Could Our Economy Be Any Worse Than It Is Now??

L

LanceOregon

Moderator
My goodness, the Dow Jones almost lost 400 points today. We also learned today that unemployment had its biggest increase in 22 years last month.

A barrel of oil jumped $10 in price just today alone! Apparently an Israeli government statement that war with Iran was inevitable sent jitters into the market. My local gas station has raised its prices 5 times in the last week!!! Gas is nationally well over $4.00 a gallon, and it is now being predicted that it will hit $5.00 a gallon by the 4th of July!!

Prius automobiles have totally disappeared from Toyota dealers, despite the fact that Toyota doubled their production of the car a year and a half ago. Buyers are now being told they will have to wait months for one, or pay as much as $5,000 over list price.

On top of all of that, it was also reported today that a whopping 9 per cent of home mortgages in the nation are in serious trouble, and either already in foreclosure, or delinquent and risking foreclosure. These are all record setting numbers too.

Yet, there are prominent people still claiming that our economy is not in a recession. And our Congress still cannot come up with any comprehensive energy plan either.

Am I being too pessimistic here??

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/06/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5j4d9FmxF40RCW29DA98__mpbIgWw

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/06/news/economy/gas_prices/?postversion=2008060621

http://www.startribune.com/business/19474989.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/05/AR2008060501501.html


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Have a little faith, man.

No economy is so bad that it couldn't get worse. :D:p

Seriously though, it is in bad shape - there's less and less room to deny it all the time. And though it could get worse in the short term, just wait 'til President Obama "fixes" the problem. You ain't seen nothin' yet. :barf:
 
we are not in a recession according to the

Treasury Department. Although I never heard the TD get into forecasting the economy before this report. I think someone in Washington want us to believe this is just our imagination.

The recession model claims it requires two successive quarters of declining GNP to be a recession.

Remember its always darkest before it goes completly black.
 
It almost seems like the Democratic controlled Congress does want to take any truly meaningful action now.

I guess they want to wait for Obama to take office, so he will then get all the credit.

It is amazing how they continue to reject any new Nuclear power stations or hydroelectric plants, when they are both proven alternative methods of generating electricity, and don't have the environmental impact that burning more oil and coal has.

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It WILL get worse. Time for locking gas caps, self defense measures, home defense measures. I don't know how many remember '73 but it could be all of that and worse.

No problem here, plenty of shells/cartridges in all gauges and calibers. Covered from 6ft. to 600 yds.
 
Swampghost - When the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.

I'm sorry, but shooting things is not going to improve our economy. While it is admirable that you seem to be self-sufficient and prepared; fixing our economy is going to require something far more difficult than fighting off looters.

We need to educate ourselves and vote people into office on a local, state and national level that understand the problem and, more importantly, know how to fix it. Both of the major-party presidential candidates have ZERO experience running things like cites or states, so none of them fit this description.

I am not optimistic about the short-term future of our country. :(

B.O. will take credit for any economic upturn and blame any downturn on Bush. We're in for a tough decade or so. I expect a decent turn around in 2016-2018 or so.
 
Hopefully things will not get as bad as when Jimmy Carter was President:

Inflation was 11-12%.

Mortgage rates were 17-18% for a 30-year fixed.

Unemployment was over 7%.

The top income tax bracket was 70%

Compared to those years, things today aren't all that bad.
 
Awwwww the innocence of youth. Things are slow but unemployment is still low. Gas is dang high but adjusted for inflation still not as bad as bad as people think - and not half as high as it's going to get. The Dems' refusal to allow drilling will see to that. On the upside I have yet to see block long lines and fist fights over gas in oh at least 30 years. That's when you'll know it's bad.

I'm old enough to remember the post Vietnam recession. All of a sudden an entire military industrial complex that had been running 3 shifts/day 7 days per week had no more orders. All of the defense industry states were hit hard! I was just a simple defense plant tool maker and I couldn't get a job in a gas station making minimum wage because laid-off engineers etc already had those jobs. I lived on Kraft mac & cheese and stove top stuffing for about 6 months. I'm not seeing that many people that unemployed or that broke yet. I'm told that construction trades are hurting but it took me two months to find a pair of handymen to do a weeks worth of well paid work. The rest were too busy to bother with jobs that small. No I don't see record breaking pain... What I see is belt tightening.

The Jimmy Carter years gave us double digit inflation on nearly everything. I'm fuzzy but if memory serves up around 11-12% per year! The government says we're under 4%, I figure closer to 6%. We're not in that boat - yet. Continue deficit spending and printing money and we will be. 30yr fixed mortgages for at 15-17! Some were paying as much as 25% for a second!

So since I'm old enough to have a little perspective I'll say no we're not in the worst recession ever. The press is just painting it that way to scare people into voting for their guy. If they get their man you may even get to experience a little of that for yourself. ;)
 
So since I'm old enough to have a little perspective I'll say no we're not in the worst recession ever. The press is just painting it that way to scare people into voting for their guy. If they get their man you may even get to experience a little of that for yourself.
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I remember the Carter years, too. Easy times they were not.

Yes, the economy has dipped and fewer folks are living high on the hog, but I can still afford to drive thirty minutes to the rifle range and burn through a few boxes of ammo. I havent seen a run on mac & cheese or stove-top stuffing yet.

As for the mortgage crisis, the market is correcting itself after a long run of irresponsible lending and buying. Kinda like a long night of drinking...and the folks who really could not afford to buy a house and the banks who lent them to money are complaining about the hang over.
 
The economy is not anywhere nearly as bad off as during Carter's reign and it is not nearly as bad as it will be as it is trending now. We are facing some truly ghastly events if things continue uncorrected. My concern is our three evident presidential candidates are incapable of separating themselves from the special interests which have placed us in our current situation. :mad:
 
It will get much worse and perhaps that is what is necessary for the public to work for change we've been on this road for past 20 years, outsourcing, loss of manufacturing, importing slave labor, simply greed on the part of corporations and stock holders controlling government with lobbyist and yes special interest groups such as environmentalist, we cannot continue with our current policies unless we want to become a third world country.

My suggestions would be stop buying junk products from China and get out of debt no matter what it takes, we the consumer hold the key but it takes sacrifice and work, government and their handlers large corporations want you in debt spending money on junk cell phone and toys that poison that fail within 90 days they have built their fortune on our ignorance.

Swampghoast was correct if unemployment goes above 7% you will be guarding anything you own because we certainly have an element in this country who will steal to have what they believe they deserve, my opinions of course but I've been watching and taking part in this country for a lot of years and never seen a time when it appears to be sitting on a powder keg with the fuse lit.
 
Lance,

1. Stock market is correcting itself. The market goes up and then it goes down and then up. When it goes down, it is a good time to fill up your SEP or Roth.

2. Gas prices are high because of lack of supply and refining capacity. If you want prices to go down tell the ecoweenies and EPA to get stuffed and get out of our way.

3. Prius automobiles are selling out? Ummm, O.K., good one of my SEPs as it holds Toyota stock, but how is selling cars a sign of a weak economy???

4. Foreclosures are high because of NINA loans and banks giving mortgages to people without assets, income or teeth. I want the foreclosure correction to hurt. It will teach the fools at banks to be more responsible and stop their record setting stupidity. If we want it to get better, we need to keep government a million miles away.

5. We are not in a recession. The economy has slowed down but we are not in a recssion. Last week I heard some woman babble on how the "depression" we are in--no, you may be in depression because you bought a plasma television instead of paying your mortgage, but we are not.

6. Congress does not have a "comprehensive plan"? Oh my!

You are expecting a 5 year plan? Maybe orders to the economy from the Commissar of Central Planning?

While public schools may teach it, Congress does not plan our economy. If Congress wants to help (and it doesn't), then get out of our way.

Want an immediate impact on the economy to stimulate growth, employment and hope? Abolish the capital gains tax, money would flow into the country like a flooded river. Let the Productive Class get back to being productive and get out of our way.
 
The problem here is that the dollar is getting weaker, because the government is printing more and more of it (the "stimulus" checks) and we keep (as a nation) borrowing and spending like a group of drunken sailors on shore leave.

I don't see gas prices getting any better for at least a few years. Building refineries takes time, and the other factor (oil prices) will get worse as world (read:China) oil demand increases and the dollar continues to fall. This will have continued ripple effects throughout the economy. Inflation caused by this will continue to climb.

The problem with Prius sales climbing is that the Prius is selling for more than sticker price. This means that the owners will be upside down on the car coupling that with the fact that people are trading in larger vehicles to get rid of the gas guzzler.

The failure of the mortgage industry means more than "teaching banks a lesson" it means that the investors in these mortgages, including retirement plans and pension funds, will lose their investments. This means many more problems as the effects ripple through the economy.

A recession is defined as a decline in a country's real gross domestic product (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year. The economy grew by a modest 0.7 percent for the fourth quarter of 2007, and shrank by 0.3 percent for the first quarter of this year. All indicators show that the second quarter will be worse. We are in a recession, but until the National Bureau of Economic Research releases the numbers, it isn't an official one.

Eliminating the capitol gains tax, a move that the dems call a "tax cut for the rich" is not going to happen under the democrat congress/ president we are going to get.

It isn't the end of the world, but we are in for a few rocky years.
 
Everything is more expensive suddenly, but it has a lot to do with that China and other countries are beginning to gain financial strength. They have money now to buy the oil Americans want, so now Americans have to pay up more to make sure they get their hands on it.

The value of American producs are going down. But of course! With a lot of the work force being illegal Mexicans without education nowadays, what else can the result be? The past ten years the housing market has been flooded by Mexicans who can't use a hammer but still they get to build the homes. To no surprise houses fetch a lower and lower price on the market because they are poorly built. Many people rather want a house built several decades ago to ensure original American quality. The low quality of many other American products can be traced back to the people assembling the products or performing the services, which means the products are basically Mexican, and who wants to pay high dollar for that? The salaries go down to meet the lower demand and unemployment rises, plus all the illegals, people not visible in the statistics, are the ones responsible for that Americans don't have the jobs they used to have. America will become Mexico, with it's standards, salaries and quality. Are the Europeans and Japanese willing to pay high dollar for Mexican products? No. Look forward to the same unemployment as in Mexico. Throw in some leftwing Latino politics and America are heading for disaster.

Where will the Latinos run to when America has been dragged down to the same standard they originally fled from? Australia?
 
I Remember 1981

According to a economics professor I had later in grad school we came very close to a depression! It was much worse then! I bought my first house in 1984 and the interest rate was 12.25%!!!!!! I refinanced in 1987 for 9%!!!!!!!!! Chill out, it will get better but not like the '90s.
 
I don't think the constant negative articles the media delights in do anything but help make a recession a self fulfilling prophesy.


If Obama gets elected the massive tax increases that will be required to fund all the social programs he's suggesting certainly won't help the economy.
 
Yes and it's heading that way! If I do this right, I will only need to come up with my land , electic, gas and beer money!:cool:
 
just wait 'til President Obama "fixes" the problem. You ain't seen nothin' yet.
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I don't know that Obama is going to be able to "fix it" or even have much effect on it. I have a feeling that it may take multiple terms from several Presidents to actually fix it. That's a scary thought huh?
 
Could our economy be worse then it is?

Sure. I still have a job!;)

Seriously, it sure can get worse. Anyone ever hear of something called "the Great Depression"? Kind of had an impact on the whole world for a generation directly, and indirectly ever since due to the memories of those who lived through it. That depression ultimately brought us FDR's New Deal, the Nazis, and WW II, among other things.

Today we have a host of laws and social programs in place that did not exist then, so if/when we do crash, it won't be exactly like it was then. But it will be pretty bad, for a lot of folks.

I, too remember 1973, and I remember the Carter years. Neither were good times for many of us, but we lived through them, and we will live through this downturn as well. The real danger is that in our blind groping for an instant way "out" of something that took years to create, we will elect those who's promise of a "fix" turns out to be something quite different than we expect. The Germans looked to strong leadership to get them out of their depression, and wound up with Adolph Hitler and the Nazis. A decade and a half earlier, the Russians had similar troubles (complicated by their system) and wound up with Communism ruling their nation.
may take multiple terms from several Presidents to actually fix it.
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This quote is typical of the general mindset of much of the country, and makes a critical basic flaw in the assumption that the President(s) actually control our economy. Just as the media blames them for things that don't go well, and they take crredit when thing do go well, they do have some influence, but they do not have any direct degree of control, no matter what they claim. Our economy is made up of much more than just what our government controls, it is made of each one of us who spends money. Those with the most money to throw around have the greatest influence, but even the US govt doesn't have actual control. They can shape policy, and direct the way we head, in general, but they can neither start nor stop the direction of our economy. They can influence the general rate of change, but it is the private sector in this country and around the world that makes things actually change. Confidence, or the lack of the same in our money, our economy, and our political leadership is what drives people with money to use that money to make more money, or to sit on it, keeping it for themselves. The Fed Gov can influence this, but they cannot control it, under the laws as they currently exist. There is a danger that because of the demands of people for them to be able to control it that laws will be changed, allowing them the direct hands on control that they will tell us they need to "fix" the problem. And if we give them that, we are all in for a very bad time, even the wealthy will find themselves further under the thumb of authority than they are used to. It has happened before, it can happen again, and it can happen here.
 
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