Gun show observations... Jacksonville, AR

G

globemaster3

New member
Visited a large gun show at a former Wal-Mart in Jacksonville, AR, yesterday and today. It was a large show with a lot of options on rifles, handguns, and there was plenty of ammo!

On the unique Milsurp wide of the house, I saw not 1, but 2 SVT-40s (had never seen one live before) and a couple Hakims. On the more generic side, there were an FN-49, the normal M-1 carbines and Garands (nothing special there WRT examples), a coupe 1903A3s, both 99 and 38-type Arisakas, and a couple M-44 and 91/30s.

Lots of ARs, SKSs, AKs, to include many variants of AK.

Saw plenty of ammo! Lots of M193, M855, even some M856, M118, M72, even some surplus 30-06.

A few common themes: HIGH prices, few customers, and lots of grumbling from the vendors.

HIGH prices: Many of the used guns were in what I'd consider "normal" price range, but there seemed to be a disproportionally large number that were easily $100 or more above Gunbroker listings, and a couple that exceeded new prices. Several of the new guns were at/above MSRP.

Ammo... Still seeing high prices on 5.56 and .22LR. The crazy part was most people were NOT buying it, and the vendors I hit were unwilling to negotiate AT ALL! $600 for 1000 rounds of M193 5.56... $70 for a 525 box on Winchester .22LR. I tried to negotiate on some 6.8 and was flat out told that he could not budge. With cash in hand... and only looking for him to drop $15... and having paid less from my LGS back home (was giving him the benefit of tax)... and 1 hour before closing on the last day! Heck, I would have bought his entire lot of Hornady 6.8 SPC 120 gr SSTs had he budged a couple bucks per box! Nope!

Few customers! There was ample elbow room! Maybe 100-150 folks total walking around inside, both days! Some rows had NOBODY on them! And this is a large show!

And that lead to, Grumbling from the Vendors! A large number were talking openly to each other how they could not believe the low attendance, and that people were just not buying stuff! Well, with the advertised prices starting so high and a general unwillingness to negotiate, what did they expect?

Now, to recognize some good folks, there were some there who were extremely nice, encourgaged me to look at some guns, and were very open about their willingness to negotiate. However, being TDY to the area, and with my understanding of the laws as they apply to me (YMMV), it would not have been legal for me to buy without shipping it home to an FFL. I wish I had written down the names of the good ones, as I would have been happy to offer them some free advertising (I'll remember to do that next time)!

So, you cannot begin trending with a data point of 1, but perhaps we are seeing a shift in the supply/demand relationship that will mark the larger drop in prices... Guess we can only hope!

Is anyone else seeing similar events?
 
Yes

Same deals in Florida.
One of the bigger Collector's shows in Lakeland Florida has similar goings on. No room to negotiate on ammunition, handloading supplies or firearms. Even used firearms. I was quite interested in a S&W Chief Special 9mm and was told in no uncertain term that my offer was way below "book values" but no book could be provided for proof. Where this illusive book is I'll never know. I did make an offer that the Blue Book of Firearms (tm) said was good for a 98% with all accessories. So I'm sure that was not the book quoted. Seller only had the pistol and one magazine.
:eek:
I realize that they are in a business but this not being a Licensed Firearms Dealer profit making is not supposed to be the main theme.
Anyway, the entertainment value of walking this gun show still holds and I did get to chat with some interesting folks, I missed the beef jerky guy.
:(
 
Ammo prices will decrease online and on gunbroker long before they will at gunshows. For some odd reason, high prices are stickiest at gunshows, even to the point where the prices are laughable in the midst of a glut. Don't ask me why - I don't know, but it's always been that way.
 
I almost went to that show. The last time I went to a J-ville gun show, just a couple of months ago, .22LR was running about $65 per 500rounds. No one was buying then, either. Sadly, nobody else in the area seems to have any .22LR. I can get almost anything else, but not that. :(
 
I needed some powder. I brought 2 bricks of 22lr. Someone offered me $50 per brick before I got inside. Sold and bought powder I needed.
 
How about circling around for 30 minutes looking for a parking space?

Seems a good portion of the venue floor empty. They used to have more tables.

The 22 ammo prices were obscene as usual this year. I asked if it was selling and they said yes but I didn't see any moving off the tables at $55-$65 a brick. Didn't see any guns selling either, for that matter.

Saw a pretty cool 303 Martini that had been cut down. Neat $300 rifle. Unfortunately the seller wanted $700 for it. Keep walking...
 
I can tell you why.....

For some odd reason, high prices are stickiest at gunshows, even to the point where the prices are laughable in the midst of a glut. Don't ask me why - I don't know, but it's always been that way.
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I'll tell you why: It's like this ..... that vendor with the $70 bricks of .22lr? He bought his stock at panic prices .... and if he can't sell at panic price+table fee+gas+lunch, then he lost money. If he does not sell, he loses less money (just gas+table+lunch) because he still has his stock, and can HOPE the market will CHANGE and he can make his money back ...... you could say he's betting on more Hope & Change!

:D :D :D
 
+1 What JimBob said. These dealers fell prey to human nature. They sold the stock they had pre-panic at insane prices, got greedy and bought more - albeit at much higher prices - without thinking that "panic prices" are fleeting, now they will end up losing some(most? all?) of the insane profit they made on the first go-round by being forced to sell below their cost on this one. I don't begrudge people in business making a profit, they've just got to be realistic about the way the market works.

At the show here in SLC last weekend, I traded for a nice AR and EoTech sight. Very reasonable price. If it appreciates in a few years, fine. If not, that's fine too.

There weren't NEAR as many people at this show, but it seemed that business was being transacted fairly decently.

I did notice folks still looking for concealed carry. Seems like 40 S&W isn't as favored as it once was. There were hardly any guns in 9mm to be had from what I saw.
 
Jim Bob speaks big truths. Hopefully I will leave this world never having paid a dime per round for 22lr ammo. The clowns bought it at it's zenith. Now they want to unload it on you. We are seeing 22lr at the Walmarts now. The LGS I go to has had 22 ammo in stock for several months now. About 25 bucks per 500 - limit one per day per customer. I think the shortage is winding down. Don't pay 10 cents per round.
 
Wholesale prices (if the dealers in question are buying at wholesale) have not gone up much if any. It's retail that has soared to insane heights. When the big stores get 22 ammo in they price it at regular pre-panic retail because their cost has not risen.
 
wholesale prices have gone up
my cost for primers is what I sold them for last year
and it can cost more to get new stuff in than what I sold it for
add on bad decisions in January we were scrambling to just find anything to put on the table and I overpaid for a bunch of stuff that was supposed to be in stock just to have something on my table witch of course showed up over 4 months later
one of my wholesaler's told to expect a 15% price increase at the beginning of the drought and would say that's pretty close to how it is turning out

Also remember who was doing the gouging and don't buy from them in the future
 
The wife and I enjoy visiting gun shows. We make as many as we can.

One thing I've noticed over the last couple months is that the big shows 500+ tables don't seem as crowded as the smaller shows.

I think that echoes what the OP stated and maybe it's the same 200 people spread out in the big rooms and jammed into the smaller venues.

The difference, at least here in Texas, seems to be the smaller shows have more private and mom/pop vendors as opposed to the higher volume vendors one finds at the bigger venues.

Ammo prices - I don't think ammo will return to pre-panic prices. Politics seems to have a lot of influence on retail pricing. The political climate is teetering on disaster, collapse, revolution ... whatever your particular belief system subscribes to.

Gun prices - with the uncertainty of ammo availability, especially in common calibers, new gun prices have softened quite a bit. But the used market is extremely dry. Owners are not willing to move or trade guns ... again due to the uncertainty.

MHO - YVMV
 
Politics seems to have a lot of influence on retail pricing.
Click to expand...

Well .... Politics and Economics: You can't have the .Fed buying up ammo in billion (with a B) round lots and not have the supply squeezed ...... supply and demand dictate prices ......
 
Gas was about $1.60 the day before Katrina hit. It's been at or above $3 ever since because "the storm interrupted refineries in the region." I think that storm is over by now but gas prices never did go back down. May be the same with ammo.

ronz- I take it you're an FFL? Dealers I have asked said there has not been a significant wholesale increase as yet. When the big box stores have 22 ammo it is priced as it was last fall.
 
I read somewhere that those Billions of rounds were for delivery spread over several years and not all at one time.

I quickly searched but couldn't find my sources.
 
Gas was about $1.60 the day before Katrina hit. It's been at or above $3 ever since because "the storm interrupted refineries in the region." I think that storm is over by now but gas prices never did go back down. May be the same with ammo.
Click to expand...

The gas did not get more expensive, really: the Dollar you bought it with lost value. That's what happens when you inflate your currency by making up Dollars out of nothing ..... IIRC, they called it "Quantitative Easing I, II, III, and now they stopped counting ........
 
Are there any credible sources on the "billions of rounds" conspiracy?

The govt using an IDIQ contract for supply purchases is normal, and there is commonly a maximum amount listed. It doesn't mean you are purchasing the whole amount, nor taking receipt all at once.

If the president of Speer could not find any concrete proof of this supposedly billion rounds being produced, it really casts it into doubt.
 
The wife and I enjoy visiting gun shows. We make as many as we can.

One thing I've noticed over the last couple months is that the big shows 500+ tables don't seem as crowded as the smaller shows.

I think that echoes what the OP stated and maybe it's the same 200 people spread out in the big rooms and jammed into the smaller venues.

The difference, at least here in Texas, seems to be the smaller shows have more private and mom/pop vendors as opposed to the higher volume vendors one finds at the bigger venues.

Ammo prices - I don't think ammo will return to pre-panic prices. Politics seems to have a lot of influence on retail pricing. The political climate is teetering on disaster, collapse, revolution ... whatever your particular belief system subscribes to.

Gun prices - with the uncertainty of ammo availability, especially in common calibers, new gun prices have softened quite a bit. But the used market is extremely dry. Owners are not willing to move or trade guns ... again due to the uncertainty.

MHO - YVMV
Click to expand...

Agreed. I frequent my local gun shows every month when I can. Sometimes for entertainment, other times if I actually need something.

Its funny how most vendors still sell ammo at ridiculous prices, when guns and magazines have normalized already. Last few shows I went to had no lines going in, and plenty of elbow room inside.
 
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