electoral college: rural vs. urban vs. suburban

folkbabe

New member
So, I'm a brown-noser and ran some numbers on the request of a teacher. Some of the results might be of interest. If you have any criticisms of my procedure feel free to give it. :)

According to the U.S. census, 80.2% of the population lives in metropolitian regions and 19.8% lives in rural regions. Fully 50% of the population lives in "non center-city metropolitian areas"(from here on 'suburbia'). 30.2% of the population lives in center-city areas.

There are 13 states (26%) with rural majorities, a slightly disproportionately high number. These thirteen states control 59 electoral college votes. That's 21.9% of the number needed to win the presidency, or 11% of the total (a low number compared to the rural population).

There are 37 states (74%) with metropolitian area majorities. They have 429 electoral votes, or 80% of the total.

Of the states with metropolitian majorities, 18 have suburban majorities. Combined, these have 257 electoral votes, 47.7% of the total. That's fairly proportionate to the gross suburban population (50%).

There is only one state, plus the district of columbia, with a center-city majority. That's Arizona. This state plus DC have 11 electoral college votes, or only 2% of the total. This is vastly below the general population percentage, which is 30.2%.

The difference between the number of majority-metro states and the last two numbers is that there are many states where neither urban or suburban areas have a majority, but together they form a metro-area majority.

Presumbaly, there would sometimes be coalitions between various types of voters. All-in-all, it seems _suburban voters_ are helped by the electoral college, rural voters are about steady, and urban voters are hurt.

Now, this analysis is based on the assumption that having a controlling majority in a state gets attention paid to you. I'm not sure I buy this. If it's true, however, then the perpetual under-attention to urban areas becomes a bit clearer. It doesn't, however, imply that disproportionate attention would be paid to rural areas (something I was wrong on).

[editted because of major addition error the first time]

[This message has been edited by folkbabe (edited November 12, 2000).]
 
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