Debt, the Greatest Threat to Our Security

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Debt, the Greatest Threat to Our Security
by Rep. Ron Paul
October 26, 2004



Once again the federal government has reached its "debt ceiling," and once again Congress is poised to authorize an increase in government borrowing. Between its ever-growing bureaucracies, expanding entitlements, and overseas military entanglements, the federal government is borrowing roughly $1 billion every day to pay its bills.

Federal law limits the amount of debt the U.S. Treasury may carry, and the current amount – a whopping $7.4 trillion – has been reached once again by a spendthrift federal government. Total federal spending, which now exceeds $2 trillion annually, once took more than 100 years to double. Today it doubles in less than a decade, and the rate is accelerating. When President Reagan entered office in 1981 facing a federal debt of $1 trillion that had piled up over the decades, he declared that figure "incomprehensible." At its present rate of spending, the federal government will soon amass $1 trillion of new debt in just one year.

Government debt carries absolutely no stigma for politicians in Washington. The original idea behind the debt limit law was to shine a light on government spending, by forcing lawmakers to vote publicly for debt increases. Over time, however, the increases have become so commonplace that the media scarcely reports them – and there are no political consequences for those who vote for more red ink. It's far more risky for politicians to vote against special interest spending.

Since 1969, the federal government has spent more that it received in revenues every year. Even supposed single-year surpluses never existed, but were merely an accounting trick based on stealing IOUs from the imaginary Social Security trust fund. Remember that the total federal debt continued to rise rapidly even during the claimed surplus years. Since Congress is incapable of spending only what the Treasury takes in, it must borrow money. Unlike ordinary debts, however, government debts are not repaid by those who spend the money – they're repaid by you and future generations.

The federal government issues U.S. Treasury bonds to finance its deficit spending. The largest holders of those Treasury notes – our largest creditors – are foreign governments and foreign individuals. Asian central banks and investors in particular, especially China, have been happy to buy U.S. dollars over the past decade. But foreign governments will not prop up our spending habits forever. Already, Asian central banks are favoring Euro-denominated assets over U.S. dollars, reflecting their belief that the American economy is headed for trouble. It's akin to a credit-card company cutting off a borrower who has exceeded his credit limit one too many times.

Debt destroys U.S. sovereignty, because the American economy now depends on the actions of foreign governments. While we brag about our role as world superpower in international affairs, we are in truth the world's greatest debtor. Like all debtors, we are not truly free. China and other foreign government creditors could in essence wage economic war against us simply by dumping their huge holdings of U.S. dollars, driving the value of those dollars sharply downward and severely damaging our economy. Desmond Lachman, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute, states that foreign central banks, "Now have considerable ability to disrupt U.S. financial markets by simply deciding to refrain from buying further U.S. government paper." Former Treasury secretary Lawrence Summers warns about "a kind of global balance of financial terror," noting our dependency on "the discretionary acts of what are inevitably political entities in other countries."

Ultimately, debt is slavery. Every dollar the federal government borrows makes us less secure as a nation, by making America beholden to interests outside our borders. So when you hear a politician saying America will do "whatever it takes" to fight terrorism or rebuild Iraq or end poverty or provide health care for all, what they really mean is they are willing to sink America even deeper into debt. We're told that foreign wars and expanded entitlements will somehow make America more secure, but insolvency is hardly the foundation for security. Only when we stop trying to remake the world in our image, and reject the entitlement state at home, will we begin to create a more secure America that is not a financial slave to foreign creditors.
 
When the bubble bursts, it'll be a real bang. But most people have such little understanding of our monetary system they won't even know who to blame.
 
I'm not a rocket scientist, but my guess is that "liberals" will blame "conservatives" and "conservatives" will blame "liberals".

What a bunch of idiots, the planet probably should be nuked and our race exterminated so that we don't contaminate the rest of the universe. :rolleyes:
 
What a bunch of idiots, the planet probably should be nuked and our race exterminated so that we don't contaminate the rest of the universe.
Be very careful my friend....

IMHO - there's 3 basic classes of people:
1.) Haves.
2.) Have-nots.
3.) Never going to haves.

Haves are content to have what they have. Have-nots are content because they can always hope to have.

The never going to haves are the most explosive because they draw from both of the others. When enough nevers get together, then the real "trouble" starts.
 
The never going to haves are the most explosive because they draw from both of the others. When enough nevers get together, then the real "trouble" starts.

You got it and we are setting up now for this by exporting all manufacturing
jobs and importing folks with less then a 5th grade education. It is not a good
thing. :(
 
The federal government issues U.S. Treasury bonds to finance its deficit spending. The largest holders of those Treasury notes – our largest creditors – are foreign governments and foreign individuals.

Actually we are the largest holders of our own debt, US investors corporations, banks, pension funds, and social security, state and local governments, hold more of our debt than foreign creditors do. The net effect of this is that we are in fact expanding the money supply, defacto printing more US currency that is competing for the goods and services we produce. That causes inflation, in theory, but in the last 10 years we have seen little real inflation, because our output of goods and services has increased at the same or greater rate than the growth in the money supply. As a result our standard of living remains the highest in the world.

AS far as the foreigners cutting us off goes, their economy is dependent on our purchasing of goods and services they are selling. Thats why they are extending our credit and buying our T-bills, not out of the goodness of their black hearts. We in turn have goods and services and knowlege and technology that they want and need to improve their standard of living.

Lets imagine that Japan cuts us off and calls in the debt tomorrow:

We still have oil, and coal, and steel, and wood and food we grow here, well now we cant buy Japanese car parts made there, or those nice rifle scopes they sell, They on the other hand need a new source of all the materials they import from us, like wood and oil, and paper, and food. Who do you think will be in worse shape us or them???? Get the picture????
 
AS far as the foreigners cutting us off goes, their economy is dependent on our purchasing of goods and services they are selling.

Actually, the other major trade blocs like the EU and APEC are overtaking us rapidly in global production and trade. As they increasingly trade among themselves in their own regional currency, our markets and goods will further decrease in significance. Countries dumping the U.S. Dollar as their reserve currency will be less affected by what happens to us, and accelerate our decline.

The pre-eminence of the United States as a sort of hinge pin in world trade is fading rapidly, and we are being set up for a fall.
 
Ye of little faith.

The dollar is up 7% over the past 8 years against the usual suspect currencies. Exports are up and looking good. My favorite is IBM unloading their money-losing pc business on the China in order to concentrate on developing and selling new technologies.

I don't depend on credit and would prefer that the country didn't, but I don't see the doom and gloom so many of you do.

John
 
The current national debt is just the camel's nose under the tent. Actual total US Government obligations now and into the future is $40 trillion and climbing.

That is over three times our current, annual Gross Domestic Product and about $100,000.00 of debt of each citizen of the USA.

I see some opportunity for doom and gloom as reflected above.

The above numbers are from David Walker on 02/01/04. Walker is Comptroller of the US. He made those remarks on a Sunday Morning talk show.
 
I don't depend on credit and would prefer that the country didn't, but I don't see the doom and gloom so many of you do.

I'm 60+ years old and the direction or path we take now really disturbs me,
somewhat like building your house on a saltine cracker foundation. We are
living on a paper economy with no strength, sorry my view.
 
My .02

The foreign gov'ts disrupting/destroying us by failing to buy more paper - this is a bit of a red herring, because if they did that suddenly, worse case scenario, we could simply default (or threaten to do so) and tell them to shove it - they'd just not get paid on current notes. Problem with that is, then the domestic investers, pension funds, etc., would also be holding the insolvency bag - not good. Dunno if there's a way for the gummint to make a distinction as to certain bonds/notes it could choose to default on, such as all those held by country X or any company owned or headquarted in company X. There probably is, with appropriate extraordinary legislation. That's a possibility. Then at least the domestic holders could get paid back. In any event, default is generally a bad thing, even if such a distinction is made, because of the ripple effect on the global economy, when and if foreigners get screwed in such a scenario, and the inevitable subsequent plummeting of the dollar's value, due to the default. Not good any way you look at it, and that's where we're heading. Ross Perot tried his damndest to get people to wake up, with a campaign that cost him millions upon millions of his own money. Now he's given up - too old, too tired, too understanding of the fruitlessness of trying to teach basic economics to American politicians and voters. We'll still learn - but it looks like it will be the hard way instead. The fedgov is like the family drunk/drug addict, with is complete lack of fiscal discipline, and the congresscritters are the "enablers" in the family who hide the problem from other family members (the voters), and make excuses for and defend the drunk.

I think Mr. Paul is dead on with respect to this national debt being an extraordinarily big problem. Not because of what foreign gov'ts could do to us, but because WE the american taxpayer are paying all this crap back, with INTEREST that should never have been incurred to begin with. We are saddling our children and grandchildren with enormous debt that they will not even have receieved the fruits of, because when the piper comes calling, the spending will have to be reigned in (when we reach insolvency eventually), and at that point the current jackasses in charge will be worm food, but our children and grandchildren and greatgrandchildren won't - they'll be either (a) saddled with unbelievable debt, or (b) the victims of the default as investors and owners in pension funds, etc, much like Enron pension holders. There is no other alternative.

Interesting to know that even during so-called surplus years during the Clinton admin, there really was no surplus - it was smoke and mirrors - somehow that does not surprise me. At least Shrub and the current Congress are somewhat upfront about their financial anal rapage of our children's future with his needless foreign war and other unbridled pork-barrel spending, by admitting to deficit spending. I believe Mr. Paul speaks the truth, generally.
 
Debt, the Greatest Threat to Our Security

True, or more concisely, the hideous results of carrying massive debt. It will basically cause the world to stop believeing we can pay our bills, which causes a loss of confidence in the dollar.

It might even lead to a loss of value with respect to other currencies.... like the 40% drop the dollar has taken against the EURO in recent months.
 
Johnbt
The dollar is up 7% over the past 8 years against the usual suspect currencies. Exports are up and looking good

Which currencies? As Bounty has noted, the U.S. Dollar has dropped 40% against the euro. Look for other regional currencies to surface; like the "apec". As these trade regions switch exclusively to these currencies, the dollar is doomed.

When the bottom falls out of the dollar, we could "default", but either way we'll see something far worse than the depression of the 1930s.
 
When the bottom falls out of the dollar, we could "default", but either way we'll see something far worse than the depression of the 1930s.

If the bottom falls out of the dollar, imports will be come prohibitively expensive, and we wont be able to afford all that crap from China anymore. French wine and swiss and german handguns will also become more expensive.
That will help Ruger and S&W, police depts wont be able to afford Glocks.
US labor and materials will become relatively much cheaper and suddenly we will be manufacturing everything we used to get from China, and Europe, and Japan here, which will mean more jobs and an improvement in the economy.

At the same time our exports will become cheaper to other countries, and that will also benefit the economy. Since our farm goods are plentiful and will be cheap that will help increase our exports. Oil will be a problem for a while (we will stop exporting Alaskan oil to Japan, and importing so much middle east oil) unless we develop alternative power sources which will become an economically feasable option.

As far as the dollar being devalued goes T- bills are denominated in dollars, and we will be paying the investors back in dollars we dont have to by Euros to do that, its the foreign investors that will loose money relative to their native currencies not us. If anything it will make it easier to pay them back.

We still have lots of land, and timber, and oil, and labor, and scrap metal, so we will just have to start making stuff here again. Because our labor and materials will be cheaper foreign companies will start building factories here.
Its already started with the japanese manufacturing televisions and their automobiles here, because our labor and the value of the dollar is cheaper relative to Japanese labor and the Yen.
 
As the dollar drops

We can look forward to more foreigners coming over here and buying up our country like the Japanese did back in the 80's.
 
Master Blaster,

I am not talking about a mere fluctuation. More like a crash dive. And on the way down, while all those imports are priced too high, we do not have a manufacturing base anymore. Some things yes; but not enough to keep the ship afloat.
 
We did carry a debt for about 60 years-from WWII to the 1990's, and while Japan and other countries were buying up pieces of the US, we shoveled our way out. With the US being the world's largest consumers, if we go, so goes the rest of the world with us. I propose we do what a lot of countries have done to us-some repeatedly. Default on the debt.
 
If and When This Crash Happens & Our Natural Resources Safety Net

Okay, so we have some natural resources like wood and paper, but so does Canada, and Brazil (and most of South America), and various South American countries are forming exclusive trade agreements with Europa, and absolutely excluding the U.S. The Asian markets would just love to see us falter (Communist China is the largest market currently, but soon India will surpass them). Arab countries are hating us more and more every day, and don't forget their WWII alliances with Germany either.

Someone also talked about the money supply. Our dollar was rendered absolutely worthless (it's fiat money), on August 15, 1971, when President Nixon decoupled the U.S. Dollar from the gold standard. Do a Google on both issues, i.e., fiat money, the gold-standard, the research and published works on the matter are voluminous, and many economists warn that the consequences for US are indeed dire. If Americans were to suddenly stop over-spending, our economy would collapse. Okay, prices would come down too, but what about mortgage and personal debt payments? Those would remain fixed; at current levels, while wages would be lowered. Therefore, major loan defaults and resultant losses of property would be pandemic.

Sure we could print more dollars, but then supply and demand would dictate an ever spiraling price. A classical example is post-WW1 Germany, where it literally took bags of money just to buy one loaf of bread.

So let's say these horrible economic predictions occur. Could we recover, maybe, possibly, let's even say yes. Anyone looking forward to being the ones to go through that crisis? Talk to anyone who went through the Great Depression. One other thing, the truly rich of our society; with lots of hard assets, currency, gold and silver bullion, would benefit immensely. Think of all the real estate and businesses that could be snatched up for pennies on the dollar.
 
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One other thing, the truly rich of our society; with lots of hard assets, currency, gold and silver bullion, would benefit immensely. Think of all the real estate and businesses that could be snatched up for pennies on the dollar

Many of those truly rich would be foreign buyers. This how a great deal of our businesses have become foreign owned in the past.
 
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