I'd go with the G23 out of your options.
I like that the mid-sized guns like that are a good size for both carry and the range. While it is possible the full sized gun will be a better range gun, it is also fully possible that the mid-sized gun will be a great range gun. From most of what I read the G23 is a terrific gun at the range, large enough to be accurate, heavy enough to be comfortable to shoot. If it is a more than sufficient size to be a good range gun in the caliber it is chambered for, the only reason I see to go bigger is for a larger capacity gun. Since you'll already be using neutered mags in the G23, I see no reason to go bigger.
As for carry, I wouldn't be so quick to assume CCW will never happen.
I live in MD, I understand an anti-gun state. The only way MD (or CA) ever goes shall-issue is if the courts order it. But, look at IL, they were never going to go shall-issue, and then the courts ordered it. Eventually, I believe there will be a case through the courts that make our states go shall-issue, it definitely seems to be the way things are going. Maybe something will hit the Supreme Court that gets us nation-wide shall issue and maybe even reciprocity.
You also may not have to wait for that. You may not see yourself moving anytime soon. However, in your case you wouldn't even have to move to another state to be able to get a permit. Many CA counties are nearly shall-issue. You never know what the future holds. Just when I was so sure I was not leaving MD any time soon that I was shopping houses, it looks like I'll probably be moving to PA (a shall-issue state) next spring/summer.
I get not basing your decision upon the "maybe" of CCW, but don't base it solely upon your current situation either as that may change.