I do not remember how early it all started last time, but i do believe that everything went crazy and dried up shortly before the election, then lasted almost a full year thereafter.
There was an uptick in sales beginning in late September. The day following the election, the wave hit the rocks, and within a week, most retailers were sold out of first-tier product.
(It didn't help at all that manufacturers were utterly unprepared. One example: Glock decided to close their plant for retooling in December 2008. No Glocks for Christmas!)
The supply chain began limping along in February, for guns at least. Then came the ammunition shortage, which lasted through April. People were hoarding the stuff, and manufacturers were running double shifts to keep up. It wasn't enough. Folks started circulating rumors that a tax and/or ban on ammunition was forthcoming.
(For some reason, .380 Auto was the most cherished commodity at this point.)
Then, folks said, "nuts to that: Imma reload my own ammo!" They were disappointed to find that powder and primers were in short supply because the manufacturers were using most of that stuff in-house to make loaded ammo. On top of
that, another fun rumor started making the rounds: the government was going to pass legislation that called for primers and/or powder to
expire at some point.
Yeesh.
You might be asking yourself, "what can I do to stop this?" It's simple. Most of the weird, panicky spikes in demand were due to rumors propagating
from within the gun culture. Bozos at the gun shows were chatting up nonexistent bans in order to drive up prices on their wares, and the internet was screaming apocalypse.
We can ameliorate some of that by being honest, vocal, and reassuring. Or we can sit on our hands and gripe about not being able to get ammunition next February.