Gore has tough job - NYTimes

madison46

New member
I'm happy with the outcome so far, but Gore is tough and the 'bounce' will slowly disapte, in addition, Gore will get a bounce. Those combine to making this a close race again after the Demo Convention.

Tough road to continue on for a Bush Win. Please volunteer or stop belly aching.

Gore Faces Tough Road Ahead

August 4, 2000
By The Associated Press

PHILADELPHIA (AP) -- Al Gore heads soon to the Democratic
National Convention in Los Angeles with a heavy workload.

The likely Democratic nominee must solidify his base of party
voters, win over independents and lock down the elusive support of
women after Republican presidential nominee George W. Bush got a
healthy boost from his just-concluded convention.

Leaving Philadelphia, Bush had a double-digit lead in a tracking
poll taken during the convention. He moved ahead among independents
and women and held more than a 25-point lead among men.

For months, Democrats repeated the mantra that it's too early to
worry about polls and voters aren't yet paying attention. But with
the Democratic National Convention set to begin in a little over a
week, those days are just about over.

``Campaigns use issues, positions, principles and the personality
of the candidate to add brushstrokes to the picture by Election
Day,'' said Republican pollster Ed Goeas. ``The picture is
beginning to be painted.''

Republicans in Philadelphia went to great lengths to portray
their party as more diverse, more tolerant and more positive than
in past years.

Polls indicate that stuck a positive chord with the electorate.


By Friday, Bush's lead over Gore had reached 19 points -- 50
percent to 31 percent -- in a bipartisan Voter.com-Battleground
tracking poll of 1,000 likely voters taken Wednesday and Thursday.
The poll has a 3 percentage point error margin. Bush had a 20-point
lead among independents and a slight lead among women, two groups
where he and Gore previously had been tied. Bush led in every
region of the country.

Goeas said the 11-point bounce during the convention is
comparable to Ronald Reagan's bounce in 1980, and probably would
grow higher if the poll included those who saw Bush's speech.
Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, Goeas' partner in the poll, said
Democrats are slightly ahead of Republicans when people were asked
which party they would support in Congress.

Democrats were incensed by the GOP's efforts to change its image
by asking blacks, Hispanics and a gay congressman, among other
minorities, to address the convention.

``They're using these people as props,'' said Joe Andrew,
chairman of the Democratic National Committee. ``We don't have to
go out and find African-American and Hispanic kids to put on our
stage.''

Bush campaign spokesman Dan Bartlett responded: ``These attacks
are indicative of the fact that they have legitimate concerns that
Governor Bush is making inroads with new constituencies.''

Democrats are working to change the dynamics of the race, which
has wavered all year between a Bush advantage and a close contest.
When the race is close, Gore has led among women, but that lead has
been elusive.

On Tuesday, Gore chooses a running mate and the two will hit the
campaign trail for the rest of the week. En route to Los Angeles,
they will stop in several battleground states.

Meanwhile, surrogates in 17 battleground states will contrast
Democratic policies and accomplishments with the Republican
arguments and their record.

At the Democratic convention Aug. 14-17, President Clinton and
wife Hillary will speak, along with Caroline Kennedy, Bill Bradley,
Ted Kennedy and Jesse Jackson. The full schedule has not been
announced.

``Our convention will show (the public) that Al Gore is on their
side, ready to be president and he's got the right ideas to build
on our progress,'' said Doug Hattaway, a Gore campaign spokesman.
Polls suggest Democrats have the advantage on the issues of health
care, the environment and Social Security, but he and Bush are
close on the economy and education.

The effort to whittle away at the Bush lead in the polls could be
tricky for Democrats, and especially Gore. Polls suggest many
people have grown weary of partisan squabbling in the wake of the
impeachment fight.

``About 40 percent of Americans don't like Gore,'' said Merle
Black, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta. ``The
more he makes these attacks, the higher his negatives could go.''

Although Republicans got an advantage from holding their
convention first, there are advantages for Gore, he said.

``By going second, Gore has an opportunity to recover,'' Black
said. ``He's got to unify the Democrats, while reaching out to
independents. This will be a test of leadership.''



The New York Times on the Web
 
<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by madison46:
At the Democratic convention Aug. 14-17, President Clinton and wife Hillary will speak, along with Caroline Kennedy, Bill Bradley, Ted Kennedy and Jesse Jackson. The full schedule has not been announced.[/quote]

Jesus, what a lineup! With friends like this who needs enemies?

Skyhawk
 
That's what I think, but Willie may be early in the Convention and forgotten by the end (thus is the American media way). Let me say that if Gore pick Gephart, Liberman, Harkin, he will be fitting in with Clinton, Jackson etc...

Please let it be Gephart.

madison

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Skyhawk:
Jesus, what a lineup! With friends like this who needs enemies?

Skyhawk
[/quote]
 
"By Friday, Bush's lead over Gore had reached 19 points -- 50 percent to 31 percent --"

Sine Bush has already been at or near 50%, that looks to me that Bush caused some of those leaning toward Gore to move to the undecided group. My bet is most of them will go back to Gore once the Demo pep-talk is over. But that still leaves the lead Bush had before the convention.
 
Doubt it will be Gephart. Gephart is hoping to be Speaker of the House (God forbid.)

My guess is that Gore chooses Kerry, Lieberman or (forgot the name - Edwards?).

We have a long road to go yet; but I think we can win. Voter participation is projected around 40% right now - that means every gun owner you can get off the couch and down to the polls will see his influence magnified!

Remember - polls don't mean a thing if people don't get out and vote.
 
Bart,
In the thread else where on this board, I picked the 2 of your 3, but in the same order.

Kerry
Harkin
Edwards (NC)

Note: The Gore announcement will take place at a Tenn. War memorial - hummmm

Anyway, I think it will be leaked by Sat/Sun - if problems, they can back out.

Hope it's Harkin or Lieberman - It would be a liberal show all the way.

madison46 (rolltr)

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Bartholomew Roberts:
Doubt it will be Gephart. Gephart is hoping to be Speaker of the House (God forbid.)

My guess is that Gore chooses Kerry, Lieberman or (forgot the name - Edwards?).

We have a long road to go yet; but I think we can win. Voter participation is projected around 40% right now - that means every gun owner you can get off the couch and down to the polls will see his influence magnified!

Remember - polls don't mean a thing if people don't get out and vote.
[/quote]
 
Gentlemen, Edwards is of the same stuff as any of the Clinton followers. A died in the wool hater of the 2nd amendment. I've had lovely "thank you for your concern" letters from him! As for Gore has a tough road..... I think the reality is The spin doctors have a tough road. No matter what they do Al comes out looking out of place and fake. But I am grateful that he invented the internet otherwise I wouldn't be spending all my time reading and writing to this great group of people! Thanks, Al. I will make sure to vote this fall and will make sure I educate anyone around me to the fact that America cannot stand another 4 years of the likes of you!
 
Contender....
I think you give them too much credit. I saw it as "Hey, we own these races, you Republicans go find new ones"

Props....as if the Democrats didn't invent the tactic. Congenital hypocrits

------------------
"Quis custodiet ipsos custodes" RKBA!
 
One of the Talking Heads yesterday, I believe on Fox News, pointed out that parties typically get a 10% bounce after their convention. He said that it appears Bush has gotten a significantly higher bounce, more on the order of 15%. Unless Gore pulls a miracle out of his hat, Bush will still be leading in the polls by Labor Day and only once before in history has the candidate leading at Labor Day lost a presidential election (when Dewey lost to Truman in, I believe, 1942).

I think Bush's bounce is largely due to the many idependents who were unsure of his abilities. Was he just a puppet, or did he have something significant to contribute? His appearance at the convention made Bush look presidential and helped dispell the fears. If nothing else, Bush showed that he knew to surround himself with the very best people he could find.

Gore's Hell is that to knock Bush off his perch, he's going to have to go negative in a big way and the voters have already shown that they are tired of negative politics. Earlier this year, Gore was going backwards in the polls until he stopped the negative attacks on Bush and that won't be any different this time around.

Where Bush can still stumble is in the upcoming debates. He has to continue to appear presidential and must be very wary of Gore's attempts to trip him up and make him appear foolish or undecided on camera. I assure you, that will be Gore's primary goal.
The Gore campaign is desperate and I expect them to stop at no dirty tricks to try and gain the advantage.

[This message has been edited by proximo (edited August 05, 2000).]
 
Dems will go extremely negative.

'Mean-spirited' democrats.

I love it.

madison

Some negative ads work VERY, VERY well. Don't discount them

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by proximo:
One of the Talking Heads yesterday, I believe on Fox News, pointed out that parties typically get a 10% bounce after their convention. He said that it appears Bush has gotten a significantly higher bounce, more on the order of 15%. Unless Gore pulls a miracle out of his hat, Bush will still be leading in the polls by Labor Day and only once before in history has the candidate leading at Labor Day lost a presidential election (when Dewey lost to Truman in, I believe, 1942).

I think Bush's bounce is largely due to the many idependents who were unsure of his abilities. Was he just a puppet, or did he have something significant to contribute? His appearance at the convention made Bush look presidential and helped dispell the fears. If nothing else, Bush showed that he knew to surround himself with the very best people he could find.

Gore's Hell is that to knock Bush off his perch, he's going to have to go negative in a big way and the voters have already shown that they are tired of negative politics. Earlier this year, Gore was going backwards in the polls until he stopped the negative attacks on Bush and that won't be any different this time around.

Where Bush can still stumble is in the upcoming debates. He has to continue to appear presidential and must be very wary of Gore's attempts to trip him up and make him appear foolish or undecided on camera. I assure you, that will be Gore's primary goal.
The Gore campaign is desperate and I expect them to stop at no dirty tricks to try and gain the advantage.

[This message has been edited by proximo (edited August 05, 2000).]
[/quote]
 
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