Considering ONLY the factors you mentioned, the M-1 probably wins. Of course, it's partly a religious question: do you spray and pray?
But as Glock10 intimated, there are other factors you might wish to consider, especially the ones concerning ammo.
There are many more readily available types of ammunition for the Marlin than there are for the M-1.
No matter how reliable a semi-auto carbine may have proved in the past, a lever action works as long as you have a hand to work the lever.
Ammo, magazines, and parts for the M-1 may be available for a long time to come. But the odds are that a hundred years from now, with equal care, the Marlin will still be shooting, while the M-1 is rusting in a landfill.
For HD, PC is a consideration. The DA will have a harder time selling a bum rap to the grand jury if you can claim that you defended yourself with your 'deer rifle'.
I'm pretty sure that a good new M-1 Carbine, plus the necessary spare magazines, will cost a lot more than a brand new Marlin, even at the inflated price situation that Cowboy shooting has created.
I suspect that, paper ballistics aside, the blow struck by most .44 Mag loads is greater than that of the M-1 .30 round.
And the Marlin is a handsome piece, while the M-1 is as homely as a pump handle. (Yeah, pride of ownership is a valid criterion of ownership, too.)
On the whole, I guess you can understand why I'd choose the lever gun. And I did. (And BTW I shot expert with the little M-1 chatterbox, before many TFL'rs were born)