Well, since no one is answering...
I'll chip in some second hand info.
I'll start off by saying that I never personally have owned a 9mm carbine, but I have a couple friends who do.
One has the Marlin Camp 9mm and the other a newer Ruger (PC9?).
Both agree that the heavier 147gr JHPs are the way to go if accuracy is the primary issue.
I initially figured this was just asking for over-penetration issues until I realized the 147gr JHP actually does achieve sufficient velocity out of a carbine barrel to reliably expand.
One said he would have no problems using the 124gr JHPs, but preferred the 147gr JHPs just as the other does due to the fact his rifle seems to group them better.
Personally, I would figure the 115gr would over-expand and fragment out of a carbine-length barrel, and that same increased velocity would my both the 124gr and 147gr ideal for defensive purposes.
Hope this helps....