Am I the only one that thinks milsurp prices are in a "bubble"?

T

tobnpr

New member
The more I look at some prices being asked (and often, paid) for common rifles that are double- or more- than what they were just a year ago, the more I scratch my head and believe this is becoming nothing but another investment "bubble"...Driven not by a collector's desire to add a particular rifle to a collection, but rather by fear that "if I don't buy it now, it'll only get more expensive", and just as likely by those believing this crazy jump in prices still has legs and are looking to make a quick buck by reselling.

I just don't "buy" the rationale that "they don't make any more of them" yada yada...
Nothing has fundamentally changed in that regard from just a few years ago when rusted out, bashed up pieces of crizap that were sold as U-Fix-Em's by Century as parts guns for $50, are suddenly worth four times that much? They weren't "making any more" of these three or four years ago, either.

C'mon.

Sorry....I don't buy it. Does anyone really think, that a re-worked Yugo Mauser will be worth $500? Or that an SKS that was less than "only" $200 a couple of years ago (and a lot less than that, not much earlier), now selling for over $400- will really be worth a grand someday in the near future?

Or that the lowly Turks- like the Spanish- still can't be given away, will suddenly be "in vogue" with collectors? I mean, they ain't making any more of them- so why not?

I've felt Bill Gross has been right for years with regard to stocks...nothing but a herd mentality driving prices up because they can, with no basis whatsoever in fundamentals- and I'm convinced the same thing is happening here. Of course, just as the markets may reverse short term- eventually, reality sets in. May not be this year, or next- but this has to change, it is simply unsustainable; any rational person can plainly see this.

When I see a Mosin-Nagant M38 carbine, FAIR condition, being priced at $695.00, and a Chinese T-53- not even numbers matching- for $295.00 at Simpson, I know this "hobby" has gone nutz.

But hey, as the saying goes, "I was wrong once before"...and to those of you paying top dollar, at the top of this market (at least, I think it is)- good luck.

Flame suit on!! Let's go!
 
Sounds like panic-buying, from Obama's legislative "scorched earth" policy on Gun Control. He's the best "market stimulus" the firearms and ammo manufacturers have ever enjoyed (so far). Expect it to get worse if the Dems win the whitehouse.
 
Twenty Years Ago

Norinco/China Sport versions of the SKS $79.99 or buy two for $149.99 at a local gun store.
What are they going for now? If my memory serves me when the federal government stopped the importation the prices jumped.
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It's only a "bubble" if it bursts. Otherwise, its a "plateau" or a "new level", etc.

And, it IS true, they aren't making any more of them. Here's what they are making more of, people who want them, and (now, especially) MONEY.

Part of the situation is the fact that our money isn't worth what it used to be.

Profiteering also plays a big part, but that is how capitalism works. Don't call it gouging, it's not. Gouging only applies to unreasonably high prices on things you HAVE to buy.

There is still a huge interest today, that started expanding during the 50th anniversary of the end of WWII, and has kept going ever since. Popular movies boost it, every time Saving Private Ryan, Band of Brothers, Enemy at he Gates, etc., runs on TV some more people think they want one of the old guns.

And, if you only have a few crates of them left, not the warehouse full you had 30 years ago, you are going to sell them as dearly as the market will accept.

Most of the really good condition guns have been sold, many, ages ago. Dealers are, literally scraping the bottom of the barrel, and since demand is still high, prices are insane.

When I see $695 for a "fair" condition rifle, and have a pristine one at home that I paid $75 for, or one I paid $125 for going for $1100 (fair) and $1400 (good, but not quite as nice as the one I have, ;)), I am very tempted to put mine on the market. What stops me is, I'm not desperate for the money, and (more importantly) I could only replace them at current high prices, and I'm not willing to do that.

It might be a bubble, but remember that you can get more money, easier than you can find a good price on what is becoming an ever scarcer commodity. Look at the prices on Lugers, for one example.
 
The bubble may not break, but asking price and getting price are two different things. Get on Gunbroker and watch some of the same guns pop up over and over.
 
I might believe this was a bubble that would break somewhere in the future, if there were stockpile of milsurp guns someplace, but if you look around is seems the stocks on everything have disappeared. Just a couple of years ago it seemed that every dealer had something to sell, and you could't even turn around without tripping over a crate of Mosin 91/30s.

I can't believe that everyone is sitting on their stock at this point when prices are a sellers dream. Plus we are seeing some big dealers like Samco and Widners folding or abandoning milsurp sales. The few dealers that have guns to sell are primarily filling their stocks out of private collections.

I think higher prices may be here to stay. You had better cough up that $300 for that Chinese T53. You will be kicking yourself 5 years from now when they are selling for $600 for not buying 2. :)
 
You also have newer shooters in the market who are not aware of what these old guns cost just a few years ago, they simply don't know any better and pay the asking price. Simply without realizing it is inflated for the sake of profit, rather than reasonable value for that particular firearm.
 
"...unreasonably high prices on things you HAVE to buy..." Like gasoline. Everything else is primarily supply and demand. Even with the assorted anti-firearm ownership politicians involved.
Your Yugo Mauser, for example, hasn't been made since 1965(Zastava's are commercial) and all governments are slowly ending the international milsurp trade. Some milsurps are just gone or only the crap nobody wants being left. Once those are gone, there ain't no more.
 
most are collectors or folks looking to buy a decent gun at a low price. as service and parts become more scarce, people will that the one well priced CZ mod 70 .32acp that was once a good deal at $159 just isn't such a good (practical) deal at $275 considering what is currently manufactured here.

the Yugo SKS is a good example for a low cost good gun that has now crept up in price to the point of adding only $100 to current asking prices can get you an AK-47 or AR-15.
 
Yes, prices have been rising on MilSurp. weapons of all types for the past few years, but I don't see that changing anytime soon. Cheap surplus weapons have always been a good source for the "customization" or "bubba" market and one reason that, in many cases, remaining great examples of some demand premium prices. That doesn't justify some of the prices seen at some gunshows recently.

That being said, I personally remember the days when cherry o3A3's went for $25, Johnson Automatic Rifles for $65 and Enfield .303 British Mk's sold for $15 each by the crate. Then the prices rose to $75. and everyone said "The glory days are over"

Choose wisely and enjoy them while they're still are around. I don't see much of a surplus market for M4's around the corner, do you?
 
There is a bubble at the low end, surplus in poor to fair condition that most collectors will not purchase. Instead, newbies are buying it up, and a newbie is born every minute, you know. That bubble will burst one by one as the newbies go to sell or trade, and learn the hard way.

Original milsurps in very good condition have no bubble. You will recoup your investment on them, provided you weren't reckless.

If you can only afford one nice piece in a year, you're better off than buying two or three poorer specimens for the same money. In 50 years, that's 50 nice firearms, not bad at all.
 
There is a bubble at the low end, surplus in poor to fair condition that most collectors will not purchase. Instead, newbies are buying it up, and a newbie is born every minute, you know. That bubble will burst one by one as the newbies go to sell or trade, and learn the hard way.
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Don't bet on it: Years ago, Walter Craig of Selma, AZ used to sell crates of eight Berthier rifles for $40.00, and they were pure junk. Try to find even a crappy Berthier today for under $200.00.

Century Arms U-fixem Lee-Enfields were about $16.00 in the 90s, and now, having had a few parts added, are seldom under $250.00.

Ditto for Carcanos, Jap rifles, and a whole bunch of others.

What the newbies will find out is, if they clean up their "junkers," they will make money as things disappear completely, and more "newbies" are born who want the stuff.

I paid $15.00 for my first Luger 52 years ago. It was hanging on a post in a country grocery store whose owner took guns in trade for groceries. It was certainly no prize, but it was a Luger. Today, that gun is probably worth 800-900 dollars, being a 1913 and all matching.

Finally, if the gun is rare enough, a collector will purchase a poor to fair gun until he can find something better.
 
I'm 18 and from my point of view it's very easy to see how one could have the "buy it now, before they're gone" mentality. I'm kinda on that side of the fence as well. I never got to see the $50 Mosin's, $75 SKS's, $200 Norinco AK's, massive .303 Brit surpluses, etc... that most of y'all did. Now even 7.62x54R is hard to find. I would like to start a milsurp collection, but when these once cheap rifles are now going for $200, $400, $1200, it's very discouraging to even start. I mean, I see Enfields in bottom of the barrel condition selling for $350 all day long. How long until the CMP runs out of Garands? When will the last of the Mosin-Nagants in Combloc storage be sold or sporterized?
 
Looking over the 475 page auction list for Samco's bankruptcy gives me hope that there will soon be many new surplus rifles on the market.

Should be a fun time to buy. Ready your credit cards!

TK

In case anyone is actually reading this, I post the link to Samco's auction. It's not a public auction, but the rumor is that one of the big distributers will buy everything. If what is listed is really there then there will be some new surplus to hit the market.

http://static.auctionservices.com/documents/148074/3550-INV.pdf
 
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I think part of the issue is that there are not going to be many semi-auto replacements for the guns that have typically been available. Most of the upcoming eligible military rifles are going to be select fire or full-auto variants. These will not be available for us to purchase.

I could be wrong, but this would seem like a logical supply issue which would cause prices to rise on the remaining semi-auto variants.
 
from my point of view it's very easy to see how one could have the "buy it now, before they're gone" mentality.
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The guns themselves won't be gone, thought they will get scarce. What gets "gone" is the gun at a reasonable price. Like any other commodity, the smaller the supply, the higher the price.

The common as, and cheap as dirt GI issue Krag/Springfield/etc. that was $15 or $20 when they were everywhere are now $800+ collectibles, and seldom seen. BUT you can still get one, if you can PAY for it.

And its not just milsurps, you know. There are a lot of discontinued sporting arms that are still in demand by shooters, despite the factories dropping them.

And also the mentality that everything no longer made is collectible, and VALUABLE. As soon as something goes out of production, (because they weren't selling enough), it becomes a seller's market. And a lot of the sellers are entirely profit motivated.

When the Winchester plant announced it was closing, EVERYTHING with the name Winchester got bumped up in price by the very next week at every gun show I went to. $100-200 bump in the asking price of guns (including all the NIB guns, because "they ain't makin these any more"...
 
I never got to see the $50 Mosin's, $75 SKS's, $200 Norinco AK's, massive .303 Brit surpluses, etc...
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LOL!! If you really want to be grossed out, find some American Rifleman mags from the mid 60s and look at the ads from Hunter's Lodge (Sam Cummings Interamco). Lee-Enfields, $14.95, Mosin Nagants, $14.95, Webley & Scott revolvers $14.95, Lugers $39.95, Garands, $59.95, etc., etc.

As an 18 year old kid making $1.25 an hour, all I could do was dream.
 
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No kidding, I just missed out on a $29.95 Luger when the 1968 GCA came in, mowed lawns for a while and had over $20 in the kitty when mail order shut down forever.

Didn't get one for 20 years, certainly cost more than $29.95 by then. I think even the sales tax was a couple dollars more than the 1968 purchase price.

Certainly was a better pistol than the surplus sales, though, a 1937 byf with a 3 digit serial number, still with grease in the barrel. The previous owner had liberated it from a presentation case in the home of a Third Reich official on the day of his arrest by the Army during the 'cleanup' in late 1945.
 
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