Gore's Bounce. How long will it last - NY Times

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The last part of article reports some of Bush's internal polling numbers FWIW.

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By The Associated Press
AUSTIN, Texas (AP) -- Things have been going well for Al Gore lately: a big post-convention bounce in the polls, a surge in support from women and now Attorney General Janet Reno's decision not to appoint a special counsel to investigate his 1996 fund raising.

It's all put George W. Bush on the defensive.

After leading in the polls for five months, the Texas governor now finds himself in a nearly dead-even race headed toward the traditional Labor Day kickoff of the general election campaign.

Still, Bush advisers do not expect Gore's surge to persist. And Gore partisans, too, are cautioning against overoptimism.

A series of polls taken right after the Democratic convention showed Gore drawing even -- or even taking a slight advantage. Some of his biggest gains came among women.

The next week or so will be crucial as the numbers settle down, people in both campaigns say. More often than not, the candidate ahead on Labor Day wins the election.

As Gore basked in the afterglow of his convention from the deck of a Mississippi riverboat, the Republican nominee had a ragged few days of campaigning:

-- Bush's assertion to the Veterans of Foreign Wars that President Clinton had let the military decline since 1993 was challenged by both Gore and the only Republican in the Clinton Cabinet, Defense Secretary William Cohen. Defense budgets actually started falling in 1986, during the Reagan administration, and the military last year got the biggest pay raise in a generation.

-- In an unusual admission, Bush told reporters he needed ``to do a better job'' to defend his $1.3 trillion tax cut proposal against criticism that it is too costly and favors the wealthy. Caught off guard by the intensity of the Democratic attack, the Bush campaign was scrambling to prepare a counteroffensive for Thursday to criticize Gore's more modest $500 billion, 10-year tax cut plan.

``He'll underscore how the vice president's plan carves people out and denies them tax relief while (Bush's) plan gives help to the people who need it most,'' said Bush spokesman Ari Fleischer.

-- At a fund-raiser in Des Moines, Bush appeared tired and mangled his words several times, repeating phrases and at one point saying the nation shouldn't be held ``hostile'' by terrorists or rogue powers -- when he meant to say ``hostage.''

Both campaigns were working to fine-tune their messages and keep or regain their footing.

The Republican National Committee, with the knowledge of the Bush campaign, had planned this week to air a biting ad questioning Gore's veracity.

But the spot was pulled at the last minute Wednesday after senior Republicans -- including Bush advisers -- raised objections.

The spot, which had been sent to dozens of TV stations in several states, featured a 1994 Gore interview in which the vice president said neither he nor Clinton had lied in their public careers.

Critics inside the GOP's highest ranks called the interview outdated and questioned whether such a critical ad should run in the midst of Gore's convention bounce. They also feared it could backfire if moderate and independent voters thought Republicans were raising the Monica Lewinsky case again.

Meanwhile, Gore's campaign cautiously welcomed his surge. ``I don't know what to make of the polls. But it's a fact that Al Gore has now emerged from the shadows of President Clinton,'' said Mark Fabiani, Gore's deputy campaign manager.

``The race is even now. The race is right where we want it to be,'' Fabiani said.

He called Reno's decision ``good news ... but I don't think it changes the focus'' of Gore's campaigning.

Bush took his own message from Reno's decision:

``While it's clear that Al Gore engaged in a number of questionable fund-raising activities and gave the FBI statements that continue to raise the issue of his credibility, the American people are sick and tired of all these scandals and investigations. The best way to put all these scandals and investigations behind us is to elect someone new.''

Republicans believe Gore's bounce mostly reflects his consolidation of support among women.

One senior GOP strategist said private polls viewed by the campaign showed Bush down over the weekend but up two or three points in Tuesday's tracking numbers. The official predicted that Bush would be up three or four points on Labor Day.

In one battleground state, Missouri, Bush polls showed him up two points on Sunday and six on Tuesday, when he campaigned in the state.

Pollster Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, said, ``Some or all of Gore's bounce will dissipate. We just don't know how much.''

Charles Black, a veteran consultant who advises the Bush campaign, credits Gore with ``a good speech at the convention and a good bounce in the polls.''

``But he had room for a big bounce,'' Black added. ``I don't think it's with him permanently.''
 
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