After four years of enjoying private life, former Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani is taking several steps that could lay the groundwork for a presidential bid, strengthening alliances with Republicans nationwide and especially with conservative leaders of the party.
Mr. Giuliani's advisers say he will decide around the end of the year whether to seek the Republican nomination for president in 2008.
It is a decision that will not be made easily: Mr. Giuliani believes that his support for abortion rights, gay rights and gun control would make winning the nomination difficult, according to several friends and former City Hall aides. Some of those people, who were granted anonymity to describe conversations with the former mayor, say they have told him not to give up his comfortable new way of life for a campaign that might end in failure.
Yet Mr. Giuliani remains popular across the Republican spectrum because of his leadership during 9/11 — a role that many Americans were reminded of yesterday when he testified at the death penalty trial of Zacarias Moussaoui, the only person to be tried in an American courtroom in connection with the attacks of Sept. 11. [Page A18.]
Mr. Giuliani's advisers are only now starting to talk openly about the outlines of a possible national bid, but they say he could enter the race at the start of 2007, or even later, and still assemble a team and raise tens of millions of dollars in a relatively short time.
Mr. Giuliani has been amassing political chits by raising money for candidates in politically important states, like California, Iowa, Michigan and New Jersey. He is buddying up to conservatives in tough re-election fights, like Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania; the two men are scheduled to attend a fund-raising event and campaign together in two weeks. Instead of raising money for himself, Mr. Giuliani is exerting his political muscle to help Republicans keep control of Congress this year, headlining a major fund-raising affair for Senate candidates in May.
"A lot of the events we've done have really laid the groundwork to go, if we need to, to raise money nationally," said Anthony V. Carbonetti, Mr. Giuliani's political point man, who is already planning campaign stops for July and August. "We really have a road map."
At the same time, Mr. Giuliani is trying to deal with his liberal social views that are abhorrent to many Republican voters who wield great influence in the nominating primaries.
Changing his positions would be craven, his advisers said; what Mr. Giuliani can do is underscore that he is a conservative in many ways, and a loyal party member, too.
At a time when President Bush's approval ratings are down sharply, Mr. Giuliani is strongly defending the president's leadership and the White House's positions on Iraq and immigration. Mr. Carbonetti speaks at least once a month with Karl Rove, Mr. Bush's senior adviser, and roughly every other week with Ken Mehlman, the chairman of the Republican National Committee.
Mr. Giuliani is also branching out beyond his expertise as an urban leader. Recently, for example, he joined a new independent commission on Iraq, an affiliation that is expected to take him there for the first time, and he spoke before a conference of evangelical Christians, a demographic group with whom in one poll he appeared to be popular.
Some of his advisers say they hope, too, that if Mr. Giuliani helps conservatives like Mr. Santorum win re-election, they will help him by being emissaries to the right if he runs for president.
Even so, many political analysts believe that Mr. Giuliani cannot win the nod of his party with its current rightward tilt — a point that some friends and former aides say is widely discussed and understood in Giuliani circles.
"Rudy knows that his views on the social issues — abortion, gun control — are one reason not to run," said one friend of Mr. Giuliani's, who, like others, would discuss their conversations only on the condition of anonymity. "I told him that the nomination would be very hard to win. He knows that. But if he doesn't run, a lot of his friends will tell you, it's because he's having too much fun in his life right now."
A former top aide at City Hall, who is in touch with the former mayor but is not part of the current inner circle, said there was "a natural tension" in Mr. Giuliani's mind between running for president and building the consulting, finance and law practices that help make up a growing business empire.
"He never had money, he never thought he had money, and now he is making more money on a weekly basis than his father ever dreamed of," the former aide said. "If he checks out and decides to run for president, everything could start to fall apart."
Merryl H. Tisch, a prominent philanthropist and Giuliani enthusiast, said that she believed the former mayor missed being a public leader.
"When I saw him a couple of weeks ago he looked fit, he looked happy, he was cagey about his plans, and he was very much enjoying the chatter about himself as a national candidate," she said, adding that the buzz was good for business.
"I think there are people who have been with him for years who are eager for him to get back in the game, and defining a national agenda is very much in keeping with who he is," she added. "But this is going to be all his decision."
Another consideration may be the harsh scrutiny and news coverage that Mr. Giuliani saw his friend and former police commissioner, Bernard B. Kerik, undergo. Mr. Giuliani championed Mr. Kerik's nomination to be Homeland Security chief in 2004, but it collapsed when details about his past emerged. Mr. Giuliani's own complicated history, from reports of organized crime connections in his family to his bellicose conduct in office, would receive new attention; a new, unflattering political documentary, "Giuliani Time," is to be released commercially in New York next month, and at least one forthcoming book is investigating Mr. Giuliani's handling of 9/11.
"After seeing what Kerik went through, and the fact that Rudy should have known about Kerik's problems, it is surely a signal to Rudy that a presidential run will be very difficult," said Henry Stern, the city parks commissioner under Mr. Giuliani and the head of the New York State Liberal Party.
Sunny Mindel, Mr. Giuliani's spokeswoman, said media scrutiny would not deter him from running.
"Anybody who runs for president knows and understands that if they make that decision, the clock in terms of the media goes back to square one," Ms. Mindel said.
Asked why Mr. Giuliani, now 61 and out of office, would put himself in a position to have to answer questions about his two failed marriages or the mob ties in his family, Ms. Mindel countered: "Does the public have the patience to even go through that again?"
Mr. Carbonetti, who served as Mr. Giuliani's chief of staff in City Hall, added that Mr. Giuliani would seek a measure of privacy, as he had in the past. "He would say that's part of his private life," Mr. Carbonetti said.
Officially, Mr. Giuliani is focused on the midterm elections: Mr. Carbonetti said he had stacks of phone messages and mail from campaigns and operatives asking for Mr. Giuliani to headline a fund-raiser, film a commercial, write a letter or go out to campaign. Asked for the number of requests, Ms. Mindel said, "We don't have that many fingers and toes."
Unofficially, of course, Mr. Carbonetti recognizes that the politicking in 2006 could easily become prologue for 2008. A founding partner and managing director at Giuliani Partners, a consulting and financial services firm, Mr. Carbonetti said his job was to present Mr. Giuliani with every option should he decide to run. These options flow partly from the chits and pledges of help and support that come as Mr. Giuliani helps fellow Republicans.
Mr. Giuliani's plans include holding a cocktail party in New York City this month for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger of California and traveling to Iowa — which holds the first caucuses of the nominating season in 2008 — to campaign with Representative Jim Nussle, a candidate for governor, and spend time getting to know state party power brokers.
"The mayor sees them as helping keep our majority, and, of course, this is how you build relationships," Mr. Carbonetti said. "It's how you go out and learn about the issues in the rest of the country. Every time you touch down in another state, you have a brand-new set of issues that you didn't know about yesterday."
Most members of Mr. Giuliani's circle express optimism that the political landscape in 2008 will be hospitable to a candidate with Mr. Giuliani's background and expertise. Significantly, several friends say, Mr. Giuliani's wife, Judith Nathan, has made clear that she strongly supports the idea of his running for president.
"If the issues in 2008 are the war on terror and leadership, Rudy scores a 10," said Vincent A. LaPadula, who was an official in the Giuliani and Bloomberg administrations and is now an investment banker. "The only other person in that class is Senator McCain." Senator John McCain of Arizona is considering seeking the Republican presidential nomination in 2008.
Because Mr. Giuliani is out of office, however, he lacks the staff and consultants, the polling data and policy operations, or the financial war chest of many prospective presidential candidates. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Democrat of New York, has $17 million already for her re-election race this year; Mr. Giuliani is not raising money for himself, advisers say, and his political action committee, Solutions America, has about $300,000 on hand.
Mr. Giuliani's advisers say he will decide around the end of the year whether to seek the Republican nomination for president in 2008.
It is a decision that will not be made easily: Mr. Giuliani believes that his support for abortion rights, gay rights and gun control would make winning the nomination difficult, according to several friends and former City Hall aides. Some of those people, who were granted anonymity to describe conversations with the former mayor, say they have told him not to give up his comfortable new way of life for a campaign that might end in failure.
Yet Mr. Giuliani remains popular across the Republican spectrum because of his leadership during 9/11 — a role that many Americans were reminded of yesterday when he testified at the death penalty trial of Zacarias Moussaoui, the only person to be tried in an American courtroom in connection with the attacks of Sept. 11. [Page A18.]
Mr. Giuliani's advisers are only now starting to talk openly about the outlines of a possible national bid, but they say he could enter the race at the start of 2007, or even later, and still assemble a team and raise tens of millions of dollars in a relatively short time.
Mr. Giuliani has been amassing political chits by raising money for candidates in politically important states, like California, Iowa, Michigan and New Jersey. He is buddying up to conservatives in tough re-election fights, like Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania; the two men are scheduled to attend a fund-raising event and campaign together in two weeks. Instead of raising money for himself, Mr. Giuliani is exerting his political muscle to help Republicans keep control of Congress this year, headlining a major fund-raising affair for Senate candidates in May.
"A lot of the events we've done have really laid the groundwork to go, if we need to, to raise money nationally," said Anthony V. Carbonetti, Mr. Giuliani's political point man, who is already planning campaign stops for July and August. "We really have a road map."
At the same time, Mr. Giuliani is trying to deal with his liberal social views that are abhorrent to many Republican voters who wield great influence in the nominating primaries.
Changing his positions would be craven, his advisers said; what Mr. Giuliani can do is underscore that he is a conservative in many ways, and a loyal party member, too.
At a time when President Bush's approval ratings are down sharply, Mr. Giuliani is strongly defending the president's leadership and the White House's positions on Iraq and immigration. Mr. Carbonetti speaks at least once a month with Karl Rove, Mr. Bush's senior adviser, and roughly every other week with Ken Mehlman, the chairman of the Republican National Committee.
Mr. Giuliani is also branching out beyond his expertise as an urban leader. Recently, for example, he joined a new independent commission on Iraq, an affiliation that is expected to take him there for the first time, and he spoke before a conference of evangelical Christians, a demographic group with whom in one poll he appeared to be popular.
Some of his advisers say they hope, too, that if Mr. Giuliani helps conservatives like Mr. Santorum win re-election, they will help him by being emissaries to the right if he runs for president.
Even so, many political analysts believe that Mr. Giuliani cannot win the nod of his party with its current rightward tilt — a point that some friends and former aides say is widely discussed and understood in Giuliani circles.
"Rudy knows that his views on the social issues — abortion, gun control — are one reason not to run," said one friend of Mr. Giuliani's, who, like others, would discuss their conversations only on the condition of anonymity. "I told him that the nomination would be very hard to win. He knows that. But if he doesn't run, a lot of his friends will tell you, it's because he's having too much fun in his life right now."
A former top aide at City Hall, who is in touch with the former mayor but is not part of the current inner circle, said there was "a natural tension" in Mr. Giuliani's mind between running for president and building the consulting, finance and law practices that help make up a growing business empire.
"He never had money, he never thought he had money, and now he is making more money on a weekly basis than his father ever dreamed of," the former aide said. "If he checks out and decides to run for president, everything could start to fall apart."
Merryl H. Tisch, a prominent philanthropist and Giuliani enthusiast, said that she believed the former mayor missed being a public leader.
"When I saw him a couple of weeks ago he looked fit, he looked happy, he was cagey about his plans, and he was very much enjoying the chatter about himself as a national candidate," she said, adding that the buzz was good for business.
"I think there are people who have been with him for years who are eager for him to get back in the game, and defining a national agenda is very much in keeping with who he is," she added. "But this is going to be all his decision."
Another consideration may be the harsh scrutiny and news coverage that Mr. Giuliani saw his friend and former police commissioner, Bernard B. Kerik, undergo. Mr. Giuliani championed Mr. Kerik's nomination to be Homeland Security chief in 2004, but it collapsed when details about his past emerged. Mr. Giuliani's own complicated history, from reports of organized crime connections in his family to his bellicose conduct in office, would receive new attention; a new, unflattering political documentary, "Giuliani Time," is to be released commercially in New York next month, and at least one forthcoming book is investigating Mr. Giuliani's handling of 9/11.
"After seeing what Kerik went through, and the fact that Rudy should have known about Kerik's problems, it is surely a signal to Rudy that a presidential run will be very difficult," said Henry Stern, the city parks commissioner under Mr. Giuliani and the head of the New York State Liberal Party.
Sunny Mindel, Mr. Giuliani's spokeswoman, said media scrutiny would not deter him from running.
"Anybody who runs for president knows and understands that if they make that decision, the clock in terms of the media goes back to square one," Ms. Mindel said.
Asked why Mr. Giuliani, now 61 and out of office, would put himself in a position to have to answer questions about his two failed marriages or the mob ties in his family, Ms. Mindel countered: "Does the public have the patience to even go through that again?"
Mr. Carbonetti, who served as Mr. Giuliani's chief of staff in City Hall, added that Mr. Giuliani would seek a measure of privacy, as he had in the past. "He would say that's part of his private life," Mr. Carbonetti said.
Officially, Mr. Giuliani is focused on the midterm elections: Mr. Carbonetti said he had stacks of phone messages and mail from campaigns and operatives asking for Mr. Giuliani to headline a fund-raiser, film a commercial, write a letter or go out to campaign. Asked for the number of requests, Ms. Mindel said, "We don't have that many fingers and toes."
Unofficially, of course, Mr. Carbonetti recognizes that the politicking in 2006 could easily become prologue for 2008. A founding partner and managing director at Giuliani Partners, a consulting and financial services firm, Mr. Carbonetti said his job was to present Mr. Giuliani with every option should he decide to run. These options flow partly from the chits and pledges of help and support that come as Mr. Giuliani helps fellow Republicans.
Mr. Giuliani's plans include holding a cocktail party in New York City this month for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger of California and traveling to Iowa — which holds the first caucuses of the nominating season in 2008 — to campaign with Representative Jim Nussle, a candidate for governor, and spend time getting to know state party power brokers.
"The mayor sees them as helping keep our majority, and, of course, this is how you build relationships," Mr. Carbonetti said. "It's how you go out and learn about the issues in the rest of the country. Every time you touch down in another state, you have a brand-new set of issues that you didn't know about yesterday."
Most members of Mr. Giuliani's circle express optimism that the political landscape in 2008 will be hospitable to a candidate with Mr. Giuliani's background and expertise. Significantly, several friends say, Mr. Giuliani's wife, Judith Nathan, has made clear that she strongly supports the idea of his running for president.
"If the issues in 2008 are the war on terror and leadership, Rudy scores a 10," said Vincent A. LaPadula, who was an official in the Giuliani and Bloomberg administrations and is now an investment banker. "The only other person in that class is Senator McCain." Senator John McCain of Arizona is considering seeking the Republican presidential nomination in 2008.
Because Mr. Giuliani is out of office, however, he lacks the staff and consultants, the polling data and policy operations, or the financial war chest of many prospective presidential candidates. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Democrat of New York, has $17 million already for her re-election race this year; Mr. Giuliani is not raising money for himself, advisers say, and his political action committee, Solutions America, has about $300,000 on hand.
