How big of a value hit are USGI 1911 owners going to take?

I brought up the same question months ago right after the Alabama Congressman or was it a Senator proposed the Bill.

It will probably depend upon how much the CMP sets the price on the pistols. Then there is the question as to how good a condition the pistols are in.

One would think the increased number in circulation would hurt the value of those pistols currently held by private owners unless they are of highly collectible quality or have some provenance.
 
Don't count your chickens (or in this case set a value on them) before they are hatched. In today's poisonous anti-gun atmosphere, that bill will never pass even one house of Congress, and Obama would certainly never sign it.

There is also the danger that it could be "amended" to a handgun ban or something equally unacceptable. (Remember that the ban on new machinegun registration was an amendment to the FOPA. The NRA thought it could be removed later; wrong.)


Jim
 
As I understand it, the bill passed both houses with a veto-proof majority, and Obama has signed it. The NRA thanked him for that. All that said, I think we are a long way from seeing any.
 
I personally don't think it will affect prices too much - if at all. Here's why?

1. The mere fact that CMP is offering them will entice some people to buy a 1911 even if they never wanted to own one before. Increased demand tends to have an upward pressure on prices.
2. The latest figure I heard was somewhere around 100K 1911s at CMP. There were something like 2.7 million 1911s produced for the military - many of which are already in civilian hands. Ownership dilution by the new CMP pistols shouldn't be enough to cause major market upheaval. The slight downward pressure caused by the increased number should be offset by reason #1.
 
Condition, condition, condition. I would bet money that the majority of those pistols have been rebuilt at least once. A mismatched gun is going to have no where near the value of a matching, original finish gun.

If the CMP markets the 1911's like it markets the Garands and Carbines, they will probably auction the nicer ones and they will no doubt command prices commensurate with similar condition guns that are all ready in civilian hands. Even the lessor ones will be subject to grading and the better guns will be more money.

I have a few GI 1911's and I am not losing any sleep over what the CMP guns will do to the market.
 
Yep, and I am glad to admit I was wrong and behind the news.

As for the value question, I doubt there will be much long term effect. There may be a price drop for a year or so, then the market value will be back up to where it was before, if not higher due to the CMP sales generating interest.

Just a nasty thought. If the new provision only "allows" CMP to sell those guns, the administration has plenty of ways to throw a monkey wrench in the works. Obama (or a puppet general) could simply order the Army not to release them to CMP, or require that they be deactivated, or invent some urgent military need, or destroy them first.

But the news so far is good. Let us hope it stays that way.

Jim
 
They are limited to 10,000 a year.
I expect most will be arsenal reworks and that will be enough to depress the market somewhat.
They will undoubtedly auction the originals and they will bring nearly the current speculator market prices.
 
How big of a value hit are USGI 1911 owners going to take?
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The better question is "Who cares?"

No matter how you look at it, greater availability of these firearms is only a good thing (if the military actually releases any to be sold). If that hurts speculator prices, so what? Risk is inherent in any collector market.
 
James K said:
As for the value question, I doubt there will be much long term effect. There may be a price drop for a year or so, then the market value will be back up to where it was before, if not higher due to the CMP sales generating interest.
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Jim Watson said:
I expect most will be arsenal reworks and that will be enough to depress the market somewhat.
They will undoubtedly auction the originals and they will bring nearly the current speculator market prices.
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+1. (+2? ;)) I expect prices to be back where they were 2 years on, and furthermore, I betcha that pistols with CMP certificates will eventually command a slight premium over average run-of-the-mill reworks.
James K said:
Just a nasty thought. If the new provision only "allows" CMP to sell those guns, the administration has plenty of ways to throw a monkey wrench in the works. Obama (or a puppet general) could simply order the Army not to release them to CMP, or require that they be deactivated, or invent some urgent military need, or destroy them first.
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OTOH in a cynically queer bass-ackwards way, it's potentially beneficial from an election-year political standpoint for the POTUS to quietly allow the sale to go forward so his party's candidates can subsequently "discover" the "secret provision" in the law and pledge to have it stopped. This is the administration that allowed Operation Fast and Furious to go forward. :mad: Realistically, you and I both know that most of these pistols will disappear into collectors' safes where they will have zero statistical effect on the overall crime rate. :rolleyes:
 
The market is about to be hit with an influx of GI 1911's, hence, the value of GI 1911's is going to drop. There is no way around it, it's inevitable.
 
With only 10,000 well worn pistols available in a given year the demand will suck them up faster than imagined and affect the resale market not at all.......unless CMP allows multiple purchases instead of "one to a customer" as the "make a buck" boys will buy and turn around and sell at inflated prices.
 
Condition, condition, condition. I would bet money that the majority of those pistols have been rebuilt at least once. A mismatched gun is going to have no where near the value of a matching, original finish gun.
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#1) please, define "rebuilt".

Unless the government ran a program to "rebuild" the 1911a1s after they were retired from service (and I never heard that they did that, if you have information that they did, please share!), then the majority of the pistols were never rebuilt. Many had some repair done, as needed, but very few were ever "rebuilt" in the traditional sense.

#2) please define "mismatched".

We never numbered the parts of the 1911s, only the frame, so there is no possibility of "mismatched numbers" such as can be found with Lugers, P.38s, etc.

There isn't even an "as issued" standard, other than GI configuration. Since the introduction of the 1911A1 in the early 1920s, the standard has been that 1911s would be maintained with 1911A1 parts, as needed.

While I'm not a collector, and therefore might be unaware of some special categories collectors might have made up, as far as I know, there are only two categories, GI 45s are either in the configuration they left the factory, or they are not. Configuration, not condition. Condition (finish) also matters, to the buyer, but not so much to the military, as their standards are essentially either serviceable or non serviceable.

I was a Small Arms Repairman (MOS 45B20) during the mid 70s, while the 1911A1 was the service pistol. I handled, and inspected several thousand pistols. Even repaired a handful of them. ;)

I saw a number of actual 1911s during this time, in unit arms rooms. A FEW were exactly the same pistol that left the factory pre-1920. (varying degrees of finish wear, usually slight)

Most were slightly different from their original configuration, current grips being the usual change. Some were completely 1911A1 guns, other than a 1911 frame. ALL of these guns configurations were "correct" for military service.

Will the (eventual) public sale of 45s affect the value of GI guns currently held? Probably, a bit, for a while. I would sure be nice to be able to get a WWII GI 1911A1 for $300 (again) rather than $8-1100 but I'm not going to hold my breath.

Most likely, collectors will create another tier, "DCM guns" or something like that, and price them differently than "GI takehomes", thus protecting the value they already have in those guns, and creating yet another category for collecting.

One thing I expect to happen, once the DCM guns actually get into the public sector is a flood of whining about how they "have useless tiny sights", "won't feed hollowpoints", "aren't accurate", etc.

Collectors, take heart, because a certain segment of those people are going to rev up their Dremels, get out their hammers & peens, and "FIX" those issues the way they see it done on UTube!

This will reduce the number of collectable guns somewhat, also helping preserve the value of "unBubba'd" pistols, as well.
 
44 AMP said:
One thing I expect to happen, once the DCM guns actually get into the public sector is a flood of whining about how they "have useless tiny sights", "won't feed hollowpoints", "aren't accurate", etc.

Collectors, take heart, because a certain segment of those people are going to rev up their Dremels, get out their hammers & peens, and "FIX" those issues the way they see it done on UTube!
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Sad but true! :mad:

One hopes the CMP guns will be pricier than Filipino knockoffs to keep these shenanigans to a minimum. :rolleyes: I lose no sleep at the sound of a Dremel near a workbench with a Rock Island pistol on it. ;)
 
1. Rebuilt: I would expect a lot of them to be typical AA, etc. reworks. Any necessary repairs with parts on hand, plastic grips, Parkerized. I would expect more to have passed inspection as not needing work. I have seen and heard tell of guns with nothing but an AA stamp, no work done.
Do you think they just shelved them as was, even if much worn?

2. Mismatched: We don't put serial numbers on every part like a Luger, except for the several years that Colt slides were numbered to the receivers, but there is a lot of lore on "Mixmasters." Obvious stuff like slide, receiver, and barrel of different make or different period, then you get down into the small stuff, like a 1911A1 slide stop on a 1911.
 
Grizz12 said:
where are they being sold?
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The CMP's sales office is in Anniston, AL.

The exact details of the M1911 sales have not been worked out as I write this, but the NDAA supposedly contains a provision mandating that the CMP obtain a FFL, so it's a reasonable assumption that they will be delivered like a standard lawful interstate handgun FFL transaction – the buyer will have the pistol shipped to a local FFL for a NICS check and pickup.

There is some debate as to how the CMP will handle shipments to 03 Collector or C&R licensees, who can potentially receive handguns across state lines (just not by US mail!), but there is no way to predict how this will play out.
 
Value only matters at the time of sale or in claiming a certain value for insurance purposes. I don't really care how much a gun in my safe is worth...it's not going anywhere anytime soon.
 
"Unless the government ran a program to "rebuild" the 1911a1s after they were retired from service (and I never heard that they did that, if you have information that they did, please share!), then the majority of the pistols were never rebuilt. Many had some repair done, as needed, but very few were ever "rebuilt" in the traditional sense."

The last contracts for the M1911A1 were cancelled in 1945; the pistol was not "retired from service" until the 1980's, so there was some 35 years of wars and half-wars in which those guns wore, wore out, were repaired and rebuilt. I would be surprised if any turn up with all original parts, let alone factory new.

Jim
 
No matter how you look at it, greater availability of these firearms is only a good thing (if the military actually releases any to be sold). If that hurts speculator prices, so what? Risk is inherent in any collector market.
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And it's an unusual gun buyer who buys a gun with realistic hopes that the gun's value will appreciate faster than inflation. (I said "realistic" -- I know many think they've made an investment... but most of those "investments" are just things that lose value [think buying power] over time.)

If the CMP 1911s sell for more than a new Ruger 1911, there'll be some hard choices to be made.

As for collectors and speculators: based on actual changes in the value of the dollar due to inflation, a gun bought for $600 in 1980 would have to bring the seller $1782 for the seller to purchase something equivalent to what $600 would have bought in 1980. The sale price has to almost TRIPLE just to keep things EVEN!!! Most guns don't appreciate THAT fast, and if they don't, there's no REAL increase in true value, and they can be very poor investments. (Guns are easily converted to cash, however, unlike things like real estate.)

Inflation is a downer. Check out the CPI Inflation calculator, here: http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl
 
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