Combat diver, you are pretty well correct there, but many small tests may have the small individual tests slightly skewed by low test count and less efficient testing methods.
You are, however, correct. A solid yes or no answer will probably be the same either way.
Some people are insisting that DNA is the only way to provide guilt, since probability of suspects with matching DNA is ridiculously small.
People forget that while DNA depends on only a few markers, circumstantial evidence can provide even better evidence.
Security cameras recorded suspect nearby, suspect caught with box of ammo from same lot, finding matching expended casings at another location, fibers, shoe prints, threatening emails, the list of possible"markers" is pretty long. If enough of these markers are there, if they are solid enough, they represent a case that's just as solid as DNA.