http://www.nytimes.com/library/politics/camp/051300wh-gore-guns.html
In Hunter Havens, Democrats Are Cool to Gore
By JAMES DAO
ROAD TO THE WHITE HOUSE
MBRIDGE, Pa., May 11 -- It has become conventional wisdom among Democratic strategists that the Million Mom March for gun control on Sunday will be good for Vice President Al Gore in his quest for the presidency. But the conventional wisdom does not apply here in Beaver County.
Nestled in the shadows of shuttered steel mills 20 miles northwest of Pittsburgh, Beaver County has been a Democratic bastion since the New Deal. It is also a haven for hunters, Second Amendment devotees and the National Rifle Association, Mr. Gore's sworn enemy.
So when Mr. Gore stumps for gun control, as he often does these days, many Democrats here, particularly men, squirm. To them, the issue is a divisive headache that drives their friends and neighbors into the arms of Mr. Gore's presumed Republican rival, Gov. George W. Bush of Texas, a frequent critic of gun control.
"I get so frustrated when I hear Al Gore talk about gun control," said Jim Rooker, a 57-year-old former pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates who now owns a tavern in Beaver County and is active in the local Democratic Party. "There isn't any question that he'll lose votes here if he keeps it up."
For Mr. Gore, winning this fall will almost certainly require keeping places like Beaver County solidly in the Democratic column, political analysts say. But therein lies the risk of gun control: While the issue plays well among suburban women, it infuriates many men in places like western Pennsylvania. Mr. Gore already trails Mr. Bush among men by double-digit margins, recent polls show.
"To gun owners, he's already viewed as an extremist," said Representative Bart Stupak, a Democrat from Michigan who, for most of his five terms, has been an opponent of gun control. "If he wants to talk about safety measures, that's O.K. People see that as reasonable. If you talk about further layers, he'll lose voters in a minute. They're not comfortable with his position as it is."
But to the chagrin of Democrats like Mr. Stupak, Mr. Gore supports gun control proposals that go well beyond simple safety measures like trigger locks. He would require states to create photo licenses for buyers of new handguns. He would ban the cheap handguns known as Saturday Night Specials and limit handgun purchases to one a month. He supports lawsuits by counties and cities against gun makers. And he accuses Mr. Bush of being a pawn of the rifle association.
Mr. Bush, by contrast, contends that the federal government should enforce existing gun laws rather than enact new ones, a basic tenet of the N.R.A. As governor, he signed legislation that allows people to carry concealed weapons into churches, among other places, and that prohibits municipalities from directly suing gun makers. Recently, he suggested that he would also sign anti-lawsuit legislation as president.
[Mr. Bush announced yesterday that he would spend $1 million a year to provide free trigger locks for handgun owners in Texas and would push for a similar national initiative.]
"Bush is in the safety zone on guns for Pennsylvania voters," said G. Terry Madonna, director of the Keystone Poll at Millersville University in Pennsylvania. "I think supporting lawsuits against manufacturers is problematic for Gore in Pennsylvania because it raises the prospect that guns could be outlawed."
What further complicates the issue for Mr. Gore is that there are many places like Beaver County in the necklace of northern states that Democratic strategists say he needs to win, including Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois and Michigan. In recent visits to those states, he has tended to avoid mentioning his positions on gun control.
Mr. Gore and Bill Clinton won those states in 1992, when the economy dwarfed all other issues, and in 1996, when the race was a rout. But this year's contest is expected to be close, meaning gun control could emerge as a significant factor. And history has shown the N.R.A. to be better at mobilizing its voters than gun control proponents have been at energizing theirs.
Unlike Mr. Gore, Mr. Bush has said little on gun control except when pressed by reporters, apparently concerned that the issue poses risks for him, as well. Clearly, gun control is widely supported not only in Democratic cities but also many Republican suburbs. And it is popular in California, the largest state, and New Jersey, an important swing state.
But the greatest risk for Mr. Bush on gun control is among women. Most polls show that women, by significantly higher margins than men, favor gun control and distrust the N.R.A. The higher the income and education level, the more supportive women are of restrictions on guns.
"The arithmetic on guns works out in Gore's favor," says Geoffrey Garin, a Democratic pollster. "The pro-gun vote is primarily made up of white men who vote Republican on a pretty routine basis. The voters who are more in play tend to be suburban women who vote Republican in some cases, but who get driven away from Republican candidates on the basis of gun control."
Even in western Pennsylvania, there are clear sex differences on gun control. In recent interviews in the Pittsburgh area, more women than men said they supported gun control and had low opinions of the N.R.A. Those sex differences cut across party lines.
Sandra Miller describes herself as a lapsed Democrat who votes increasingly Republican. A resident of one of Pittsburgh's affluent suburbs, Ms. Miller dislikes Mr. Gore, calling him "a real politician who turns whichever way the wind blows."
But Ms. Miller, 56, who grew up in a Texas household surrounded by hunting rifles, thinks it is time to put tough restrictions on gun owners. "I don't want to take anyone's gun away, but that Second Amendment was written a long time ago," she said. The N.R.A., she added, "scares me."
"They are too powerful," she said. Asked if she might vote against a politician, including Mr. Bush, based solely on his gun control record, she said, "Yes."
It is because of women like Sandra Miller that Democratic strategists think the Million Mom March will be so useful for Mr. Gore. By emphasizing motherhood, the event will unite women from both parties behind the Democratic agenda without evoking partisan politics, the strategists say.
More important, gun control advocates say, the march will demonstrate that supporters of gun restrictions are becoming as powerful a political movement as the opponents. Mass shootings at Columbine and elsewhere, including two in the Pittsburgh area in the last two months, have changed that dynamic, gun control advocates assert.
"There are far more people who care about the issue today," said Joe Sudbay, political director for Handgun Control Inc., which advocates stronger regulations on firearms. "For the first time, people on our side are making it a voting issue."
The elections will test that theory, and western Pennsylvania is likely to be one of the proving grounds.
In rural Beaver County, even supporters of gun control speak reverently about Second Amendment protections of the right to bear arms. Representative Ron Klink, a four-term Pennsylvania Democrat who is running for Senate this year, has been consistently anti-gun control in Congress. State Representative Terry Van Horne, the Democrat who wants to replace him, has endorsed only modest gun-control measures, like mandatory trigger locks.
But even that position has caused Mr. Van Horne's Republican opponent, State Senator Melissa Hart, to assert that he is "out of the mainstream" on guns. Ms. Hart has been endorsed by the N.R.A., which views the district as an important opportunity to protect the Republicans' slim majority in the House.
"Gun rights and the Second Amendment are swing issues for voters in western Pennsylvania," said John Lee, director of legislative affairs for the Pennsylvania Rifle and Pistol Association, the N.R.A.'s state affiliate. "We're more 'no compromise' here."
There are, of course, some Democrats in Beaver County who support Mr. Gore's gun control positions and do not worry that the issue will drag him down. "The big issues are Medicare and Social Security," said Robert Standish, 61, a debt consultant and local Democratic activist.
Indeed, chances are good that Mr. Gore will carry Beaver County. But the question is whether he can win it with enough votes to offset Mr. Bush's gains in less Democratic districts. Gun control is likely to be a factor in determining that level of enthusiasm.
Take Dominic DeMarco, a 65-year-old retiree from the Beaver Falls area. Mr. DeMarco is a fan of President Clinton, and thinks Mr. Gore should be given the chance to continue current policies. But do not get him started on gun control.
"The government is to blame for not keeping criminals in prison," he says angrily. "The last thing we need are more gun control laws."
In Hunter Havens, Democrats Are Cool to Gore
By JAMES DAO
ROAD TO THE WHITE HOUSE
MBRIDGE, Pa., May 11 -- It has become conventional wisdom among Democratic strategists that the Million Mom March for gun control on Sunday will be good for Vice President Al Gore in his quest for the presidency. But the conventional wisdom does not apply here in Beaver County.
Nestled in the shadows of shuttered steel mills 20 miles northwest of Pittsburgh, Beaver County has been a Democratic bastion since the New Deal. It is also a haven for hunters, Second Amendment devotees and the National Rifle Association, Mr. Gore's sworn enemy.
So when Mr. Gore stumps for gun control, as he often does these days, many Democrats here, particularly men, squirm. To them, the issue is a divisive headache that drives their friends and neighbors into the arms of Mr. Gore's presumed Republican rival, Gov. George W. Bush of Texas, a frequent critic of gun control.
"I get so frustrated when I hear Al Gore talk about gun control," said Jim Rooker, a 57-year-old former pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates who now owns a tavern in Beaver County and is active in the local Democratic Party. "There isn't any question that he'll lose votes here if he keeps it up."
For Mr. Gore, winning this fall will almost certainly require keeping places like Beaver County solidly in the Democratic column, political analysts say. But therein lies the risk of gun control: While the issue plays well among suburban women, it infuriates many men in places like western Pennsylvania. Mr. Gore already trails Mr. Bush among men by double-digit margins, recent polls show.
"To gun owners, he's already viewed as an extremist," said Representative Bart Stupak, a Democrat from Michigan who, for most of his five terms, has been an opponent of gun control. "If he wants to talk about safety measures, that's O.K. People see that as reasonable. If you talk about further layers, he'll lose voters in a minute. They're not comfortable with his position as it is."
But to the chagrin of Democrats like Mr. Stupak, Mr. Gore supports gun control proposals that go well beyond simple safety measures like trigger locks. He would require states to create photo licenses for buyers of new handguns. He would ban the cheap handguns known as Saturday Night Specials and limit handgun purchases to one a month. He supports lawsuits by counties and cities against gun makers. And he accuses Mr. Bush of being a pawn of the rifle association.
Mr. Bush, by contrast, contends that the federal government should enforce existing gun laws rather than enact new ones, a basic tenet of the N.R.A. As governor, he signed legislation that allows people to carry concealed weapons into churches, among other places, and that prohibits municipalities from directly suing gun makers. Recently, he suggested that he would also sign anti-lawsuit legislation as president.
[Mr. Bush announced yesterday that he would spend $1 million a year to provide free trigger locks for handgun owners in Texas and would push for a similar national initiative.]
"Bush is in the safety zone on guns for Pennsylvania voters," said G. Terry Madonna, director of the Keystone Poll at Millersville University in Pennsylvania. "I think supporting lawsuits against manufacturers is problematic for Gore in Pennsylvania because it raises the prospect that guns could be outlawed."
What further complicates the issue for Mr. Gore is that there are many places like Beaver County in the necklace of northern states that Democratic strategists say he needs to win, including Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois and Michigan. In recent visits to those states, he has tended to avoid mentioning his positions on gun control.
Mr. Gore and Bill Clinton won those states in 1992, when the economy dwarfed all other issues, and in 1996, when the race was a rout. But this year's contest is expected to be close, meaning gun control could emerge as a significant factor. And history has shown the N.R.A. to be better at mobilizing its voters than gun control proponents have been at energizing theirs.
Unlike Mr. Gore, Mr. Bush has said little on gun control except when pressed by reporters, apparently concerned that the issue poses risks for him, as well. Clearly, gun control is widely supported not only in Democratic cities but also many Republican suburbs. And it is popular in California, the largest state, and New Jersey, an important swing state.
But the greatest risk for Mr. Bush on gun control is among women. Most polls show that women, by significantly higher margins than men, favor gun control and distrust the N.R.A. The higher the income and education level, the more supportive women are of restrictions on guns.
"The arithmetic on guns works out in Gore's favor," says Geoffrey Garin, a Democratic pollster. "The pro-gun vote is primarily made up of white men who vote Republican on a pretty routine basis. The voters who are more in play tend to be suburban women who vote Republican in some cases, but who get driven away from Republican candidates on the basis of gun control."
Even in western Pennsylvania, there are clear sex differences on gun control. In recent interviews in the Pittsburgh area, more women than men said they supported gun control and had low opinions of the N.R.A. Those sex differences cut across party lines.
Sandra Miller describes herself as a lapsed Democrat who votes increasingly Republican. A resident of one of Pittsburgh's affluent suburbs, Ms. Miller dislikes Mr. Gore, calling him "a real politician who turns whichever way the wind blows."
But Ms. Miller, 56, who grew up in a Texas household surrounded by hunting rifles, thinks it is time to put tough restrictions on gun owners. "I don't want to take anyone's gun away, but that Second Amendment was written a long time ago," she said. The N.R.A., she added, "scares me."
"They are too powerful," she said. Asked if she might vote against a politician, including Mr. Bush, based solely on his gun control record, she said, "Yes."
It is because of women like Sandra Miller that Democratic strategists think the Million Mom March will be so useful for Mr. Gore. By emphasizing motherhood, the event will unite women from both parties behind the Democratic agenda without evoking partisan politics, the strategists say.
More important, gun control advocates say, the march will demonstrate that supporters of gun restrictions are becoming as powerful a political movement as the opponents. Mass shootings at Columbine and elsewhere, including two in the Pittsburgh area in the last two months, have changed that dynamic, gun control advocates assert.
"There are far more people who care about the issue today," said Joe Sudbay, political director for Handgun Control Inc., which advocates stronger regulations on firearms. "For the first time, people on our side are making it a voting issue."
The elections will test that theory, and western Pennsylvania is likely to be one of the proving grounds.
In rural Beaver County, even supporters of gun control speak reverently about Second Amendment protections of the right to bear arms. Representative Ron Klink, a four-term Pennsylvania Democrat who is running for Senate this year, has been consistently anti-gun control in Congress. State Representative Terry Van Horne, the Democrat who wants to replace him, has endorsed only modest gun-control measures, like mandatory trigger locks.
But even that position has caused Mr. Van Horne's Republican opponent, State Senator Melissa Hart, to assert that he is "out of the mainstream" on guns. Ms. Hart has been endorsed by the N.R.A., which views the district as an important opportunity to protect the Republicans' slim majority in the House.
"Gun rights and the Second Amendment are swing issues for voters in western Pennsylvania," said John Lee, director of legislative affairs for the Pennsylvania Rifle and Pistol Association, the N.R.A.'s state affiliate. "We're more 'no compromise' here."
There are, of course, some Democrats in Beaver County who support Mr. Gore's gun control positions and do not worry that the issue will drag him down. "The big issues are Medicare and Social Security," said Robert Standish, 61, a debt consultant and local Democratic activist.
Indeed, chances are good that Mr. Gore will carry Beaver County. But the question is whether he can win it with enough votes to offset Mr. Bush's gains in less Democratic districts. Gun control is likely to be a factor in determining that level of enthusiasm.
Take Dominic DeMarco, a 65-year-old retiree from the Beaver Falls area. Mr. DeMarco is a fan of President Clinton, and thinks Mr. Gore should be given the chance to continue current policies. But do not get him started on gun control.
"The government is to blame for not keeping criminals in prison," he says angrily. "The last thing we need are more gun control laws."
can offset that if we get out and vote.