New Customers in the "Sport" of Shooting

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bmtpbm

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I've heard talk of the handgun/ammo bubble; with enthusiasts just waiting for the demand to come down. I wonder if under the bubble there is an actual step up in demand that will last, that is if they don't become frustrated now.

I myself started to shoot more a year before the shortage really hit. I know two people that got swept up in the handgun run, but they really want to practice, get better, and have fun (all while training in something they may practically need sometime).

Does anyone else know people that just got into shooting now? Should manufactures take the chance and invested in equipment to increase supply? After the bubble, will all those guns just sit in the closet with no one practicing?
 
I think alot that has been bought up lately will end up in closets. But we have gained some brothers in arms because of this situation. Ammo might be high and the wait at our local fun shop may be longer...but I think it will pay off. My glass is half full today:rolleyes:

Beentown
 
bmtpbm:

Does anyone else know people that just got into shooting now? Should manufactures take the chance and invested in equipment to increase supply? After the bubble, will all those guns just sit in the closet with no one practicing?
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No
No
Maybe

This reminds me of the cigar boom (mid 90s), but cigar's are perishable.

Also, GM* is a good example of tooling "WAY" up, back in the early 90s. Well, you be the judge (Hello? Bail out!).

You all just have about the worst timing ever! Sorry!:p
 
Bad analogies

I bring this up because I feel everyone is making analogies that aren't really the same situation as the bullet manufacturing. For example is GM tooling up the same as bullet manufacturing? A better comparison might be that car sales are going way up, should a petroleum manufacture invest in more "tooling". I doubt if the answer is no, because everyone will leave their cars in the driveway after the car buying bubble.
I would not recommend that S&W invest in more assets to make more guns. Perhaps people want glocks, etc. I think gun sales will decrease. That would be more like the GM analogy.
It seems to be a self defeatist attitude. Just wait out the bubble, then we can produce ammo at "normal" levels. And all the guns will be used to as door stops.
I welcome the gain and the bubble. I see more and more responsible people purchasing guns. Perhaps even Wisconsin's laws on concealed carry may change . . . O.K. I'm dreaming now.
 
I guess I'm a pessimistic, 'glass half empty' guy: maybe because at over seven decades of life I've seen too many bubbles bloom and burst. The recent huge run on arms and ammo is just such a one. It's driven by fear and 'me-too-ism', and the vast majority of new firearms owners haven't a clue about the essentials of shooting. They'll go to ranges, play bangity-bang with their new toy for a while. But the luster will fade, and the new plaything will end up in a closet, a drawer, or sold off in the hope of recouping some of the money they overpaid during the temporary boom. Smart manufacturers will invest their windfall profits in better, not more. They should know the boom won't last. In the end, a small increase in committed new shooters will add to the ranks of those who have been here all along. Perhaps a few will even get involved in RKBA, or join the NRA or GOA. But most won't. A huge pool of 'phantom firearms' will then exist, to be an object of alarm to anti's. A few of these will be used in crimes, and the witch hunt will be on.
 
I guess I'm a pessimistic, 'glass half empty' guy
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I second the motion that you are! ;) :D

You know what I think, and what I tell folks who are new to handguns?
Get your handgun, and then, somehow, find the change in couch cusions or in old pockets to buy yourself a decent rimfire semi-auto. It doesn't have to be state of the art or even new. A used Ruger, S&W, Colt still makes one, I think. A Buckmark. One of those Walther P22's if you like.

You want to be a better shot with your new .40 cal? Spend a couple three hundred on a rimfire. And after the obligatory 50-rd box of .40 S&W that cost you $22, now you can put FIVE boxes of .22 on target at two bucks a box.

You'll be a better shooter, you'll have a helluva lot of fun.
 
When I start thinking pessimistically, I "sell it" by calling myself a realist.

I'm either an optimist or a realist. I don't call myself a pessimist... 'cause, I guess, it's too pessimistic! :D
 
one thing about this boom that worries me is all the people that "kind of wanted a gun" and thought they might lose there chance so they ran out bought their new firearm and didn't take the time to get educated. Most of us know some one that fits that bill and I hope we all take the time to teach them a thing or two while we welcome them to our world.
 
I personally have 50-100 rounds for each of my handguns, rifles and shotguns and consider that to be enough. The only thing that has affected me is the shortage has left me unable to practice and keep sharp. I have been seeing more and more .40 and .45 ammo at WalMart, but 9MM seems to be the hardest to get. These "hoarders" need to calm down...period. Once the frenzy is over these idiots are going to be holding onto thousands of rounds which they bought at over blown and premium prices and realize how foolish they really were.
 
one thing about this boom that worries me is all the people that "kind of wanted a gun" and thought they might lose there chance so they ran out bought their new firearm and didn't take the time to get educated. Most of us know some one that fits that bill and I hope we all take the time to teach them a thing or two while we welcome them to our world.
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I agree that this is a valid concern... but when you consider that many, or at least some (by anyone's account!) are going to get hooked on shooting who otherwise might not, that's a nice group of folks added (however many we have added!) that think and VOTE like we do. People that might not have had an opinion one way or the other might now become outspoken pro-gun folks.

That's good good good!
 
Be patient, everything runs in cycles. At my club, we saw a huge amount of new members after 9/11. They all ran out and bought guns and joined up to learn to shoot . That lasted all of 6 months, now you never see them at all.
This gun/ammo buying will taper off, and soon we will be back to normal, until the next new fad comes along.
 
I think demand will continue to be pretty high for quite a few years - from new and experienced shooters.

In many categories of guns there is a short supply - but I doubt mfg's are really increasing production very much - or tooling up for it, even if they could read the tea leaves and guarantee it would pay off. After all, right now they have the benefit of raising prices with high demand. The only reason they will increase production - is if they think they are losing market share to another mfg, that has excess capacity - and right now that doesn't seem to be a big concern. I think all of us will have to be a little more patient with our purchases - wait a little longer for special orders.

There are always a lot of guns that end up in safes and hardly ever get shot ( some of mine go that way too ) / but for some, money gets tight, time gets tight - etc / but a lot of guys come back to the hobby later on in their lives ....so it all evens out.
 
There are always a lot of guns that end up in safes and hardly ever get shot ( some of mine go that way too ) / but for some, money gets tight, time gets tight - etc /
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...which brings up yet another excellent side benefit: originally purchased as new, hardly shot, traded up or traded off or outright sold handguns. Who wins? We do, when the hit the market and the gun shows.

Just like every guy who always saw himself ripping down the road on a motorcycle with the wind in his hair who buys a bike, then never rides, until it finds it's way in to my hands... used, hardly ridden, and at deep discount from it's shocking MSRP. :cool:
 
I think trying to predict anything with this political and economic time is like looking into a crystal ball. We all know he who looks into the crystal ball ends up eating glass!

So, the moral is be patient and relax anf like bad Chinese food this too shall pass.

I wanted to shoot my .40 and .45ACP this weekend, no rounds are available and I don't want to shoot up rounds I can not replace, so we will shoot the shotguns and the .22LR this week end. Even though there is no 45-70 in town, I will let my daughter put some rounds of 45-70 through the BFR. She has never shot it yet. It won't kill my supply if I let her shoot 10 rounds or so, and if it does, I don't really need any for a year or two. The freezer is full already.

I am a bit sad to see the price hikes. It is simple supply and demand. Are the mfgers holding back? Who knows. It wouldn't be the first time a company or group of companies used an increase in demand to get loads of profit. Remember $5.00/gal diesel?

Just a few thoughts.

Mel
 
I believe that it will be some time before ammo supplies and reasonable prices are here again.

There are far too many people out there saying, "I will never let my ammo inventory get this low ever again!" And these are the folks who used to just buy a couple of boxes to sit on a shelf "back in the day". Now those same folks are going to want a little bigger cushion of inventory = more increased demand.

Then there are those of us who previously had a bigger inventory, and have been using it up for a while now, who want to replenish our lowered inventory and perhaps even bump it up a bit = more increased demand.

And we do have a number of new shooters who have also been frustrated at lack of ammo = more increased demand.

So in the short to intermediate run = more increased demand.

Long run, considering some "hoarders"/"entrepreneurs" who have a ton of ammo, some will "get back into the system" and help with demand; but in the near future = more increased demand.

Will the makers tool up? I think that they are going to want to see a long term commitment/history of increased demand before they are going to go out on a limb with any significant additional facilities, personnel, and equipment; not to mention obtaining additional raw components necessary to increase production.

But hey, what do I know; I got some but I didn't get enough before this madness rained down upon us all!
 
I think we'll be in the same spot through the next handful of months simply because it's summer, more people outdoors, so there's more shooting going on. There are many folks who NEVER shoot indoors, so for all the folks who live in a place where it gets to be cold in the winter months, the shooting slows WAY down.

By the time we get to winter, I think a lot of the folks that have been buying every box they can find will either run out of the funds that feed that monster, or they'll feel like they finally have a stash built.

Ammo companies will still be producing to 100% of capacity, so at some point, the shelves will fill up. I don't think we'll see much in price dropping any time soon.
 
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