Gun Sales Slow Down Under Trump?

Stats Shooter

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So panic buying has been a reality for gun makers, gun retailers, and gun owners for the past 8 years. Every single time there was some act of violence, or some kind of midterm/general election, we all wondered if a new round of gun rights infringement was just around the corner. Legislative ideas ranging from magazine capacity, auto-loading firearms, certain cosmetic features, caliber restrictions, to ammunition purchase laws have spurred buying around the country. Many have joked that Obama is the single best firearms marketer of all time, and I am sure there is a lot of truth to that.

I also believe however that the surge in gun sales over the last decade is also a function of gun enthusiasts targeting women, and minorities, in an attempt to bring them into the gun ownership fold. Many articles cite that gun ownership is up by nearly 160% among women, and gun ownership among minorities has grown 75% faster than among whites.

Without a doubt, the "panic buying" has had an impact, maybe the largest impact, but it is my firm belief that gun ownership is also simply just growing. One of the best marketing campaigns ever with respect to guns has been taking the perception of handguns in the 1960's and 1970's, which was that hand guns were evil and should be banned, and made them THE primary self defense weapon. In fact, the debates that rage on today with respect to modern sporting rifles was being had in the 60's, 70's, and early 80's with respect to hand guns. In fact, I cannot recall any energetic attempt in the last couple decades to restrict handgun ownership beyond lumping some of them in with modern sporting rifles due to magazine capacity or auto-loading ability.

While I do think panic buying will slow over the next year or so, I believe relaxing certain laws may spur on firearm purchases of a different sort. For instance, if the NFA of the 30's is repealed, we will likely see some degree of increased sales with respect to SBR's or Suppressor ready rifles...at least barrels themselves. Also, a massive increase in the manufacture and sale of suppressors. Also, if CCW reciprocity becomes the law of the land, it will likely further cement concealed carry indefinitely as common and aid to boost self defense hand gun sales.

The other issue is, some folks will reconcile that any administration that follows Trump may not be as firearm friendly so they may stock up on ammunition, or firearm accessories that they deem in danger during a future administration.

So, while i think the short run sales figures of firearms that have been targeted by gun grabbing will be below where they would have gun had Hillary won, I think the longrun sales figures will be very healthy indeed. The other thing is, the sales figures would eventually be nearly zero were the targeted firearms outright banned.
 
Never underestimate the gun grabbers. Just because they are now in the political minority they will do everthing they can to stir the pot at every chance.
 
I just sold the 5 lowers I'd been holding on to just in case... gonna spend the money on trigger upgrades for the guns I've already got and hold off for the next big thing and save my pennies...

I think the next "big thing" will be the HPA... as soon as suppressors come off the NFA, there will be new uncharted territory for the firearms industry.

There is potential for another rush as people who would never have considered a particular type of weapon are willing to pay now that they can suppress them without the hassle... and while the initial buying frenzy will cause a shortage in suppressors and perhaps certain firearms, the long term will spur innovation and competition. Prices have been coming down noticeably just in the past few years on suppressors... just imagine when they can be bought OTC with a 4473.

A year after the HPA passes, the industry as a whole will look a lot different.
A couple years after the HPA passes, you'll be the odd man out at a range shooting unsuppressed.

Also, a side-benefit of the HPA is that it will relieve the ATF of a lot of paperwork, so hopefully stamps for SBR's start coming back in record time.
 
There was no gun sales rush before the election. No ammo frenzy either. Sounds to me like a couple people over spent and are trying to sell.
 
Gun Plummer.
I have heard of regional shortages, especially in California due to state laws, but not really anything at the national level. My local gun store had boxes upon boxes of standard capacity magazines for sale before the election.... today those boxes are still full and for sale. I have also recently seen some manufacturers like Ruger pull out of production of some AR style rifles due to slow sales indicating market weakness at their price point.

Had Hillary won, I think a good share of that inventory would have sold. But right now there is simply an over supply .....might be a good time to buy an AR soon if over supply continues.
 
Black Friday was just about like any other Friday for the three local gunshops around me. They have specials and deals on all kinds of things. There is a glut of ARs and AR parts right now.

Suppressors, Self Defense, Clay Target Sports are the big three areas for 2017. To a lesser extent, Precision is still hot, but small segment and hunting is still growing in the feminization of the common lines.
 
Interesting note on the current"hot items" mark. I say that because I know of two big ranges near me putting in full blown sporting clays ranges....40k investment each, and they require 5 people to run them. Sporting clay shooting appears to be hot right now (and a hell of a lot of fun if you ask me but the incoming teal is tough!)
 
Looks like 2020 campaigns are forming up right now. There's some angry folks out there. 2020 will be a rough election.
 
RickyRick---I'm trying to make it through the week (and it's Thursday)...you want me to worry about 2020??? ;)
 
Interesting note on the current"hot items" mark. I say that because I know of two big ranges near me putting in full blown sporting clays ranges

That comes from industry insiders who measure, poll and adjust the trends. Thing is, it can be a self-fulfilling prophecy in the gun industry since that info goes out and companies shift to marketing and pursuing those segments. The past 8 years it has been Self-Defense, 3Gun and MSRs. So, even though I love 3Gun, it is nice to see a shift away from the sport which so few gun people will ever dip a toe into.
 
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