I'm happy with the outcome so far, but Gore is tough and the 'bounce' will slowly disapte, in addition, Gore will get a bounce. Those combine to making this a close race again after the Demo Convention.
Tough road to continue on for a Bush Win. Please volunteer or stop belly aching.
Gore Faces Tough Road Ahead
August 4, 2000
By The Associated Press
PHILADELPHIA (AP) -- Al Gore heads soon to the Democratic
National Convention in Los Angeles with a heavy workload.
The likely Democratic nominee must solidify his base of party
voters, win over independents and lock down the elusive support of
women after Republican presidential nominee George W. Bush got a
healthy boost from his just-concluded convention.
Leaving Philadelphia, Bush had a double-digit lead in a tracking
poll taken during the convention. He moved ahead among independents
and women and held more than a 25-point lead among men.
For months, Democrats repeated the mantra that it's too early to
worry about polls and voters aren't yet paying attention. But with
the Democratic National Convention set to begin in a little over a
week, those days are just about over.
``Campaigns use issues, positions, principles and the personality
of the candidate to add brushstrokes to the picture by Election
Day,'' said Republican pollster Ed Goeas. ``The picture is
beginning to be painted.''
Republicans in Philadelphia went to great lengths to portray
their party as more diverse, more tolerant and more positive than
in past years.
Polls indicate that stuck a positive chord with the electorate.
By Friday, Bush's lead over Gore had reached 19 points -- 50
percent to 31 percent -- in a bipartisan Voter.com-Battleground
tracking poll of 1,000 likely voters taken Wednesday and Thursday.
The poll has a 3 percentage point error margin. Bush had a 20-point
lead among independents and a slight lead among women, two groups
where he and Gore previously had been tied. Bush led in every
region of the country.
Goeas said the 11-point bounce during the convention is
comparable to Ronald Reagan's bounce in 1980, and probably would
grow higher if the poll included those who saw Bush's speech.
Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, Goeas' partner in the poll, said
Democrats are slightly ahead of Republicans when people were asked
which party they would support in Congress.
Democrats were incensed by the GOP's efforts to change its image
by asking blacks, Hispanics and a gay congressman, among other
minorities, to address the convention.
``They're using these people as props,'' said Joe Andrew,
chairman of the Democratic National Committee. ``We don't have to
go out and find African-American and Hispanic kids to put on our
stage.''
Bush campaign spokesman Dan Bartlett responded: ``These attacks
are indicative of the fact that they have legitimate concerns that
Governor Bush is making inroads with new constituencies.''
Democrats are working to change the dynamics of the race, which
has wavered all year between a Bush advantage and a close contest.
When the race is close, Gore has led among women, but that lead has
been elusive.
On Tuesday, Gore chooses a running mate and the two will hit the
campaign trail for the rest of the week. En route to Los Angeles,
they will stop in several battleground states.
Meanwhile, surrogates in 17 battleground states will contrast
Democratic policies and accomplishments with the Republican
arguments and their record.
At the Democratic convention Aug. 14-17, President Clinton and
wife Hillary will speak, along with Caroline Kennedy, Bill Bradley,
Ted Kennedy and Jesse Jackson. The full schedule has not been
announced.
``Our convention will show (the public) that Al Gore is on their
side, ready to be president and he's got the right ideas to build
on our progress,'' said Doug Hattaway, a Gore campaign spokesman.
Polls suggest Democrats have the advantage on the issues of health
care, the environment and Social Security, but he and Bush are
close on the economy and education.
The effort to whittle away at the Bush lead in the polls could be
tricky for Democrats, and especially Gore. Polls suggest many
people have grown weary of partisan squabbling in the wake of the
impeachment fight.
``About 40 percent of Americans don't like Gore,'' said Merle
Black, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta. ``The
more he makes these attacks, the higher his negatives could go.''
Although Republicans got an advantage from holding their
convention first, there are advantages for Gore, he said.
``By going second, Gore has an opportunity to recover,'' Black
said. ``He's got to unify the Democrats, while reaching out to
independents. This will be a test of leadership.''
The New York Times on the Web
Tough road to continue on for a Bush Win. Please volunteer or stop belly aching.
Gore Faces Tough Road Ahead
August 4, 2000
By The Associated Press
PHILADELPHIA (AP) -- Al Gore heads soon to the Democratic
National Convention in Los Angeles with a heavy workload.
The likely Democratic nominee must solidify his base of party
voters, win over independents and lock down the elusive support of
women after Republican presidential nominee George W. Bush got a
healthy boost from his just-concluded convention.
Leaving Philadelphia, Bush had a double-digit lead in a tracking
poll taken during the convention. He moved ahead among independents
and women and held more than a 25-point lead among men.
For months, Democrats repeated the mantra that it's too early to
worry about polls and voters aren't yet paying attention. But with
the Democratic National Convention set to begin in a little over a
week, those days are just about over.
``Campaigns use issues, positions, principles and the personality
of the candidate to add brushstrokes to the picture by Election
Day,'' said Republican pollster Ed Goeas. ``The picture is
beginning to be painted.''
Republicans in Philadelphia went to great lengths to portray
their party as more diverse, more tolerant and more positive than
in past years.
Polls indicate that stuck a positive chord with the electorate.
By Friday, Bush's lead over Gore had reached 19 points -- 50
percent to 31 percent -- in a bipartisan Voter.com-Battleground
tracking poll of 1,000 likely voters taken Wednesday and Thursday.
The poll has a 3 percentage point error margin. Bush had a 20-point
lead among independents and a slight lead among women, two groups
where he and Gore previously had been tied. Bush led in every
region of the country.
Goeas said the 11-point bounce during the convention is
comparable to Ronald Reagan's bounce in 1980, and probably would
grow higher if the poll included those who saw Bush's speech.
Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, Goeas' partner in the poll, said
Democrats are slightly ahead of Republicans when people were asked
which party they would support in Congress.
Democrats were incensed by the GOP's efforts to change its image
by asking blacks, Hispanics and a gay congressman, among other
minorities, to address the convention.
``They're using these people as props,'' said Joe Andrew,
chairman of the Democratic National Committee. ``We don't have to
go out and find African-American and Hispanic kids to put on our
stage.''
Bush campaign spokesman Dan Bartlett responded: ``These attacks
are indicative of the fact that they have legitimate concerns that
Governor Bush is making inroads with new constituencies.''
Democrats are working to change the dynamics of the race, which
has wavered all year between a Bush advantage and a close contest.
When the race is close, Gore has led among women, but that lead has
been elusive.
On Tuesday, Gore chooses a running mate and the two will hit the
campaign trail for the rest of the week. En route to Los Angeles,
they will stop in several battleground states.
Meanwhile, surrogates in 17 battleground states will contrast
Democratic policies and accomplishments with the Republican
arguments and their record.
At the Democratic convention Aug. 14-17, President Clinton and
wife Hillary will speak, along with Caroline Kennedy, Bill Bradley,
Ted Kennedy and Jesse Jackson. The full schedule has not been
announced.
``Our convention will show (the public) that Al Gore is on their
side, ready to be president and he's got the right ideas to build
on our progress,'' said Doug Hattaway, a Gore campaign spokesman.
Polls suggest Democrats have the advantage on the issues of health
care, the environment and Social Security, but he and Bush are
close on the economy and education.
The effort to whittle away at the Bush lead in the polls could be
tricky for Democrats, and especially Gore. Polls suggest many
people have grown weary of partisan squabbling in the wake of the
impeachment fight.
``About 40 percent of Americans don't like Gore,'' said Merle
Black, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta. ``The
more he makes these attacks, the higher his negatives could go.''
Although Republicans got an advantage from holding their
convention first, there are advantages for Gore, he said.
``By going second, Gore has an opportunity to recover,'' Black
said. ``He's got to unify the Democrats, while reaching out to
independents. This will be a test of leadership.''
The New York Times on the Web