Crime Rate in Gun Friendly States vs. "The Others"

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protectedbyglock

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I live in Pennsylvania, very close to the Maryland line. I read stories in the newspaper all the time about armed robberies and such going down in a small town about 10 miles from me, in Maryland. I know Maryland is very strict on allowing citizens to carry. In that state, you must have documented threats on file with the police, along with $117 and 2 different fingerprint cards etc etc etc. I know because I wanted to get mine since I live so close to MD, and fortunately/unfortunately I don't have any documented threats on my life, so it's a no-go. It's a big pain in the butt to have to think ahead of time to leave my gun at home or risk getting in big trouble. Living in PA, it's much, much different.
Anyway, my friend and I were talking about this the other day, and how this small town had at least 9 armed robberies (last count) in December alone. I can't even remember the last time we had one in the surrounding PA towns near where I live.
We are thinking it may have something to do with the fact that we carry. Do you guys think there is any truth to this? It just seems odd that there is such a huge difference in robberies between these two areas for being so close to one another. Any thoughts?
 
More Guns Less Crime

... is the title of a book by, I think, John Lott. I've only read chunks of it... had a copy from the library for awhile, but never finished it. The title basically states his conclusion based on massive longitudinal and latitudinal research. Violent crime rates pretty consistently go down when gun laws are relaxed or eliminated. It seems to go up when stricter laws and regulations are put in place. IIRC, he does a good job of teasing out statistically important factors, like pop. density, socio-economic issues, etc. Now that I start thinking about it, I believe his stuff even went county by county. I'll have to have another look at it. I know there's a second edition.
 
Dr. Lott's book More Guns, Less Crime is a must-read for anyone interested in this subject. Lott used county-level data over several years to show the effects of CCW laws and their impact on violent crime. Almost universally, the net effect is lower crime when citizens are allowed to defend themselves with firearms wherever they go.

I believe Lott also showed that criminals in some areas switched from crimes against people to property crimes. It was a safer, if less lucrative, occupation.

Criminals may be dumb, but they're not always stupid. Remember some years ago several German tourists were killed in Florida? That was an "unintended consequence" (and probably unforseeable) of the Florida CCW laws. Criminals discovered that Floridians were willing to defend themselves and that made it unhealthy to attempt to victimize the state's residents. However, they did figure out that many European tourists came to visit Florida and with them they often brought cash, cameras, portable computers and other valuata.

Florida's criminal element switched to robbing foreign tourists since they would not be allowed to carry a firearm. Some of those arrested had memorized the arrival times of flights from Europe/UK origins and waited for them. Rental cars often sported bumperstickers or license plate frames advertizing the rental agency. Follow these rental cars until they stop somewhere condusive to robbery and take their valuables and/or rental car. Simple. The rental agencies have now removed their logos from the car and tried to minimize the "look" of a rental car.
 
To the anti-gun crowd, lower crime rates in areas allowing more freedom for gun owners is irrelevant. It is their emotional, not rational fear and hatred of guns that drives their position, not facts. I just returned from a visit to family members in New York City and surrounding areas, and ALL OF THESE PEOPLE love Mayor Bloomberg and strongly support his anti-gun positions. None of them, including my construction worker nephew, my brother (a retired executive, and my sister who owns a business in a crime ridden neighborhood) own a gun, or have any real familiarity with guns. Guns scare them since the only time they see or hear about a gun in the news is when it is used in a crime. Their fear has paralyzed them into accepting the anti-gun mantra of more and more gun control, hoping miraculously that someday the criminals will be without guns and the world will be wonderful. I have spent the last 30+ years trying to educate them on this subject, but have realized it is not a matter of education, or facts, but one of emotion that rules this argument. I wish I could get them to visit me and come to the range and at least experience for themself the act of firing a gun and de-mystifying these seemingly dangerous and vile items (in their mind). As I get older I realize that we will eventually lose all of our 2nd Amendment rights unless and untill we get a trend in our nation toward use of guns in hunting, target shooting or other endeavors that gives us a majority of urban folks who are not terrified of firearms.
 
We are thinking it may have something to do with the fact that we carry. Do you guys think there is any truth to this? It just seems odd that there is such a huge difference in robberies between these two areas for being so close to one another. Any thoughts?
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It is definetly due to the fact that PA is a "shall issue" CCW state. The criminals in Maryland know that most of the people here are unarmed. And the criminal knows his chances of getting shot is slim. I can guarentee you if Maryland becomes a shall issue state, the crime here will drop. The liberals in this state do not understand that.

What small town in Maryland are you talking about?
 
WSM, Sorry it took so long to get back to this thread. I've been thinking about it all day, but work has kept me busy. I am talking specifically about Hagerstown, MD.

I did a little research on the crime rates of these two states. Maybe I should have done this BEFORE starting the thread, but oh well.
(per 100k people - 2005)
PA
Violent Crimes: 424
Murder: 6.1
Robbery: 154
Agg. Assault: 235
Burglary: 451

MD
Violent Crimes: 703
Murder: 9.9
Robbery: 256
Agg. Assault: 413
Burglary: 641

Seems pretty statistically significant to me.
 
That looks like a big difference and all, but those numbers don't take into account things like socio-economics, population density, % of single parent homes, etc. These things contribute as well. IIRC, Mr. Lott accounted for these factors as well as just the crime numbers. Nevertheless, your numbers tell the tale. More guns... less crime. We must somehow convince the libs that this is so. My commie relatives in San Diego don't/won't/can't get it. You hit the nail on the head Vito - they let emotion rule their politics.
 
I live in Fort Washington, MD, a bedroom/commuter community about four miles due south of Washington DC.

Saturday morning DW and I were awakened by the sound of helicopters overhead. Now helos in and of themselves are not alarming - we're on the flight path from the White House to Quantico. But when they're circling and the bright white light streams through the blinds...

To make a long story short, some Bad Guys had attempted break-ins in a couple of houses via basement doors, and had actually accomplished a break-in where a single woman (common thread in all attempts) had her two kids. The woman dialed her ex-husband and dropped the phone so the ex could here the goings-on, and he called the county police.

The BGs ran into the police as they were kidnapping the woman at gun point with the (stated) intent of taking her to an ATM to empty her account, and the BGs fired on the police, and the woman got away from them unharmed.
The police never caught the BGs (all houses backed onto woods - the same woods my house backs on), and as far as I know, they're both still at large.

The upstart of all of this is that DW and I now answer the door with a loaded gun in our hands, and yet, there's no way we can get a carry permit in MD - OUR lives weren't threatened.

Not having a CCW permit didn't stop the BGs at all.

And in Washington DC, ALL handguns are illegal, and have been since (I think) 1972, yet there's no shortage of crooks committing armed robbery and armed assault/murder.

The good new is that the Prince George's County police have about the best track record in the country for shots fired/BGs hit.

The bad news is that they get about the most practice.

Cheers,
Rob

p.s., in a small note of irony, when the police saw me Saturday morning, I had three rifle cases in my hand as I was packing up to go to an Appleseed Minishoot on the Eastern Shore. They weren't the least bit alarmed.
 
Crime rates are generally dirrectly proportional to demographics. When one introduces CCW into an environment, the crime rate will generally decrease (eg., FL).
 
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