OK. The pictures below are of cast bullets I've made and/or hand loaded and what they looked like after firing. All these are fired from a .357 into a 24" deep bullet trap consisting of shredded rubber mulch. Ballistics gel it ain't; but the penetration/expansion of the 158 grain sjhp is very similar to published results of the same bullet in gel.
Pic one is the 358156 Lymann bullet cast in near pure lead with just enough tin to get fillout in the mold. This is dead soft lead and is nearly identical in performance to the 158 grain jsp.
Now the same bullet recovered from the mulch, penetrated 22" into the mulch and deformed a bit with slight expansion to .42" MV=1262 fps ( I'm NOT impressed)
Now, here are pics of a the same cast bullet that I hollow pointed to similar depth and width as factory ammo. In the pic are 4 recovered bullets. The lower left was recovered from 18" into the trap..this was a 38 special soft swagged lead hollow point launched at a mere 750 fps from a snub nose revolver (are you impressed with the expansion? I'm not.)
The lower right is a Fiocci 148gr (ADVERTIZED as 1500fps but chronographed at 1150fps) 13" with fair expansion. The upper left was the magtech 158gr sjhp at 1200fps with 16"penetration and .59" expansion The upper right is my home brew hollow point boolit at 1250fps, 17" penetration and expansion to .62"
Here's a side view of the 3 that actually expanded.
And finally, if you want the ultimate in penetration here is the hard cast 185 grain LBT style boolit that I use for thick skinned game (this I have taken A wild pig 250# from 50 yards...through and through penetration. Penetrates all 24" in the bullet trap and dents the arresting plate (1230fps)
I think your wasting your time if you are on the vain quest for the "magic bullet" If you want expansion, jacketed or not, you need three things (Barnes bullets notwithstanding): 1 soft lead, 2 wide hollow point, and 3 Enough velocity to make the bullet expand....the mass of the bullet will help with penetration. You seem to be over-thinking all this. Get out to the range and start shooting.