can be done with VERY little environmental impact.
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Correct...and the oil estimates are still understated IMHO. With global warming, there will be even more available.

WilddrilldrilldrillAlaska ™
 
We can also tap other sources of energy. The rest of the world is steadily increasing their nuclear power generation while ours is declining because we refuse to build new reactors, but we also can't afford the loss to the grid of shutting down our old reactors. Therefore, we are less pushing less safe reactors way past their original projected service life instead of replacing them with the new classes of super safe technology reactors. We're idiots.
 
Did you know Toshiba offered a FREE state of the art mini reactor, with the personell to run it, to Galena Alaska (where electricity costs are enormous) and the greenies are blocking it......

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galena_Nuclear_Power_Plant

I don't get worked up over much, but rascism frosts my butt and the major Greenie orgs are rascist when it comes to Alaska and the needs of Native Alaskans. Ya got some yuppie POS in Connecticut driving her SUV and living high on the hog on Hubby's brokerage bonus whilst denying the folks in Kaktovik a chance to develop their resources.....

WildscumbagsAlaska ™
 
The agency now estimates that the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska has between 5.9 to 13.2 billion barrels of technically-recoverable oil on the federal lands in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska with a mean estimate of 9.3 billion barrels
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That's slightly over 1 year's worth of US oil consumption. Certainly not insignificant, but it's not exactly a lot either...
 
Yes, that pesky misconstrued commerce clause comes to bite you on the arse when you least expect it.

That's why the early decisions granting power to the federal government that it wasn't granted by the constitution need revisiting.

Those living in Alaska, and they alone, need decide when and where to drill for oil, how it is transported; and whether or not nuke power is desirable.

No one outside of Alaska need be or should be involved.
 
Those living in Alaska, and they alone, need decide when and where to drill for oil, how it is transported; and whether or not nuke power is desirable.

No one outside of Alaska need be or should be involved.
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Since the oil is on Federal land, they have a say. Since the pipeline is on or crosses federal land, they have a say.

And are you contending the Feds have no role in determining when and where nuclear power should be used.?

Are you contending that the Feds have no role in Environmental protection?

That's why the early decisions granting power to the federal government that it wasn't granted by the constitution need revisiting.
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Tell us which ones, and why. Please reference the actual decisions themselves without recourse to someone explaining it for you. You can think for yourself, yes?

WilditsnotaquestionofwhetherbutofhowmuchAlaska ™
 
That's slightly over 1 year's worth of US oil consumption. Certainly not insignificant, but it's not exactly a lot either...
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Thats NPR...not ANWR....plus there is more..

WildneedsomeonetodigupthestatsAlaska ™
 
I am a SUPER PRICK when it comes to oil... I am 39 and remember reading National Geographic as young as 6 years old and one thing I remember is seeing elk scraping off the velvet from their antlers on the newly finished pipeline. The areas of Alaska to be drilled first are from what I seen are desolate lands void of much wildlife.
As for the WAR FOR OIL I wanna see this! iraqi oil exported to america to repay us for "SAVING" them from tyranny is the least we can do!
IMHO .33 cent a gallon oil is one bomb (undropped) away! I am also a constituent of florida politicians blocking the drilling of many wells near-a-bout to here!
Brent
 
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