Let us compare Baltimore to Seattle. Both are port cities in the middle of a metro area of several million people. Baltimore has a population of 634,279 and Seattle has a population of 575,816 [from the FBI UCR]. Both cities have a police department of about 1,200 officers. Baltimore is 81 square miles, and Seattle is 84 square miles [per Census]. The number of households and home ownership rate [from Census] for the two cities are startlingly close.
Cities
What is crime like in Seattle? According to the 2004 FBI Uniform Crime Report, Table 8, of the 33 cities with a population over 500K, Seattle is #29 in murder (4.2 per 100K), #21 in robbery (276 per 100K), and #24 in aggravated assault (354 per 100K).
Crime in Baltimore? Of the 33 cities with a population over 500K, Baltimore is #1 in murder (43.5 per 100K), #2 in robbery (639 per 100K), and #1 in aggravated assault (1,129 per 100K).
MSAs
Let’s drop back to the MSAs, or Metropolitan Statistical Areas, surrounding Baltimore and Seattle for further crime comparison in Table 6 of the FBI UCR.
For the 3,178,846 people of the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue MSA, murder is 3.2 per 100K, robbery is 136 per 100K, and aggravated assault is 219 per 100K.
For the 2,639,571 people of the Baltimore-Towson MSA, murder is 12.5 per 100K, robbery is 262 per 100K, and aggravated assault is 588 per 100K.
States
Well, let’s look at the statewide numbers in Table 5 of the FBI UCR.
Washington is #32 in murder (3.1 per 100K), #25 in robbery (95 per 100K), and #30 in aggravated assault (200 per 100K).
Maryland is #2 in murder (9.4 per 100K), #1 in robbery (230 per 100K), and #7 in aggravated assault (438 per 100K).
Comparison
Maryland has 3 times the murder rate, almost 2.5 times the robbery rate, and more than double the aggravated assault rate as those of Washington.
Baltimore MSA has almost 4 times the murder rate, almost double the robbery rate, and more than 2.5 times the aggravated assault rate as those of the Seattle MSA.
City of Baltimore has more than 10 times the murder rate, more than double the robbery rate, and more than 3 times the aggravated assault rate as those of the City of Seattle.
I still cannot even grasp that. Ten times the murder rate. I had to check and recheck to make certain I didn’t flub something.
Summary
So what’s different? Well, for one thing, Washington state has the 5th highest concentration, among the 50 states, of concealed carry licensees. 1 in 21 adults (age 21 and up) in the state of Washington has a license to carry. I suspect Florida or Texas are the two states people think of first then they think about concealed carry. Florida is #11 (1 in 36 adults) and Texas is #22 (1 in 64 adults). Oh, and Washington state has been Shall Issue since 1961. Florida didn’t get started until 1987–Texas was 1996–but the number of licensees in all three states has been relatively flat now for several years.
