My prediction...

5whiskey

New member
This is for ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES

Although this is how I believe everything will go down, this is for amusement and not meant to push any buttons.

The federal government will be tied up in fiscal cliff debates for the coming weeks. During this time, the price of EBRs and any other potential ban weapon will fluctuate drastically. One day oly arms plinkers will be going for 1k, the next 1500. The topic of gun control will only be remembered because main stream media won't let it die, constantly bringing it up at least once a week.

The federal government will eventually, of course, kick the can on the fiscal cliff by coming to a 4 or 5 month temporary deal. After all, the reason why we are hearing about the "fiscal cliff" is because of the last temporary deal. After this, some lawmakers will start to discuss gun control in earnest. Joe Biden and Barry O. will call for a bill to be presented (partially because the MSM wouldn't let it die). The president will call for a beer summit with someone. Oly arms plinkers will now be selling for 3k to 4k. All of the gun noobs will be joining TFL and THR so they can ask why their Oly arms plinker, with the bolt bone dry during the first 5 rounds fired, keeps jamming. This is the big secret behind why TFL is moving servers as we speak... in anticipation for all the gun noob questions that are to come.

After much negotiation, the federal government won't even be able to settle on an appropriate magazine capacity. If enough pressure is applied, the house MAY agree to limiting magazines to 10 rounds and allowing for a sin tax on ammo. While there may be a sin tax on ammo, the lawmakers likely want be smart enough to tax individual reloading components. The price of Oly arms plinkers will drop from 4k to 1k overnight on gunbroker. All of the gun noobs now realize that they need to pay the credit card bill, and they're tired of trying to figure out proper maintenance on their Oly arms plinker. Once word that legislation banning ARs will NOT pass, all of them will post their rifles on Armslist and Gunbroker at once. The price will eventually drop to virtually nothing, and all the gun snobs will be tempted to buy an Oly arms plinker just because they are so cheap. After all, why shoot up your nice rifle when you can hack away at the range with a 100 dollar rifle? Pmags, FWIW, are now going for 100 dollars per (easily) until the date that the ban passes. The server traffic on TFL begins to lighten up only until all of the gun noobs try to sale their Oly arms plinkers on here because they can't get enough for it on Gunbroker, as if we who really know better are magically going to pay more than it's worth (for an Oly arms plinker, no less). Server traffic makes the website slow again.

Just before the legislation takes effect, the price of 223 ammo jumps through the roof. People are paying 2 bucks a round for steel cased 223. No one has seen a 30 round magazine sell for less than 200 bucks for a month. The gun noobs are beginning to realize that they were duped, and they are stuck with their Oly arms plinker unless they give it away for 200 bucks. They will likely make more money off of selling the magazine than the rifle. Reloading dies can't be found in 223 or 7.62. Components are backordered for months.

Immediately after the legislation, things start to settle. The guys who panic bought a rifle, but don't need or want it, have now sold it for virtually nothing. 223 will start to be seen again, though slowly and at greater prices than before all of this mess. Service men and women will get in trouble for selling their magazines on the black market. Reloading components will still be scarce, but enough careful scrounging will yield some rewards. People will be swaging 223 projectiles from 22lr casings and wheel weight lead. Powder and primers will go back to pre-Sandy Hook prices eventually, again because congress wasn't smart enough to figure out how to tax reloading components. TFL has since crashed because of the reloading forum, forcing TFL to make a completely separate spin off just for reloaders. Barry O, Joe Biden, and John Boehner have a beer summit to congratulate each other. None of them will ever be re-elected in any political position again. There will still be no form of armed security or pro-ccw laws on the books for schools. 20 little kids, who didn't deserve to die, are still dead. We'll still complain about prices, but hopefully we'll take a minute to remember the victims.

Just my thoughts. Post yours.
 
I predict that the 70% increase in prices will drop back down to 30-35% greater than they were before the panic, and will stay there. Either a very cosmetic and useless legislation will be passed unchallenge afterwards, if anything passes at all.

Everyone will feel better and wonder why the next big mass shooting wasn't stopped in 30+ months.
 
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