Fellow TFL'ers,
In light of some recent press reports, I've done some research that you'll probably find valuable.
The anti-gun community has questioned the NRA's statements that Australia's crime rates have risen due to their recent gun bans. The NRA reported some dramatic findings, including that the armed robbery rate rose 44% within 12 months of the ban. Anti-gunners are now saying that the NRA is wrong because Australia's murder rate is down. Who is right? I'll give you the details and sources here.
In simplest terms, the NRA is correct (albeit a few minor discrepancies). To confuse matters, the anti-gunners are also technically correct, but they're clearly distorting the big picture.
Both sides are quoting the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Fortunately, ABS's web site posts all of these key statistics. (Their home page can be found at http://www.abs.gov.au/ and the statistics in question can be found at http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/c311215.NSF/Australia+Now +-+A+Statistical+Profile/2C2A842ACC44F31DCA2567220072E990/ ).
The gun ban occurred in 1996. So we're most concerned with what happened to crime rates in the following 12 months. The NRA claimed the following statistics (from 1996 to 1997):
Armed-robberies rose 44%
Assaults rose 8.6%
Homicides rose 3.2%
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) at the above web addresses, the following statistics are shown (from 1996 to 1997):
Armed robberies rose 44.7% (6,256 to 9,054).
Assaults rose 9.1% (114,156 to 124,500).
Murders rose 2.9% (312 to 321).
This would lead us to believe that the NRA slightly underestimated the rise in armed robberies and assaults and slightly overestimated the rise in the murder rate. These small discrepancies might be accounted for in the fact that crime statistics are often changed by small amounts later in the year as more data becomes available. Whatever the reason, the NRA's statistics are well in line with the latest data available.
The anti-gunners insist that murders are down. According to the ABS, they're correct - but only if you look at the data from the next year. There were 321 murders in 1997 and 284 in 1998 - an 11.5% decrease. The NRA is correct that the murder rate increased from 1996 to 1997 and the anti-gunners are correct that it fell from 1997 to 1998.
But in a typical anti-gun half-truth, they've left out the rest of the story. If you look at what's happened in the two year period from 1996 to 1998, Australia's crime rates continue to rise - and in some cases, quite dramatically. Here are some samples of the ABS's crime statistics from 1996 to 1998:
Armed robberies rose 73.4% (6,256 to 10,850).
Assaults rose 16.5% (114,156 to 132,967).
Unlawful entry with intent rose 8.4% (402,079 to 435,670).
Attempted murders rose 14.0% (335 to 382).
Murders plus attempted murders rose 2.9% (647 to 666).
According to the ABS, crime rates are clearly rising. Oddly enough, the murder rate did FALL 9% from 1996 to 1998 (312 to 284). But this may be explained by the "small number effect". This is because these numbers are already quite small so that when there are 28 fewer murders over a period of two years, it seems like a dramatic effect. Crime statistics on armed robberies, assaults, and unlawful entry with intent are much larger numbers and therefore the increases shown in these categories are more likely to be accurate representations of Australia's rising crime rates.
It's sad that the only thing the media is likely to report will be that "according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, murders are down in Australia since the gun ban went into effect, which contradicts the NRA's claims that crime is up". They will not report that their murder rate was already low - even before the ban. They will not report that armed robberies, assaults, attempted murders, unlawful entries with intent, and virtually all other forms of crime are up as much as 73%. And they certainly won't tell the public that the NRA did NOT misrepresent the rise in crime rates in Australia from 1996 to 1997.
[This message has been edited by Tortuga (edited March 23, 2000).]
In light of some recent press reports, I've done some research that you'll probably find valuable.
The anti-gun community has questioned the NRA's statements that Australia's crime rates have risen due to their recent gun bans. The NRA reported some dramatic findings, including that the armed robbery rate rose 44% within 12 months of the ban. Anti-gunners are now saying that the NRA is wrong because Australia's murder rate is down. Who is right? I'll give you the details and sources here.
In simplest terms, the NRA is correct (albeit a few minor discrepancies). To confuse matters, the anti-gunners are also technically correct, but they're clearly distorting the big picture.
Both sides are quoting the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Fortunately, ABS's web site posts all of these key statistics. (Their home page can be found at http://www.abs.gov.au/ and the statistics in question can be found at http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/c311215.NSF/Australia+Now +-+A+Statistical+Profile/2C2A842ACC44F31DCA2567220072E990/ ).
The gun ban occurred in 1996. So we're most concerned with what happened to crime rates in the following 12 months. The NRA claimed the following statistics (from 1996 to 1997):
Armed-robberies rose 44%
Assaults rose 8.6%
Homicides rose 3.2%
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) at the above web addresses, the following statistics are shown (from 1996 to 1997):
Armed robberies rose 44.7% (6,256 to 9,054).
Assaults rose 9.1% (114,156 to 124,500).
Murders rose 2.9% (312 to 321).
This would lead us to believe that the NRA slightly underestimated the rise in armed robberies and assaults and slightly overestimated the rise in the murder rate. These small discrepancies might be accounted for in the fact that crime statistics are often changed by small amounts later in the year as more data becomes available. Whatever the reason, the NRA's statistics are well in line with the latest data available.
The anti-gunners insist that murders are down. According to the ABS, they're correct - but only if you look at the data from the next year. There were 321 murders in 1997 and 284 in 1998 - an 11.5% decrease. The NRA is correct that the murder rate increased from 1996 to 1997 and the anti-gunners are correct that it fell from 1997 to 1998.
But in a typical anti-gun half-truth, they've left out the rest of the story. If you look at what's happened in the two year period from 1996 to 1998, Australia's crime rates continue to rise - and in some cases, quite dramatically. Here are some samples of the ABS's crime statistics from 1996 to 1998:
Armed robberies rose 73.4% (6,256 to 10,850).
Assaults rose 16.5% (114,156 to 132,967).
Unlawful entry with intent rose 8.4% (402,079 to 435,670).
Attempted murders rose 14.0% (335 to 382).
Murders plus attempted murders rose 2.9% (647 to 666).
According to the ABS, crime rates are clearly rising. Oddly enough, the murder rate did FALL 9% from 1996 to 1998 (312 to 284). But this may be explained by the "small number effect". This is because these numbers are already quite small so that when there are 28 fewer murders over a period of two years, it seems like a dramatic effect. Crime statistics on armed robberies, assaults, and unlawful entry with intent are much larger numbers and therefore the increases shown in these categories are more likely to be accurate representations of Australia's rising crime rates.
It's sad that the only thing the media is likely to report will be that "according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, murders are down in Australia since the gun ban went into effect, which contradicts the NRA's claims that crime is up". They will not report that their murder rate was already low - even before the ban. They will not report that armed robberies, assaults, attempted murders, unlawful entries with intent, and virtually all other forms of crime are up as much as 73%. And they certainly won't tell the public that the NRA did NOT misrepresent the rise in crime rates in Australia from 1996 to 1997.
[This message has been edited by Tortuga (edited March 23, 2000).]
).