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- Thread starter 9mmMike
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Article April 17, 2000/Volume 5, Number 31
Have Gun, Will Vote
It turns out that guns are more popular than gun control.
by Fred Barnes
William Schneider couldn’t believe his eyes. The CNN commentator and fellow
at the American Enterprise Institute felt there must be something wrong with
a recent CNN poll. It showed Americans are evenly divided on whether
George W. Bush, who doesn’t talk much about guns, or Al Gore, who has
made gun control a theme of his presidential campaign, handles the “gun
issue” better. Schneider requested the question be asked again. It was—with
the same result. Meanwhile, another poll asked if Bush or Gore would do “a
better job of handling gun control.” Schneider, a polling expert, thought this
question invited people to say Gore. Nonetheless, Bush won by a half-dozen
percentage points.
The gun issue isn’t supposed to be playing this way in 2000. Democrats,
liberals, the press, most of the Washington political community, and even a
good number of Republicans thought the politics of the issue had been
transformed, post-Columbine. Indeed, the massacre at the Colorado high
school a year ago did prompt a rise in public support for more gun control.
And the Senate responded within weeks by passing a stringent new law
restricting gun sales and production. When the House balked, it seemed a
major issue had been created. No longer would the intensity be on the side of
the National Rifle Association and gun owners. Now, it would be with
middle-class voters, suburbanites, soccer moms, and others who favor
sweeping gun control, including registration of all handguns. They would
force queasy Republicans to swallow gun control or else lose in this fall’s
election.
Quite the opposite has happened. The intensity has shifted—strengthening
the foes of gun control. NRA membership is soaring and may reach 4 million
by year’s end. Most Republicans feel politically secure on the gun issue, and
President Clinton has jettisoned the not-so-popular phrase “gun control” in
favor of “gun safety.” Democrats made gun control the overriding issue last
fall in the Virginia and New Jersey legislative races. The result was GOP
capture of both houses of the Virginia legislature for the first time ever and
easy Republican retention of the New Jersey statehouse. In poll after poll,
public support for gun control has dipped. More important, public belief that
more gun restrictions are the answer to gun violence, especially among
youths, has faded. “What has always been true of the gun issue is still true,”
says Schneider. “The issue has far more salience for gun owners than for gun
control advocates. Gun owners are always ready to vote this issue. Gun
controllers rarely vote the issue.”
A new twist to the debate has been crucial in undermining the drive for gun
control. This is the argument, stridently voiced by NRA executive vice
president Wayne LaPierre, that existing gun laws should be enforced before
any new ones are enacted. “Finally, their side has an argument the public is
receptive to,” says Karlyn Bowman, who monitors polls for AEI. NRA officials
are apologetic about the crude way LaPierre made his point on national TV.
He accused the Clinton administration of not enforcing gun laws to insure a
certain level of gun violence in the country, thus spurring support for gun
control. But LaPierre’s tactic worked. “It caused people to pay attention to
what he is saying,” says Bowman. “They listened to his argument.”
Polls bear this out. A survey in April by ABC News/Washington Post asked
whether “passing stricter gun control laws” or “stricter enforcement of
existing laws” is the best way to curb gun violence. Enforcement was
preferred by 53 percent to 33 percent. In a survey for YRock, the Young
Republican website, GOP pollster Frank Luntz asked for reaction to this
statement: “Passing gun laws is what keeps politicians’ careers alive.
Enforcing gun laws is what keeps the rest of us alive.” Sixty percent agreed,
34 percent didn’t. Another Luntz question asked what would be more
successful in reducing crimes committed with guns. Enforcement of existing
laws and tough sentencing beat more gun control with trigger locks and gun
show restrictions by better than 2-to-1.
Republicans have not only jumped on enforcement as an alternative to gun
control, they’ve forced Demo-crats to go along. By championing enforcement,
Republicans have deftly adjusted to a change in the gun debate that
Democrats were certain would help their side. As recently as two years ago,
Republicans figured they could ignore the gun debate entirely. Now, given the
level of media obsession with guns, that’s risky. The enforcement issue gives
Republicans a popular theme. In this regard, they first seized on Project
Exile, a program in Richmond, Virginia, in which criminals who use guns are
prosecuted in federal court, where trials are swifter and sentences harsher.
The Clinton administration privately opposed expansion of Project Exile until
last year when a Senate hearing on it was scheduled. The Saturday before,
the president reversed the policy and used his radio address to praise the
program.
In the House, Republicans believe they have, as one aide put it, “totally
shifted the debate to enforcement and other issues.” Just this month, they
pushed through a bill that offers grants to help states work with federal
prosecutors and impose mandatory jail sentences on criminals who use or
carry guns during a crime. These sentences would be added to the prison
term for the crime itself. Democratic leaders opposed the measure, but it
passed 358 to 60. The New York Times reported the next day that
Republicans were “conceding vulnerability on a hot campaign issue.” Actually,
Republicans were exploiting an advantage.
To see how safe Republicans really feel on the gun issue, I met recently with
what amounted to a focus group of a half-dozen House members. They
included one from a suburban district in the Northeast, one from a
Midwestern city, another from the Midwest suburbs. All but one represent
swing districts. When confronted with the theory that the politics of the issue
now favors the gun controllers, they all disagreed strongly. On separate gun
legislation now before a deadlocked House-Senate conference, they feel
they’ve satisfied both sides. They’re for background checks on purchasers at
gun shows, pleasing soccer moms, but only for checks that have NRA
approval.
What if this gun legislation—not the enforcement bill—remains bottled up? No
problem. The public has dramatically lost faith in gun control as a solution to
violence in America, notably to gun violence in schools. What would have the
greatest impact in reducing school violence? Only 10 percent said gun control
in the Luntz poll, while 77 percent said teaching about right and wrong. Given
other choices, 84 percent said parental involvement was the answer, while 14
percent answered gun control.
One person who hasn’t been surprised by voters’ attitudes about guns is Karl
Rove, George W. Bush’s chief strategist. Bush, of course, echoes the
Republican line about first enforcing, and then tinkering with, existing gun
laws. Rove characterizes the presidential race as between “one guy who says
the answer is more gun control” and “the other guy who says we’ve got laws
on the books people are breaking . . . and while we need a few
improvements, we need to send a message that when you use a gun, you go
to jail.” The second guy wins 60 percent to 20 percent, according to Rove. He
exaggerates, but he and Bush understand that the new politics of gun control
are a lot like the old.
By Fred
------------------
Either you believe in the Second Amendment or you don't.
Stick it to 'em! RKBA!
Have Gun, Will Vote
It turns out that guns are more popular than gun control.
by Fred Barnes
William Schneider couldn’t believe his eyes. The CNN commentator and fellow
at the American Enterprise Institute felt there must be something wrong with
a recent CNN poll. It showed Americans are evenly divided on whether
George W. Bush, who doesn’t talk much about guns, or Al Gore, who has
made gun control a theme of his presidential campaign, handles the “gun
issue” better. Schneider requested the question be asked again. It was—with
the same result. Meanwhile, another poll asked if Bush or Gore would do “a
better job of handling gun control.” Schneider, a polling expert, thought this
question invited people to say Gore. Nonetheless, Bush won by a half-dozen
percentage points.
The gun issue isn’t supposed to be playing this way in 2000. Democrats,
liberals, the press, most of the Washington political community, and even a
good number of Republicans thought the politics of the issue had been
transformed, post-Columbine. Indeed, the massacre at the Colorado high
school a year ago did prompt a rise in public support for more gun control.
And the Senate responded within weeks by passing a stringent new law
restricting gun sales and production. When the House balked, it seemed a
major issue had been created. No longer would the intensity be on the side of
the National Rifle Association and gun owners. Now, it would be with
middle-class voters, suburbanites, soccer moms, and others who favor
sweeping gun control, including registration of all handguns. They would
force queasy Republicans to swallow gun control or else lose in this fall’s
election.
Quite the opposite has happened. The intensity has shifted—strengthening
the foes of gun control. NRA membership is soaring and may reach 4 million
by year’s end. Most Republicans feel politically secure on the gun issue, and
President Clinton has jettisoned the not-so-popular phrase “gun control” in
favor of “gun safety.” Democrats made gun control the overriding issue last
fall in the Virginia and New Jersey legislative races. The result was GOP
capture of both houses of the Virginia legislature for the first time ever and
easy Republican retention of the New Jersey statehouse. In poll after poll,
public support for gun control has dipped. More important, public belief that
more gun restrictions are the answer to gun violence, especially among
youths, has faded. “What has always been true of the gun issue is still true,”
says Schneider. “The issue has far more salience for gun owners than for gun
control advocates. Gun owners are always ready to vote this issue. Gun
controllers rarely vote the issue.”
A new twist to the debate has been crucial in undermining the drive for gun
control. This is the argument, stridently voiced by NRA executive vice
president Wayne LaPierre, that existing gun laws should be enforced before
any new ones are enacted. “Finally, their side has an argument the public is
receptive to,” says Karlyn Bowman, who monitors polls for AEI. NRA officials
are apologetic about the crude way LaPierre made his point on national TV.
He accused the Clinton administration of not enforcing gun laws to insure a
certain level of gun violence in the country, thus spurring support for gun
control. But LaPierre’s tactic worked. “It caused people to pay attention to
what he is saying,” says Bowman. “They listened to his argument.”
Polls bear this out. A survey in April by ABC News/Washington Post asked
whether “passing stricter gun control laws” or “stricter enforcement of
existing laws” is the best way to curb gun violence. Enforcement was
preferred by 53 percent to 33 percent. In a survey for YRock, the Young
Republican website, GOP pollster Frank Luntz asked for reaction to this
statement: “Passing gun laws is what keeps politicians’ careers alive.
Enforcing gun laws is what keeps the rest of us alive.” Sixty percent agreed,
34 percent didn’t. Another Luntz question asked what would be more
successful in reducing crimes committed with guns. Enforcement of existing
laws and tough sentencing beat more gun control with trigger locks and gun
show restrictions by better than 2-to-1.
Republicans have not only jumped on enforcement as an alternative to gun
control, they’ve forced Demo-crats to go along. By championing enforcement,
Republicans have deftly adjusted to a change in the gun debate that
Democrats were certain would help their side. As recently as two years ago,
Republicans figured they could ignore the gun debate entirely. Now, given the
level of media obsession with guns, that’s risky. The enforcement issue gives
Republicans a popular theme. In this regard, they first seized on Project
Exile, a program in Richmond, Virginia, in which criminals who use guns are
prosecuted in federal court, where trials are swifter and sentences harsher.
The Clinton administration privately opposed expansion of Project Exile until
last year when a Senate hearing on it was scheduled. The Saturday before,
the president reversed the policy and used his radio address to praise the
program.
In the House, Republicans believe they have, as one aide put it, “totally
shifted the debate to enforcement and other issues.” Just this month, they
pushed through a bill that offers grants to help states work with federal
prosecutors and impose mandatory jail sentences on criminals who use or
carry guns during a crime. These sentences would be added to the prison
term for the crime itself. Democratic leaders opposed the measure, but it
passed 358 to 60. The New York Times reported the next day that
Republicans were “conceding vulnerability on a hot campaign issue.” Actually,
Republicans were exploiting an advantage.
To see how safe Republicans really feel on the gun issue, I met recently with
what amounted to a focus group of a half-dozen House members. They
included one from a suburban district in the Northeast, one from a
Midwestern city, another from the Midwest suburbs. All but one represent
swing districts. When confronted with the theory that the politics of the issue
now favors the gun controllers, they all disagreed strongly. On separate gun
legislation now before a deadlocked House-Senate conference, they feel
they’ve satisfied both sides. They’re for background checks on purchasers at
gun shows, pleasing soccer moms, but only for checks that have NRA
approval.
What if this gun legislation—not the enforcement bill—remains bottled up? No
problem. The public has dramatically lost faith in gun control as a solution to
violence in America, notably to gun violence in schools. What would have the
greatest impact in reducing school violence? Only 10 percent said gun control
in the Luntz poll, while 77 percent said teaching about right and wrong. Given
other choices, 84 percent said parental involvement was the answer, while 14
percent answered gun control.
One person who hasn’t been surprised by voters’ attitudes about guns is Karl
Rove, George W. Bush’s chief strategist. Bush, of course, echoes the
Republican line about first enforcing, and then tinkering with, existing gun
laws. Rove characterizes the presidential race as between “one guy who says
the answer is more gun control” and “the other guy who says we’ve got laws
on the books people are breaking . . . and while we need a few
improvements, we need to send a message that when you use a gun, you go
to jail.” The second guy wins 60 percent to 20 percent, according to Rove. He
exaggerates, but he and Bush understand that the new politics of gun control
are a lot like the old.
By Fred
------------------
Either you believe in the Second Amendment or you don't.
Stick it to 'em! RKBA!
<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><HR>Schneider, a polling expert, thought this
question invited people to say Gore.[/quote]
And they admit this!!!??? They admit it was supposed to be a gimme for Gore.
Mouth-breathing lying ratbastards
------------------
"Quis custodiet ipsos custodes" RKBA!
question invited people to say Gore.[/quote]
And they admit this!!!??? They admit it was supposed to be a gimme for Gore.
Mouth-breathing lying ratbastards
------------------
"Quis custodiet ipsos custodes" RKBA!
I look forward to the time when we spend less energy stonewalling new gun control and more energy repealing the crap that has already slid past our efforts.
------------------
NRA/GOA/SAF/USMC
"Is your church BATF approved?"
Oregon residents please support the Oregon Firearms Federation, our only "No compromise" gun lobby.
http://www.oregonfirearms.org
------------------
NRA/GOA/SAF/USMC
"Is your church BATF approved?"
Oregon residents please support the Oregon Firearms Federation, our only "No compromise" gun lobby.
http://www.oregonfirearms.org