More Junk Science

M

Mendocino

New member
My cousin the RKBA physicist sent me this...

Just try and count all the logical fallicies, I dare you...

_________

Subject: Handguns Dramatically Increase Suicide Risk-Study

>
> [Image]
> Handguns Dramatically Increase Suicide Risk-Study
> [Image]5.19 p.m. ET (2229 GMT) November 17, 1999
>
> BOSTON - In the week after buying a handgun, the purchaser
> was 57 times more likely than the general population to
> commit suicide, according to a study of California handgun
> buyers published in Thursday's New England Journal of
> Medicine.
>
> The study, which followed 238,292 people who bought a
> handgun in California in 1991, found that men were four
> times more likely to commit suicide in the year after they
> purchased a handgun than men in general.
>
> Women, who bought just 12 percent of guns in California,
> faced a suicide risk 16 times higher than the rest of the
> female population during the first year of gun ownership,
> the study found.
>
> The report found that higher suicide risk persists for at
> least six years after a gun is bought.
>
> "The purchase of a handgun is associated with substantial
> changes in the risk of violent death,'' said the research
> team, led by Dr. Garen J. Wintemute of the University of
> California at Davis.
>
> Among legal handgun buyers, suicide by any means was the
> leading cause of death during the first year of ownership,
> accounting for 24.5 percent of deaths, compared with 1.7
> percent of all deaths among adult Californians in 1991 and
> 1992.
>
> Among handgun buyers in California, firearms-related suicide
> was the second leading cause of death. Heart disease ranked
> first; cancer ranked third.
>
> "Of all handgun purchasers who committed suicide by firearms
> during the six-year observation period, 25 percent of women
> and 13.7 percent of men did so within a month after buying
> their handguns,'' the researchers reported.
>
> When the Wintemute study looked at the risk of being
> murdered, they found that female gun owners were twice as
> likely as the rest of the population to be killed by a gun.
>
> The researchers called that finding "striking.''
>
> "It may be that many women purchase handguns for protection
> against violence from an intimate partner and that these
> handguns are used by the partners against them,'' they said.
>
> On the other hand, male gun owners were 16 percent less
> likely to be shot themselves and 34 percent less likely to
> be murdered by any means than the overall population.
>
> Because handgun owners were also less likely to die from
> cancer, accidents or any other cause, those statistics may
> reflect the fact that the average gun buyer tends to be more
> affluent, less likely to live in a bad neighborhood or
> suffer from poor health, the researchers said.
>
> But an editorial in the Journal says that the lower murder
> rate among male gun owners "may represent a true protective
> effect of handgun purchase and needs to be considered
> seriously and examined further.''
>
> The editorial, by Dr. Mark Rosenberg of the Collaborative
> Center for Child Well-being, James Mercy of the Medical
> College of Wisconsin, and Lloyd Potter of the U.S. Centers
> for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta said the new
> findings "do not demonstrate that the purchase of a firearm
> caused suicidal behavior or actually increased the risk of
> suicide among those who purchased handguns.''
>
> Because firearms tend to be more lethal than other means of
> suicide, they said, the challenge is "to find a way to
> prevent such purchasers of handguns from committing
> suicide.''
> comments@newsdigital.com
> ) 1999, News America Digital Publishing, Inc. d/b/a Fox News
> Online.
> All rights reserved. Fox News is a registered trademark of
> 20th Century Fox Film Corp.
> ) Reuters Ltd. All rights reserved

http://www.foxnews.com/news/wires2/1117/n_rt_1117_159.sml
 
It's a common fallacy of logic. Can't remember the exact name, but it's when one confuses two associated events with causation. Yes, two events may be associated or correlated (here, gun purchase and suicide), but just because one happens after the other does NOT necessarily mean one CAUSES the other. The reason why (as here) is because BOTH associated items are ALSO associated with a separate, third item, which, as it turns out, causes BOTH correlated items. That causal factor in this case which causes both the gun purchase and the suicide is depression/wanting to die/being suicidal. The purchase did cause the suicide any more than buying a spare tire causes a flat, though you may be more likely to buy one if you anticipate going on a long trip or onto back roads where a flat might be highly likely.
 
Futo, False Cause or Post hoc, or when x is assumed to be the cause of y only because x preceded y in time. "If it was so, it might be; and if it were so ,it would be; but as it isn't, it ain't. Thats logic." - Lewis Carroll
 
No, no, guys. Two can play that game. Didn't you see where the purchase of a firearm reduces the risk of cancer and heart disease? There must be a protective aura around a firearm too, because we are less likely to be involved in accidents. I don't know about you, but for an increased suicide risk I will happily reap the benefits of being cancer and accident free along with the 'true protective effect of handgun purchase'.
 
There was a report earlier this year that in 1998 Japan saw a suicide rate of 98 people per day!
This was obviously accomplished without the assistance of easily available firearms.
Whatever stresses may lead a person to choose taking their own life is not likely to be averted because of the absence of a particular means of doing so.
 
My response to fox:

Re: "Handguns Dramatically Increase Suicide Risk-Study"

All that is needed to believe this story is to ignore
the Japanese suicide rate that, last year, exceeded
32,000 -- a record. This in a nation nearly devoid of
firearms. Go figure.
 
Then again, maybe people contemplating suicide buy hadnguns ? So what ? I can't imagine people buy a gun and it sits there in the night table whispering "Hey, look into my barrel and snap the trigger . . mmmmmmm you don't know what you are missing . . .go ahead . . ."

Those voices are back again . . .

[This message has been edited by Dark Avenger (edited November 18, 1999).]
 
If you think GUNS are bad, check out the evils of BREAD!

12 Reasons We Should Refrain From Eating Bread

1. More than 98 percent of convicted felons are bread users.

2. Fully HALF of all children who grow up in bread-consuming households score below average on standardized tests.

3. In the 18th century, when virtually all bread was baked in the home, the average life expectancy was less than 50 years; infant mortality rates were unacceptably high; many women died in childbirth; and diseases such as typhoid, yellow fever, and influenza ravaged whole nations.

4. More than 90 percent of violent crimes are committed within 24 hours of eating bread.

5. Bread is made from a substance called "dough." It has been proven that as little as one pound of dough can be used to suffocate a mouse. The average American eats more bread than that in one month!

6. Primitive tribal societies that have no bread exhibit a low incidence of cancer, Alzheimer's, Parkinson's disease, and osteoporosis.

7. Bread has been proven to be addictive. Subjects deprived of bread and given only water to eat begged for bread after as little as two days.

8. Bread is often a "gateway" food item, leading the user to "harder" items such as butter, jelly, peanut butter, and even cold cuts.

9. Bread has been proven to absorb water. Since the human body is more than 90 percent water, it follows that eating bread could lead to your body being taken over by this absorptive food product, turning you into a soggy, gooey bread-pudding person.

10. Newborn babies can choke on bread.

11. Bread is baked at temperatures as high as 400 degrees Fahrenheit! That kind of heat can kill an adult in less than one minute.

12. Most American bread eaters are utterly unable to distinguish between significant scientific fact and meaningless statistical babbling.

In light of these frightening statistics, we propose the following bread restrictions:

1. No sale of bread to minors.

2. A nationwide "Just Say No To Toast" campaign, complete celebrity TV spots and bumper stickers.

3. A 300 percent federal tax on all bread to pay for all the societal ills we might associate with bread.

4. No animal or human images, nor any primary colors (which may appeal to children) may be used to promote bread usage.

5. The establishment of "Bread-free" zones around schools.

Gotta love faulty logic.
SNT
 
I particularly enjoyed this statistic:

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><HR>On the other hand, male gun owners were 16 percent less likely to be shot themselves and 34 percent less likely to be murdered by any means than the overall population.[/quote]

Gee...I plan on using this quote a lot. Thanks for the research, dude!

That's even more evidence against the lie from Dr. Kellerman that states that a gun in the home makes you 43 times to be murdered by a friend or family member than to use the gun in self-defense.
 
SNT;

That was awesome, but you missed the obvious in regard to this thread:

In excess of 99% of suicides in the entire country last year were preceded by eating bread within the week prior.
 
Seriously, where can I read up on all this Ad Hoc Post Hoc Proctor Hoc stuff?

I took Philosophy 103/ Logic in College, but it was a community college before I got to University and I don't think they gave me as good a class as I would have liked. We were introduced to deciphering arguments, but many people here seem to be better than I. So, where do I learn?

Thanks.

Ps- In laymans terms, this is like when they told my generation that Heavy Metal music and role-playing games made you a criminal. No....the truth is, a lot of punk kids did listen to Heavy Metal, but that did NOT mean that if you listened to heavy metal you were a punk kid.
Like Rap today. Yes, many criminals listen to Rap and are part of that culture, but that does not mean that the other way around is true. That just because you listen to Rap you are not a criminal.

[This message has been edited by Red Bull (edited November 19, 1999).]
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top