Once a confiscatory tax on ammunition is imposed, I would expect an initial jump in firearms sales in a sort of "what's next" reaction. There are, oddly but undoubtedly, still some people more or less on the fence who don't really believe any of their gun rights are threatened just yet. Once a big tax on ammunition is imposed, more than likely a good number of those will come to the realization that their last opportunity to purchase a handgun which might be threatened by future legislation would be slipping away and make that purchase. When demand goes up and supply doesn't, well that just leaves price.